[1]
By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with [2]
The inevitability of escalation – that’s the binding strategic requirement for President Vladimir Putin’s decisions on Russia’s warfighting options.
It’s binding on the president because it is Article 12 of the Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation on Nuclear Deterrence, which Putin signed in December 2024 [3]. Here it is: “Nuclear deterrence is aimed to ensure that a potential adversary realizes the inevitability of retaliation in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies.”
Article 11 makes clear who the potential adversary is: “Aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies by any non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state is considered as their joint attack.”
Since the US putsch in Kiev of February 2014, and not less since the start of the Special Military Operation (SMO, Cyrillic SVO) of February 2022, this means that on the Ukraine battlefield Russia faces the joint war of the US and its allies. What is special about the SVO is that it has suspended and postponed the Article 12 requirement of the inevitability of retaliation, turning it away from strategic nuclear options to tactical tit-for-tat or “mirror” options, as Putin calls [4] them.
Also, what is special is the way in which the “main military risks” to Russia identified in Article 15( c) of the strategic doctrine have escalated without (repeat without) effective retaliation. Article 15( c) [3] reads: “buildup by a potential adversary on the territories contiguous to the Russian Federation and its allies and in adjacent waters of general purpose forces groupings, which include nuclear weapons delivery means, and (or) military infrastructure ensuring the employment of such means.”
Who doesn’t understand there is now nothing potential about the “potential adversary” in this provision? Who fails to conclude that the inevitability of retaliation to operate for strategic deterrence to keep Russia from the destruction intended by the adversary is anything but inevitable right now?
So what is to be done? What is the method for analyzing the options, avoiding the deception operations and red herrings to which Sergei Karaganov and John Mearsheimer have been enthusiastically attaching themselves?
Click to listen or view the new discussion with Nima Alkhorshid broadcast live on Tuesday: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=viZp0bg5CdE [5]
[6]Left, Vladimir Mayakovsky in 1910; right, Mayakovsky in 1930, a few weeks before his death. “A Cloud in Trousers”, the poem by Vladmir Mayakovsky, first published in 1915, can be read in English translation here [7].
The new Russian opinion poll revealing the growing gender and class split over the warfighting options can be read here [8].
Here is Sergei Karaganov’s case [9] for nuclear retaliation outside the Ukraine battlefield against the European allies – not the US.
[10]“The European elite can be stopped only by demonstrating our actual readiness to conduct (initially conventional) strikes against the control centers, critical infrastructure, and military bases of those European countries that play a key role in preparing and executing military operations against Russia. Priority targets should also include the places where the elites (including of nuclear powers) live and work. Let their capitals finally sober up. If conventional strikes have no effect, and Europe does not capitulate or at least retreat, we should be fully prepared (militarily and, most importantly, politically and psychologically) to launch limited (but sufficient for political effect) retaliatory strikes with strategic nuclear weapons. Our non-strategic and strategic nuclear forces should be developed accordingly. Naturally, nuclear strikes should be preceded by several volleys of conventional tactical missiles.” https://karaganov.ru/en/middlegame-and-a-strategy-for-the-day-after-tomorrow/ [9]
The case for alternative options strategy being argued by Oleg Tsarev [11] can be followed at his Telegram account.
Here is an example of what is called in the podcast Achilles Heel targeting:
[12]Source: https://t.me/olegtsarov/45480 [13]
[14]Source: https://t.me/olegtsarov/45454 [15]