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By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with [2]
The war to end all wars is a refrain which began with the British in 1914. It was a domestic political ploy [3] to convince those who should pay and then die.
They paid, they died, and though the line was discredited within a decade, they still pay. Nowadays, the British (not only them) are persuaded that if they pay, the Russians will die.
When the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced [4] on Tuesday morning that the terms on which the Russian Army will stop advancing across the Ukraine must be “for many generations to come”, he was talking to the Russians, not to the Americans, Europeans or Ukrainians. “We highly appreciate the efforts of US President Trump and his administration,” Peskov added, “and we want to solve our security problems for many generations to come.”
Putin had explained [5] the night before in Moscow. The Europeans (he included the British) “have no peace agenda; they are on the side of war. Even when they ostensibly attempt to introduce amendments to Trump’s proposals, we see this clearly – all their amendments are directed towards one single aim: to completely obstruct this entire peace process, to put forward demands that are utterly unacceptable to Russia (they understand this), and thereby subsequently to place the blame for the collapse of the peace process upon Russia. That is their objective. We see this plainly.”
The conclusion for Russians is obvious, Putin added [5]. “If Europe wants to wage a war against us and suddenly starts a war with us, we are ready. There should be no doubt about that. The only question is if Europe suddenly starts a war against us, I think very quickly…Europe is not Ukraine. In Ukraine, we are acting with surgical precision. You see my point, don’t you? It is not a war in the direct, modern sense of the word. If Europe suddenly decides to go to war against us and actually follows through with it, then a situation may arise very quickly where we will be left with no one to negotiate with.”
Putin was making the same point for President Donald Trump and his generals to hear. The warning is nuclear war, or the Oreshnik [6], or both.
In point of fact, according to the latest opinion polls, Russians believe the US to be the far greater enemy to Russia than the European alliance; the Ukraine trails in third place. Also, the opinion polls reveal, public trust in the decision-making of President Vladimir Putin, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, the government and the parliament has begun to turn downwards. This is a caution that a temporary deal with the US, on terms paying cash rewards to the Trump family and to the Russian oligarchs, but do not end the economic warfare at once and restart the fighting within five years, will be unacceptable.
The picture of Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner smiling across the table at Putin, Yury Ushakov and Kirill Dmitriev on Tuesday afternoon is understood by Russian voters to show the enemy’s money is doing the talking. The absence from the Kremlin table of the Russian generals with whom Putin was talking at their command post on Monday [7] is not the reassurance Peskov intended to give.
Click to view the new discussion [8] with Nima Alkhorshid of the precedents for peace-making and for continuing the war against Russia, which were first set at the Versailles conference after World War I, and then in the capitulation documents for the defeated German and Japanese in 1945. It is by these standards, and what we recognise of their failure to solve Russia’s “security problems for many generations to come”, that Russians are judging the latest round of table talks.
[9]Click for podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYhdga8IiFg [8]
The Kremlin talks, previously announced for 2 pm Moscow time, did not commence for another three hours. They then continued for five hours, according to Ushakov.
He was cautious towards the four new US term-sheets which were tabled [10]: “Some things caused criticism, and the President also did not hide our critical, even negative attitude towards a number of proposals. But the main thing is that a very useful discussion took place. And most importantly, I would like to emphasize once again that the parties have declared their readiness to continue working together to achieve a long-term peaceful settlement in Ukraine… So far, no compromise has been found. But some American developments look more or less acceptable. But they need to be discussed. Some of the formulations that have been proposed to us are not suitable for us. That is, the work will continue. This [new border and demilitarized zone definition] is indeed one of the most important issues.”
[11]Source: http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/78638 [10]
In Washington, Trump told [12] the press he had no information from Witkoff and Kushner. “Not an easy situation, let me tell you… No update, because I’ve been spending too much time with you”. There was no immediate reaction from Trump in the hours following the close of the Kremlin talks [13]. “They will return home”, Ushakov concluded [10] his briefing for reporters, “discuss the issues that were raised today, and then, as I believe, they will contact us by phone, we will continue the discussion.”
For background on the terms for limiting German territory and the Germany military following World War I, read the Treaty of Versailles of June 19, 1919, here [14]. The caps on the German army, navy and air forces start at Part V, page 115. Limits on munitions follow at page 117.
For the military limits imposed on Japan after the capitulation of 1945, read this [15].
[16]The signing of Japan’s surrender documents, September 2, 1945 [17].
The newly available domestic polls mentioned in the podcast show that Russians are deeply suspicious of the intentions of the American enemy, and wary of any concessions by Russian officials to allow a temporary ceasefire; failure to implement de jure recognition of the new territories; demilitarization of the Ukrainian territory, including the removal of NATO forces; and the denazification of the Ukrainian regime to follow demobilization, end to martial law, and new elections.
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[19]Source: https://www.levada.ru/2025/11/28/rejtingi-noyabrya2025-goda-odobrenie-organov-vlasti-doverie-politikam-rejtingi-partij/ [20] “The level of trust in Vladimir Putin was 48%. Almost every fifth [respondent] trusts Mikhail Mishustin and Sergei Lavrov (19% and 17%, respectively). Five percent of respondents express trust [20] of [Defense Minister] Andrei Belousov; [Moscow Mayor] Sergei Sobyanin, [Communist Party leader] Gennady Zyuganov and [ex-President] Dmitry Medvedev are at 3% of respondents; Dmitry Peskov, [Duma Speaker]Vyacheslav Volodin and [opposition party leader] Sergei Mironov, [Security Council Secretary] Sergei Shoigu at 2%.”
In November polling [20] by the independent Levada Centre of Moscow, there has been a slight downturn for Putin – 4 percentage points from 89% to 84%; a bigger downturn for the government, down 11pp from the mid-year high), and for Prime Minister Mishustin, down 7pp from the mid-year high.
The downturn is paralleled – correlated – with the downturn in Russian consumer confidence [21]: “In October 2025, the Consumer Sentiment Index (IPN) continued to decline and fell to 108 points (decreased by 9 points from June 2025). If in previous months the IPN decreased mainly due to the deterioration of estimates of the current financial situation, last month the decline in the index was due to a decrease in the level of economic expectations – to 115 points (a decrease of 10 points from April 2025). Estimates of the current situation have worsened for the past six months, but this month the decline halted, stopping at the level of 98 points.”
[22]Source: https://www.levada.ru/2025/11/25/indeks-potrebitelskih-nastroenij-i-traty-na-pitanie-v-oktyabre-2025-goda/ [21] In his address to an international investment forum on Tuesday, Putin attempted to mollify the growing opposition to his high-interest rate-falling growth policy. “The full-year forecast places GDP growth in the range of 0.5 to one percent. Overall, this is what we expected. From the outset, when the Bank of Russia raised the key rate and the Government adopted its corresponding decisions, we anticipated a soft landing. However, certain imbalances have emerged. In several industries, output this year not only failed to grow but actually declined. Are we satisfied with these trends? No.” http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/78631 [23]
In the Levada poll taken across the country between October 28 and November 11, the evidence shows the acknowledgement [24] of the American enemy has risen, especially in the 40 to 54 year age group. Younger Russians view the Ukraine as more of an enemy than the US. The oldest age group of 55 and older, rate the Americans most hostile, followed by the British and the Poles.
When Putin (age 73) and Ushakov (78) talk, they are addressing Russians of their own generation. “If Europe wants to wage a war against us,” Putin told [5] reporters before the Witkoff-Kushner meeting, “we are ready. There should be no doubt about that.”
“Russians consider the countries that are enemies of the country to be primarily the United States (39%), the European Union (29%), Ukraine (27%) and the UK (23%). One in five mentioned [24] Poland (19%);another 15% Germany; NATO and France, 9%; and the Baltic states, 2%.
THE CHIEF ENEMIES OF RUSSIA
[25]Source: https://www.levada.ru/2025/11/27/massovye-predstavleniya-o-vragah-rossii-v-oktyabre-2025-goda/ [24] For a Russia-hostile summary of the money networks which link Witkoff and Kushner’s real estate investments with Len Blavatnik and Kirill Dmitriev, read this [26].
The new poll also reveals that Russians now believe the US is less of a direct enemy than they thought during Trump’s first term in 2018. This is largely because Trump has been claiming since his second term began in January that he wants to make peace with Putin. Russian scepticism of this follows what the Kremlin says. When Ushakov reported on Tuesday evening that there is a “negative attitude towards a number of the [US] proposals,” he was confirming voter suspicion. When he added that “the parties have declared their readiness to continue working together to achieve a long-term peaceful settlement in Ukraine,” he was trying to convince [10] Russian voters that if the negotiations fail and the war continues, the fault will not be Putin’s but Trump’s.
[27]Source: https://www.levada.ru/2025/11/27/massovye-predstavleniya-o-vragah-rossii-v-oktyabre-2025-goda/ [24]
For background to the podcast discussion of the removal of Andrei Yermak in Kiev, read this. https://eventsinukraine.substack.com/p/yermak-down [28]
In the final segment on Venezuela, the attempt by Trump on Saturday to escalate his regime-change attempt with a no-fly recommendation – without US Air Force implementation – was judged to be a bluff.
[29]Here [30] is Trump’s retreat the next day in answer to questions from reporters:
“Question: Mr. president on Venezuela. Can you tell us more about why the airspace above Venezuela should be considered closed?
Donald Trump: Yeah, because we consider Venezuela to be not a very friendly country. They sent millions of people really, and probably, uh, a number in excess of that. And, uh, a lot of those people shouldn’t be in our country. From jails, from gangs, from drug dealers, from all of the people that came into our country, shouldn’t have been in our country causing a lot of problems.
Question: Does your warning mean —
Donald Trump: And drugs.
Question: Does your warning mean that an airstrike is eminent or should we not read it that way?
Donald Trump: Don’t read anything into it.
Question: The New York Times reported that you had a phone call with Maduro. Did you?
Donald Trump: Uh, I don’t wanna comment on it. The answer is yes.
Question: And can you tell us a little bit about it?
Donald Trump: No, I can’t do that.
Question: Mr. President, you –Would you say, would you say it went well?
Donald Trump: I wouldn’t say say it went well. Badly. It was a phone call. Yeah.”