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THE IMITATION OFFENSIVE

[1]

By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with [2]

It’s  unlikely Vladimir Zelensky has read Oscar Wilde’s well-known maxim: “Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery that mediocrity can pay to greatness.”

But for the idea that Ukrainian officials can draw more profit, and lose fewer of their countrymen on the battlefield, by making a flurry of tactical manoeuvres in several directions imitate a strategic offensive, and a successful one at that —  this is a scheme which is  neither great nor mediocre. It is also not flattery.  

It’s an attempt by the US officials giving Zelensky his running orders – Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Under Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, National Security Advisor Jacob Sullivan,  and Joseph Biden,  declared candidate for re-election as president – to create the appearance of what they told [3] the New York Times is “their best hope…to make substantial gains… which could give [Ukraine] more leverage in any negotiations.”  

On May 12, in the first day of their scheme, 1,725 Ukrainian men were killed on the Donbass front. This is the worst day’s military casualty rate since the US coup in Kiev launched the war in February 2014.

According to the Financial Times, this killing didn’t happen. Instead, the headline reads [4]: “Ukrainian counter-offensive takes shape with the first gains around Bakhmut.”  The Washington Post announced [5] likewise: “How Ukrainian forces denied Russia victory in Bakhmut by Victory Day”.  The New York Times repeated [6]:  “Ukraine’s Advances Near Bakhmut Expose Rifts in Russian Forces”.  According to this propaganda, these successes were bloodless on the Ukrainian side.

A NATO forces veteran observes: “An entire regiment has been destroyed. This is cynical trading in flesh.

In fact, what happened on the battlefield was dozens of Ukrainian troop movements in different directions along a front of more than ninety kilometres.

According to the NATO veteran, “this is more propaganda offensive than real offensive. They scraped together enough gear, ammunition and manpower to make a barely audible tactical bang. It’s a punch with nothing behind it. Those guys are already dead. This isn’t even wishful thinking. It’s cynical trading in flesh.”

More precisely, this is what happened according to the Russian Defense Ministry. Most readers in the countries on the Ukrainian side can’t know, because the Russian ministry website is jammed electronically on national government order and editorially banned in their media.*

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Click to source: https://function.mil.ru/ [8]

“Summary of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation on the progress of the special military operation (as of May 12, 2023)”
“The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation continue to conduct the special military operation.

In the Kupyansk direction, air strikes and artillery fire from the Western Group of Troops hit enemy units in the areas of the settlements of Dvurechnoye in the Kharkov region and Novoselovskoye in the Lugansk People’s Republic [LPR].  In addition, during the night in the area of the settlement of Kotlyarivka, Kharkov region, the action of a sabotage and reconnaissance group was suppressed.

The enemy’s losses in this direction during the day amounted to more than 60 Ukrainian servicemen, an armoured combat vehicle, two cars, two Grad MLRS combat vehicles, an M109 Paladin artillery system manufactured by the United States, as well as an Akatsiya [“Acacia”]  self-propelled artillery system.

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Left to right: Grad Multiple launch Rocket System (MLRS); Paladin M109; Acacia.

In the Krasno-Limansky direction, operational-tactical and army aviation and artillery fire of the Centre group of troops defeated the manpower and equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine [AFU] in the area of the settlement of Torskoye in the Donetsk People’s Republic. During the night, two sabotage and reconnaissance groups were liquidated in the areas of the settlements of Chervonaya Dibrova and Kremennaya of the Lugansk People’s Republic.

During the day, more than 75 Ukrainian servicemen, three armoured combat vehicles, three pickup trucks, an Acacia self-propelled artillery installation, as well as a D-20 howitzer were destroyed.

In the western part of Artemovsk [Bakhmut], assault detachments [Wagner group] continued to fight to seize city blocks. Airborne units support them and stop the AFU’s attempts to counterattack on the flanks. Over the past day, nine sorties have been carried out by aviation in the area of the city of Artemovsk. The group’s artillery performed 64 firing tasks.

The enemy units in the areas of the settlements of Chas Yar and Bogdanovka of the Donetsk People’s Republic were hit by operational-tactical and army aviation strikes, and artillery fire of the Southern Group of Troops.

In the Soledar tactical direction, the enemy yesterday carried out offensive actions along the entire line of contact between the sides, stretching more than 95 kilometres.

The units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched 26 attacks, in which more than 1,000 servicemen, up to 40 tanks, as well as other military and special equipment were involved. All attacks of the AFU units have been repelled. No breakthroughs of the defence of the Russian troops were conceded.  In the Maloilinovsky direction, in order to increase the stability of the defence, units of the Southern grouping of Russian troops occupied the front line,  taking into account the favorable conditions of the Berkhovsky reservoir.

The servicemen of the 4th and 200th Motorized Rifle Brigades, army aviation crews and other units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation courageously proved themselves, repelling enemy attacks. More than 540 Ukrainian servicemen, eight tanks, as well as more than 20 units of other armoured vehicles were destroyed.

In total, the total enemy losses in the Donetsk direction amounted to about 900 Ukrainian servicemen killed and wounded, more than 30 armoured vehicles, as well as seven cars, two D-30 howitzers and one L-118 howitzer manufactured in Great Britain.

By means of air defence, a Su-27 fighter of the Ukrainian Air Force was shot down near the settlement of Chas Yar of the Donetsk People’s Republic. In addition, a warehouse of artillery ammunition of the 110th Mechanized Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was destroyed near the settlement of Avdiivka. In the South Donetsk and Zaporozhye directions, air strikes and artillery fire of the Vostok [East] group of troops defeated enemy units in the areas of the settlements of Vodiane and Ugledar of the Donetsk People’s Republic.

The enemy’s losses amounted to 110 Ukrainian servicemen, one tank, two cars, as well as a Gvozdika [“Carnation”] self-propelled artillery installation.  Up to 40 Ukrainian servicemen, an armoured combat vehicle, three vehicles and an Acacia self-propelled artillery installation were destroyed in the Kherson direction as a result of fire damage during the last day.

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Left: D-20 howitzer; right, L-118 howitzer.

During the day, 72 artillery units of the Armed Forces of the Ukraine in firing positions, manpower and military equipment in 102 districts were hit by operational-tactical and army aviation, and artillery units of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

In the area of the city of Zaporozhye, a fuel storage for military equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was destroyed. An AN/TPQ-36 counter-battery radar station manufactured by the USA was destroyed near the Borovaya settlement of the Kharkov region. Also, in the area of the settlement of Nikopol, Dnipropetrovsk region, the Ukrainian radar complex for reconnaissance and counterfire control, known as Zoopark-1, was destroyed.

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Source: https://www.reddit.com/ [12]

Air defence means intercepted three multiple rocket launches from HIMARS and Uragan (“Hurricane”) during the day. In addition, 25 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles were destroyed in the areas of the settlements of Krivosheevka, Kremennaya of the Luhansk People’s Republic, Belogorovka, Avdiivka, Chas Yar of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Kamenskoye, Tokmak, Pology of the Zaporozhye region, and Zburyevka of the Kherson region.

In total, since the beginning of the special military operation, 422 aircraft, 230 helicopters, 4,099 unmanned aerial vehicles, 421 anti-aircraft missile systems, 9,108 tanks and other armoured combat vehicles, 1,100 multiple rocket launchers, 4,796 field artillery and mortars, as well as 10, 141 units of special military vehicles have been destroyed [8].”

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The Russian Defense Ministry spokesman, Lieutenant-General Igor Konashenkov, gives a daily situation briefing every afternoon. Some of them have been re-broadcast with English sub-titles, and these are more accessible outside Russia than the ministry website version [14].  A brief excerpt of Konashenkov’s May 12 briefing can be viewed here [15] with English added.

The White House and State Department have responded by issuing anonymous statements [3] to a team of New York Times reporters, including Julian Barnes in Washington.  “Mr Biden’s aides…say their best hope is for Ukraine to make substantial gains during the counteroffensive which would give it more leverage in any negotiations”.   The newspaper report goes on: “’I know that senior-level administration officials are regularly having conversations about what peace ultimately would look like with our Ukrainian counterparts,’ said Representative Adam Smith of Washington, the top Democrat on the Armed Services Committee, ‘while at the same time having conversations about how to arm them and win back as much territory as possible…The dynamic will shift even if Ukraine makes marginal gains,’ said Mr. Smith, the Democratic lawmaker. After several more months of war, he predicted, both sides will be exhausted.”

This [16] was Barnes’s record before today.   

Why have there been such heavy Ukrainian casualties? The mainstream US media do not explain because they aren’t recognizing, let alone reporting the Ukrainian losses.  Alternative media reporters like the US group Simplicius [17]acknowledge the heavy losses, combing Ukrainian sources to verify the official Russian figures but failing to explain the reason.    “The AFU’s own propaganda video,” claims Simplicius [18], “ shows them taking massive losses during the assault. For instance, the video making the rounds for days where the alleged ‘Russian soldier’ surrenders to an AFU drone shows the soldier walking through a field full of destroyed AFU armour/equipment including corpses next to one of the Turkish MRAPs that can obviously only belong to the AFU. Does that look like a successful assault to you? Those are all burned out AFU APC/IFV/IMVs in the no man’s land between the two sides’ trenches. And remember, this is from their  own published video. And yesterday there were other big losses in separate assaults. For instance, AFU attempted to assault Mayorsk and Ozaryanovka at the NW tip of Gorlovka. They were blown away with losses of half a dozen armoured vehicles or more, many captured POWs all seen in this video here.”  

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Source: https://odysee.com/ [18]

Boris Rozhin [20] (“Colonel Cassad”), the Russian military analyst and aggregator of battlefield news reporting, has explained that as soon as Ukrainian advances have been detected and targeted by Russian artillery and drones, the infantrymen are abandoned by their unit commanders, and become sitting-ducks. “On May 11, Ukrainian fighters attempted to break through the positions held by servicemen of the 132 brigade of the 1st Donetsk Army Corps (formerly the 3rd brigade of the NM DNR). But the advance of the enemy on armoured vehicles was detected in time by the operators of the UAV [unmanned aerial vehicle].  A group of identified targets were hit by fire with the help of artillery. The enemy’s attempt to evacuate the remnants of its infantry was stopped with the help of shock UAVs, after which the enemy’s armoured vehicles retreated, leaving their infantry to die under the artillery fire.”    

George Eliason, reporting from Lugansk, confirms in the broadcast that the Ukrainian missile, rocket and artillery attacks are targeting undefended civilian targets, and avoiding Russian military targets whose defences include counter-battery targeting and fire units like the Zoopark. In the case of the two British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles, Eliason confirms they struck unoccupied civilian factories in Lugansk. The blasts from the two strikes blew out windows and inflicted superficial injuries in neighbouring apartment buildings. The area was not defended by main Russian or Lugansk air and anti-missile defence units.

In a follow-on statement from the Defense Ministry in Moscow, issued after the broadcast went to air, the aircraft which fired the two British missiles have been identified. “On May 12, at about 18.30 Moscow time, combat aircraft of the air forces of Ukraine launched a missile attack on the polymer products enterprise Polypak and the Milam meat processing plant in the city of Lugansk. Storm Shadow aviation missiles supplied to the Kiev regime by the UK were used for the strike, contrary to London’s statements that these weapons would not be used against civilian targets. As a result of the strike, a fire started on the territory of the Lugansk food and chemical industry enterprises. There is destruction of nearby residential buildings. Civilians were injured, including six children. Fighter aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces shot down the Ukrainian aircraft which had launched the missile strike on Lugansk – a Ukrainian Air Force Su-24 and an MiG-29 which had been covering it.”  

According to this Indian report [21], the Polish military, assisted by Israeli contractors, have been refitting Ukrainian aircraft to carry, fire, and guide the Storm Shadows to their targets.  

[22]

Defense Mirror is an Indian publication, based at Bangalore, directed and owned by Mohammed Ahmedullah. According to the May 12 report, “some 14 MiG-29s fighter jets which are in the process of being delivered by Poland to Ukraine have been upgraded to carry NATO weapons including the UK-donated 'Storm Shadow' cruise missile. The 'Storm Shadow' with its 250 km range and radar evading ability, will enable Ukrainian pilots to blunt some of the air superiority which Russian Forces enjoy over their adversaries...  While with the Polish air force, the MiG-29s were upgraded to 'NATO standards,' which included new avionics, radar, navigation and communication besides a new onboard complex with a HUD display and a multi-function head indicator, according to Polish media reports from 2020…The upgrade program, reportedly carried out by Israeli Aerospace Industries enabled the Polish MiGs to use NATO weapons, including the AGM-88 HARM high-velocity anti-radar missiles, AIM-9 short-range infrared homing air-to-air missiles besides medium-range air-to-air AIM-120 missiles with a target engagement range of up to 70 km.  In addition, Polish upgraded MiG-29 fighters can use American JDAM and JDAM-ER-guided bombs. Earlier, 15 modernized MiG-29 fighters were deployed at the 23rd Minsk-Mazovetsky Air Base, Poland and practiced with some of these weapons during exercises.”  Source:  https://www.defensemirror.com/ [23]
For a Russian analysis of the refit and upgrade requirements for Ukrainian or Polish aircraft to fire the Storm Shadow missile, read this [24].  

Listen to the broadcast discussion, first segment [25]:   

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Source: https://tntradiolive.podbean.com/ [25]

In the second segment, the US government’s action to transfer funds from US banks held by the sanctioned Russian, Konstantin Malofeyev, is analyzed as the start of a new policy of piracy and privateering pursued against Russia by the US and its allies in Europe. The Financial Times [27] of London reports the transfer to Kiev by the State Department of $5.4 million.   Here is the text of the April 2022 indictment [28] of Malofeyev by the US Department of Justice which began the process of seizing Malofeyev’s money, and then transferring it to the Ukraine.  

The precedent the US is setting in the Malofeyev case is a “boomerang” which will return to strike the US banking system, the Kremlin has responded. “As for the United States,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said [29], “such decisions are hitting them with a boomerang… This is nothing more than a direct encroachment on the property right which is absolutely sacred for the United States. This undermines trust – the trust of investors, the trust of the owners of whatever assets are connected in some way or other with America.” The confiscation of Russian assets in the US, Peskov added, is “illegal and illegitimate, and in normal conditions it would be the subject of a lawsuit with absolutely concrete prospects to win it.  But, unfortunately, there is no such prospect in the United States now, because we do not have the opportunity to challenge our rights in court.”

The Malofeyev case precedent is being followed in Belgium where the government announced last week that it is transferring €92 million to Kiev; the money is what Belgian officials are calling a “tax” on interest income earned from Russian Central Bank assets frozen in Belgium under the sanctions issued [30] by the European Union; they total about €180 billion.    “’For the war to end, the counter-offensive planned by Ukraine must be a success,’ Prime Minister Alexander De Croo announced – without explaining what the “tax” will be if the offensive is lost.

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Left: Konstantin Malofeyev with a portrait of Tsar Nicholas II; right, Alexander de Croo, Vladimir Zelensky, and the Belgian king Philippe in February 2023. 

In parallel, the Swiss government is considering a much larger payment [32] to Kiev out of the 7.4 billion Swiss francs ($8.3 billion) in Russian Central Bank deposits in Swiss banks which have been frozen by US and EU sanctions since the start of the Special Military Operation.

The broadcast concludes by drawing the contrast between the British missile attack on undefended civilian targets in Lugansk last Friday and the British cavalry action against Russian artillery defences at the Battle of Balaclava on October 25, 1854. This was the famous Charge of the Light Brigade, an action acknowledged at the time and in Alfred Tennyson’s propaganda  poem as “someone’s blunder”.  Of the 670 British attackers, 305 were killed, wounded, or taken prisoner.  Here is what happened [33]; here is Tennyson’s poem [34].  

Celebrating casualties on the battlefield over military incompetence, the concluding verse reads vaingloriously:

When can their glory fade?
O the wild charge they made!
All the world wondered.
Honour the charge they made!
Honour the Light Brigade,
Noble six hundred!

[*] During World War II the British government did not jam radio broadcasts from Berlin in support of Germany by William Joyce, “Lord Haw-Haw”, or the US government block the broadcasts of Iva Toguri, “Tokyo Rose [35]”,  and Mildred Gillard [36],  “Axis Sally”. Instead they were prosecuted for treason after the war. Joyce was convicted in London and hanged; Toguri was convicted in Chicago, imprisoned, paroled, then fully pardoned.   Gillard was convicted, imprisoned, and after refusing to apply for parole, released after serving eleven years.