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By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with [2]
The caution which the ancient Greek philosopher Socrates showed in his method of argument by posing questions instead of answers didn’t protect him in the end from Athenian conviction and the death penalty.
That old, scarred, but honourable soldier went to trial and lost. He was condemned for impiety – introducing alternatives for the local gods – and for corrupting the youth of Athens by encouraging them to challenge the power of authority to deter disbelief and reward compliance.
When the KGB allegedly gave me the codename Socrates forty years ago, they may have been condemning me for asking questions, or convicting me. When the FBI investigated, they acquitted [3] me. When Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov expelled me from Moscow in September 2010 and recently extended the ban without end, he convicted me of what one of his officials said was “writing bad things about our country”.
So asking the questions is still what I am doing; and here is the question-and-answer on who wins, who loses in the outcome of the wars in Iran and Ukraine. Listen or view the podcast with Nima Alkhorshid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QRJnmH68Jw8 [4]
The Socratic method of asking what the evidence means, and asking more (and more) questions of the meaning of the evidence to those with power – money, votes and bullets – is the opposite of believing in mainstream (or alternative) authority, trusting in gods, following paymasters and party commissars, or dropping stones in wishing wells and hoping to hear the splash.
It’s also до свидания Alexander Dugin, Jiang Xueqin, John Mearsheimer, Andrew Napolitano, and the Gunners Shot generals – fabricators of empires without imperialism; apocalypse without Armageddon; messiahs for gospels they will sell you for five dollars a month.
To substantiate the podcast, the evidence follows if you click to turn the page.
[5]“For his part, the US President shared his assessment of developments in the context of the ongoing US-Israeli operation. I would note that a very substantive – and, I believe, useful – exchange of views took place on this matter. President Trump once again expressed interest in bringing the conflict in Ukraine to an end as soon as possible by achieving a ceasefire that would open the way to a long-term settlement. On our side, a positive assessment was given of the mediation efforts undertaken by Donald Trump’s team and by him personally” -- http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79294 [6]
[7]“The President of Russia has reaffirmed his principled stance in favour of de-escalating the conflict as soon as possible and resolving it via political means. Masoud Pezeshkian expressed gratitude for the support provided by Russia, including in particular the humanitarian aid granted to Iran” -- http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79307 [8]
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[10]Source: https://x.com/kadmitriev [11]
[12]Source: https://x.com/MedvedevRussiaE?lang=en [13]
[14]“The Kremlin has no comment on accusations that it passed intelligence to Tehran amid escalating tensions in the Middle East, Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov told reporters. ‘We have no comment on this matter,’ he said when asked about the Kremlin's reaction to the claims. Peskov did not specify whether the issue was discussed during yesterday's conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US leader Donald Trump. ‘We have already shared everything we intended to disclose about the substance of the conversation,’ he noted -- https://tass.com/politics/2099133 [15]
[16]Source: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/charted-oil-trade-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-country/ [17]
[18] “India has instructed state-owned enterprises to consider withholding clean product exports. China has ordered refiners to cut March product exports almost entirely. If China exits product export markets, no ready substitute exists - US terminal and specification constraints prevent it from filling the gap at scale… Jet fuel is the most acute pressure point. Singapore prices have climbed to ~$230/barrel (+140%). If crude had tracked jet fuel's proportional move, Brent would trade around $175. Instead it remains in the low-to-mid $80s - a gap reflecting markets still treating this as a temporary disruption rather than a structural supply shock. European and UK buyers face jet supply-at-risk exposure of close to 80% of normal import flows from the region…The combination of supply disruption, low European gas storage, and tightening product markets is already softening enforcement of EU sanctions on Russian-derived products. Cargoes of Jamnagar-processed diesel, potentially refined from Russian crude, have cleared in Mediterranean and Northwest European ports. If the conflict persists beyond two to three weeks, informal relaxation of enforcement appears probable. The likelihood of Russian energy re-entering European supply chains now stands at approximately 30% - up sharply from near-negligible levels prior to the conflict. India is reportedly already mulling the idea of ramping up buying of Russian crude oil…The market's muted price response reflects an assumption the disruption will be short-lived. Every additional day of closure narrows the window for an orderly resolution. No combination of bypass routes, strategic reserves, floating storage, and alternative suppliers can replace 16 Mbd of Persian Gulf export capacity on any practical timeline. When that reality reaches futures markets - as it already has in physical ones - the price adjustment will be sharp.Beyond the immediate crisis, a diplomatic resolution alongside accelerating US production growth points toward a well-supplied market in late 2025 and into 2026. Getting there, however, will require navigating one of the most volatile supply environments in a generation” -- https://www.kpler.com/blog/middle-east-conflict---oil-market-implications-a-continuing-assessment [19]
[20]Source: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116202054617775180 [21]
[22]Source: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116206683370194686 [23]
[24]Source: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116206732840510472 [25]
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[27]Source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/issues/inflation [28]