[1]
By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with [2]
As President Donald Trump got off his helicopter on Tuesday afternoon, he was asked by a reporter about his threat to impose 100% secondary trade sanctions if President Vladimir Putin doesn’t capitulate on US terms for ending the Ukraine war within fifty days.
“Question: Are you concerned that uh, secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian oil will hurt American consumers, higher gas prices —
“Donald Trump: I don’t think so. I think that whole thing is gonna go away eventually. It should have gone away. And Putin does say, ‘Oh, I want peace. I want peace,’ but so far he hasn’t lived up to that. So I think it’s gonna go away. But we’re gonna find out soon. We’re gonna find out soon.
Question: Can you give us more details on the sanctions? Is it 100% sanctions?
Donald Trump: No, I don’t wanna do that. But they’re very biting, they’re very significant and they’re gonna be very bad for the countries involved. I mean, they’ll be very, very powerful and, uh, very bad for the countries involved. And I hope we don’t have to pull that string and maybe we won’t. We’ll see. Gotta end [3].”
The Kremlin has said next to nothing except to warn that Putin might not think Trump’s threats worth answering. “If and when President Putin deems it necessary,” declared [4] spokesman Dmitry Peskov, “he will certainly comment on that. Let’s wait for Putin to decide whether he will comment on that himself.”
In the meantime, the Kremlin-funded internet platform for political, economic and military strategy, Vzglyad [5], has published the assessment that Trump will not dare to implement his secondary sanctions threat because the impact on the US will be much too damaging.
[6]Source: https://vz.ru/economy/2025/7/16/1345540.html [5]
The text has been translated verbatim without editing; charts with captions and sources have been added for illustration of the market dynamics and of the anti-Russia sanctions claims.
[7]July 16, 2025
How will Trump’s threats against Russian oil buyers turn out?
By Olga Samofalova
Donald Trump is threatening to punish buyers of Russian energy resources if the situation in Ukraine is not resolved in fifty days. First of all, China, India and Turkey, as the main buyers of our oil and petroleum products, are under attack. Surprisingly, however, world oil prices easily accepted such an ultimatum from the United States. Experts explain why there is no panic.
BRENT OIL PRICE RESPONDS TO NEW TRUMP SANCTION THREAT, JUNE 17-JULY 17
[8]Source: Brent crude oil price marker, closing price each day, June 17-July 17, 2025. July 17 price for September delivery, $69.59. Source: https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price [9]
US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Russian energy buyers if Russia does not agree to a peace agreement on the conflict in Ukraine in fifty days. The American president did not share specifics.
However, it can be assumed that we are not talking about the inclusion of culpable companies on the SDN [US Treasury’s Specially Designated Nationals and Blocked Persons [10]] list, but about the introduction of 100% duties on goods from those countries which will have disobeyed the United States and continued to buy Russian energy resources. It is not yet clear whether this will apply only to Russian oil or also to Russian petroleum products. In the end, the United States may also hit gas from Russia.
“If the Trump administration plans to impose prohibitive duties on Russia’s main foreign trade partners, tariffs of 100% on imports from China, India and Turkey may be imposed as early as September 2025. These countries are the main buyers of Russian coal, oil and petroleum products. The main restrictions will relate specifically to mutual trade, and not to the inclusion of certain companies in the SDN list,” said Sergey Tereshkin, CEO of Open Oil Market.
“About 85-90% of our oil is bought, literally speaking, by just two countries. These are India and China. China is the largest buyer of Russian oil if we take into account both oil pipelines and deliveries by sea. If we count only maritime supplies, then, as a rule, India is the largest buyer of our oil, and China is in second place,” says Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation (FNEB) and the National Energy Security Fund (NWF).
[11]Source: https://energyandcleanair.org/june-2025-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/ [12]
According to Chinese Customs data, China buys about 2 million barrels of Russian oil per day, mainly ESPO, [Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean pipeline [13]] , Sokol and Sakhalin oil, plus Urals grade oil and Arctic oil.
India mainly buys our flagship brand of oil, Urals. According to Kpler vessel tracking data, the total volume of Russian oil imports into the country is about 1.8 million barrels per day. This year, Turkey became the third largest importer of Russian oil, which bought a record 400,000 barrels per day in June. This was the result of lower prices for Russian oil: it has been below $ 60 per barrel for the fourth month in a row. Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, plus Japan and South Korea also buy Russian oil through pipelines, Yushkov adds.
CURRENT PRICE QUOTES FOR RUSSIAN CRUDE OIL BLENDS
[14]Source: https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/ [15] Russian crude oil is primarily traded as the Urals blend, which is a mix of sour (high sulphur) crude from the Urals-Volga region and sweet (low sulphur) crude from Western Siberia. Other, less common types include the Sokol and Sakhalin blends, both produced in the fareast. Sakhalin crude, lifted at the Sakhalin-2 and Sakhalin-3 sources, may trade at a slight discount or premium compared to other Russian crudes, depending on market conditions and demand.
IMPACT OF SANCTIONS WAR ON DISCOUNT BETWEEN BRENT AND URALS
[16]Source: https://energyandcleanair.org/june-2025-monthly-analysis-of-russian-fossil-fuel-exports-and-sanctions/ [12]
As for petroleum products, Russia exports about 2.5 million barrels per day of petroleum products, including low-sulphur diesel fuel, gasoline, naphtha, fuel oil and others. Turkey has sharply increased its purchases from Russia since 2022, and their exports from Turkey to the EU have increased by exactly the same amount, Yushkov notes. Turkey has become an intermediary between Russia and the EU, and is making good money from it. In 2024, Ankara bought 16.1 million tonnes of Russian oil, which is 9.5 million tons more than in 2021, that is, before the start of its oil production. At the same time, the total export of petroleum products from Turkey has actually doubled, from 11 million tons in 2021 to 22.2 million tons in 2024. Shipments to the EU from Turkey also doubled, from 5.2 million tons in 2021 to 11.4 million tons in 2024.
Russian oil products are also purchased by India, Brazil, countries of the Middle East (the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia), and North Africa (Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and others), Yushkov notes.
Markets and oil reacted rather weakly to Trump’s threats: global oil prices fell slightly. And here’s why. The fact is that, one way or another, the consequences for the United States itself will be negative. This will mean an immediate withdrawal from the market of 5-7 million barrels per day, which no one can replace. Theoretically, OPEC+ could do this by increasing production, but it will not be a very fast process, and it is not certain that the cartel will do this, Yushkov believes, because in this case the deal will fall apart and it is unlikely that Russia will participate in such an agreement a second time.
THE TURKISH SANCTIONS-BUSTING OIL TRADE
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[19]The STAR refinery is Azeri owned and 98% dependent on Russian crude, with 73% of its crude imports supplied by the US sanctioned company LUKoil. 87% of its seaborne exports of oil products are directed to G7+ countries. Source: https://energyandcleanair.org/publication/sanctions-hypocrisy-g7-imports-eur-1-8-bn-of-turkish-oil-products-made-from-russian-crude/ [20] CREA, an anti-Russian source advocating tougher sanctions, reported last September that “the USA’s imports of oil products from Turkish refineries rose by more than three times year-on-year in H1 2024 and have generated €125 million in tax revenues for Russia. The USA’s H1 2024 imports of oil products from the STAR refinery have generated €38.3 million in revenues for the US sanctioned company Lukoil — the single largest crude supplier to the refinery.”
Yushkov identifies two possible scenarios.
The first scenario is when India and China do not abandon Russian oil. Then the United States imposes protective import duties on goods from these countries. “This means that a global trade war is starting: Chinese and Indian goods are no longer supplied to the United States, and China, in retaliation, will impose duties on American goods and limit the supply of rare earth metals to the United States. This will lead to huge inflation, and the US Federal Reserve will fight it by raising rates, for which Trump is actively criticizing it. High interest rates and expensive loans with inflation will drive the American economy into recession,” says Yushkov. In addition, China already understands that it can fight and even win trade wars with the United States.
The second scenario is that China and India and all the others start obeying the United States and refuse to buy Russian oil. “If Russia cannot sell oil anywhere, then a global energy crisis will break out, because a huge amount of oil and petroleum products will instantly leave the market. Prices will return to triple digits. It will be, in fact, the same thing that was predicted now when the Strait of Hormuz was closed. This is a global shortage and energy crisis, which will affect all Western countries, including the United States, because they are buyers of these energy resources.
Fuel consumption in the United States will rise to new historical records – this is exactly what Trump criticized the previous US President Joe Biden for. This threatens inflation again, a rise in the US Federal Reserve rate, and eventually a recession in the American economy”, says Yushkov.
[21]According [20] to CREA, “The USA should also ban imports of oil products from refineries owned, operated or running on crude oil sold by the sanctioned Russian company Lukoil. Any purchases of refined products from refineries part-owned by Lukoil or from refineries running on Russian crude purchased from Lukoil are sending funds to a sanctioned entity that is closely related to the Kremlin. Low reliance will not impact domestic prices: Banning imports from these refineries or Lukoil supplied entities will not have any effect on oil prices or create any domino effect. For example, the USA’s purchases from STAR refinery constitute a mere 1% of its total seaborne imports of refined oil products. Banning these imports — from a refinery with huge imports of Lukoil crude — would have no effect on domestic prices or supply.”
US RETAIL PRICE TRAJECTORY FOR AUTO GASOLINE, 12-MONTH BIDEN-TRUMP COMPARISON
[22]Source: https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price [23]
Therefore, no matter what scenario you take, the United States itself will suffer. “It’s hard to imagine that Trump would allow such a development of events,” the FNEB expert believes.
Of course, this is also a negative effect for Russia, because the budget earns about 25% of its income from oil and gas. However, it is also not worth waiting for the collapse of the entire Russian economy.
Curiously, if the United States prohibits Turkey from reselling Russian fuel to the European Union, they will also hit the uncooperative Brussels. Trump has to be tougher with the EU, impose new duties in order to get what he wants. “If there are no more Russian oil products passing through Turkey, Ankara will lose this business and additional earnings, and fuel shortages will begin in the European Union, prices will rise,” Yushkov believes.
[24]As for LNG, it is certainly beneficial for the United States to clear the European market of LNG from Russia. However, it is unlikely that Trump will do it now and in such a difficult way. “All the LNG that comes from Russia to the European Union is actually gas from one Yamal LNG plant. It is enough for the United States to impose sanctions against this particular project, and none of the Europeans will violate these restrictions. I think this scenario is very likely, but not now, but in a few years, when more LNG exports from the United States begin,” the source concludes.