[1]
By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with [2]
It was recently discovered that President Donald Trump’s group of warmakers against Iran are so corrupt that they are placing lucrative wagers on US military attacks, the targets and timing of which they know in advance because they are deciding them and have seen the top-secret orders.
Russians tracking the evidence of this corruption on Polymarket, a New York-based crypto bookmaker, can operationalize the data they collect on the insider betting in order to defend against the attacks, or bet their own money, or both.
The Americans are making more money, however, than the Russians. President Vladimir Putin’s runner and betting broker, Kirill Dmitriev, has so far failed to win a single wager on the corruption of his Washington counterparts, Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner. Also, Dmitriev’s (and the President’s) betting pattern is so predictable that its failure is worth betting on; the timing and the targets Dmitriev frames for bettors in his daily tweet stream.
In war, predictability of this kind is weakness. In betting, predictability is an asset for the bettors but only if the bookmakers and oddsmakers don’t have access to the secrets.
Polymarket [3]is an investment speculation and betting operation of a Jewish entrepreneur in Manhattan named Shayne Coplan; he claims to have a current capital valuation of $9 billion. Donald Trump Jr. is an investor [4] in Polymarket and advisor to Coplan.
Polymarket’s trading turnover has jumped from $9 billion for the year of 2024 [5] to almost $26 billion in the month of March 2026. It hit a record daily volume of $425 million on February 28, the day the US and Israel launched the new war against Iran. Since then an estimated $2 billion has been bet through Polymarket and other bookmakers on this war [6].
This is how Americans in the Trump regime can be defeated in war but make money at the same time.
The bigger profit for Trump, however, is in betting on the valuation of Polymarket if and when its shares are listed on a US exchange and a new market capitalization formed. In two years, that capital value target has gone from $350 million to $15 billion [7]. For Trump and these bettors the time is running out – two years to the presidential succession election in which Donald Trump Jr is a candidate, but only six months to the Congressional election which threatens an impeachment majority aimed at the criminality of the Trump regime.
And what is the biggest no-loss wager Trump, Coplan, and their co-investors can run before then? That’s the day and time when Israel launches nuclear weapons against Iran.
In the new podcast with Jamarl Thomas, we spell out the evidence of the unreadiness of Putin and his advisors – Yury Ushakov, Kirill Dmitriev, Elvira Nabiullina, and the Russian oligarchs – to defend Iran and deter the Americans from their war plans. Part of this unreadiness is psycho-strategic – it’s called Putin’s Kursk Syndrome
View or listen to the podcast and the word-by-word analysis of what Putin told Trump in their telephone conversation on April 29. This is the Kursk Syndrome in action. It’s so predictable you can bet on it. Podcast live: [8] starts at -1:25:00 and runs to
-20:28:00. An edited video version will follow shortly at this link [9].
For an overview of Polymarket’s bookmaking on Trump’s military operations, and for a special case study of insider betting on the June 21, 2025, US bombing of Iran’s nuclear installations, click to read this report [10].
[11]“Political markets where outcomes are determined by small, centralized decision-making groups are vulnerable to insider information. Across Polymarket, these group-based markets exhibit multiple indicators consistent with asymmetric information and potential insider trading: disproportionately high success rates for low-probability bets, clustering of winning activity among a small number of wallets, and a consistent pattern of trades placed immediately before outcomes occur. The findings suggest these political markets are structurally vulnerable to insider trading and were starkest for military and defense markets. Given the transparency of the blockchain that allows high frequency traders to identify possible insider activity and take advantage of it, these vulnerabilities not only allow insiders to profit but those able to identify them quickly, further widening the information gap that disadvantages regular bettors” -- report of April 2026 [10].
[12]Photograph taken on July 20, 2024 [13], at the Republican National Convention: Shayne Coplan is at rear, left, next to Donald Trump Jr, thumbs up right. The others include the well-known crypto investors (clockwise) Ken Howery, Shervin Pishevar, Omeed Malik and David Sacks.
The Kremlin released its read-out of the Trump-Putin telephone conversation in the early evening of April 29. Yury Ushakov, the President’s foreign affairs advisor and spokesman, is the author. Click to read the text [14] as it was analysed for the Kursk Syndrome symptoms.
[15]Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79660 [14]
At approximately the same time in the Oval Office in Washington, Trump gave his own read-out [16] of the telephone call in which he claimed to be trading war terms with Putin between Iran and the Ukraine. Trump intimated that if Putin helped Trump press Iran into surrender, he would help Putin by pressing the Kiev regime and its British and European backers into a similar position.
“We talked,” Trump said, “more about the war in Ukraine, but he would like to be of help. And I said before, you help me, I want to end your [sic] war. So, we had a good talk. I’ve known him a long time. I think he was ready to make a deal a while ago. I think some people made it difficult for him to make a deal, but we talked more about Ukraine.”
According to Trump’s version of the call with Putin, “he told me he’d like to be involved with the enrichment if he can help us [sic] get it. I said, I’d much rather have you be involved with ending the war with Ukraine. To me, that would be more important. Because we’re going to have that — look, we’re not going to let Iran have a nuclear weapon. And we’ve knocked out their Navy, we’ve knocked out their Air Force, we’ve knocked out their anti-aircraft everything apparatus, everything they have. Their radar, they have very little left. And they have some missiles, a small percentage, they have a small percentage of missile making facilities. We knocked out about 80 percent of them. The rest could come very quickly if we don’t make a deal. They’re not going to have a nuclear weapon. They know it and just about everybody else does, and so we talked about that a little bit.”
“He [Putin] doesn’t want to see them have a nuclear weapon either. But I had a long talk with President Putin. I suggested a little bit of a ceasefire, and I think he might do that. He might announce something having to do with that. Did he announce it yet?”
“Uh, Iran, the same thing. I mean, militarily, we’ve wiped them out. They have no military left. Their — their — it’s all — the Navy’s at the bottom of the sea. The Air Force is never going to fly again…now they have to cry uncle. That’s all they have to do. Just say we give up — we give up [16]…”