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Picture-1 – see how the price of aluminium metal is rising on the US exchanges

Picture-2 – see how the share prices of US and Chinese peers, the aluminium companies Alcoa (first chart) and Chalco (second chart), have performed


 

Picture-3 – see how the Hong Kong Exchange large-cap market index has moved*:

* As the Hong Kong market developed, a series of indices based on issuers’ regions and industries and the liquidity of their shares emerged to reflect the performance of various types of stocks listed in Hong Kong. The S&P/HKEx LargeCap Index is composed of 25 stocks representing about 75 per cent of the total market capitalisation of the Main Board.

And now, Picture-4 – see how United Company Rusal has fallen, in the opposite direction to aluminium and the largecap index, and more sharply than Alcoa and Chalco:



Toby’s calculation of Rusal’s current net value

At the current share price of HK$7.58,
Rusal’s market capitalization = HK$114.73 billion,
or US$14.77 billion.
Rusal’s liabilities as of Prospectus date
= US$19.1 billion
Rusal’s payments to creditors out of IPO
Proceeds = US$2.143 billion
Balance of liabilities = US$16.96 billion
Net value of Rusal = minus US$2.19 billion

Toby’s calculation of Oleg Deripaska’s position in Rusal:

Post-Prospectus shareholding of 47.99% x market capitalization of US$14.77 billion
= US$7.1 billion
Less Michael Chernoy’s UK High Court claim for US$4.3 billion

= US$2.8 billion

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