[1]
By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with [2]
In the beginning there was the Word.
The Greeks recited it homerically for those who couldn’t read or write but enjoyed a bloody war story in which their side killed their enemies with an assist from the gods on Mount Olympus.
Later, the Jews wrote it down on stone tablets by dictation from their god on Mount Sinai; then downhill they elaborated on goat skins on what He and they agreed He had meant chabadistically.
The Americans have been publishing their Word in print papers until they invented tweets for those with short attention spans, then podcasts for those who want to do something else (not read) at the same time.
In the Chinese versions of these new media, an antidote has been necessary for the problem which the Chinese leadership has. The problem is that China state representatives haven’t the words to explain, persuade or convince either their own people, or their allies, or their adversaries. The Chinese Foreign Ministry, for example employs a robot by the name of Guo Jiakun to do this job. He looks human, neurologically speaking; what he says is robotic, and slower in output than a common AI system [3].
To camouflage this glaring difference which western audiences detect, and limit the consequential damage to the credibility of their officials, the Chinese have devised a novel propaganda system to explain their rationale. The reason the Chinese leadership has nothing clear to say in public, they say, is not that they don’t know what’s on their minds, but rather that they don’t care that others don’t understand.
Don’t care – this is the new Chinese propaganda (Chiprop) system.
Chinese officials don’t care, as Chiprop explains the thinking in Forbidden City, because the Chinese are winning all the wars everybody else (US, Israel, Iran, Russia, Ukraine etc.) is fighting. They achieve this, Chiprop also claims, because they have already predicted correctly everything that has happened; and because in the future, even now, Chinese military systems have proved they are superior to anything anyone else is preparing to field on the battlefield or has already tested in action.
What the Chiproppers also mean is that in the Ukraine war and the Iran war, the lesson is that the victories of the Russians and Ukrainians over the Americans, NATO allies, and Israelis are temporary and illusory. They are no more than the illustration of the superiority of Chinese strategy, operations, tactics, and indeed the Chinese mind, for the future in which all of the current adversaries – Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin, Keir Starmer, Friedrich Merz, Mojtaba Khamenei, Benjamin Netanyahu – will have been buried, superseded, forgotten.
“This is not the Iran War. It is WWIII”, declared a Chipropper who appeared freshly four months ago, anonymously named China Arbitrageur (“ChinArb”). “It is already over…WWIII is the war 21st-century globalized industrial civilization can fight. Its weapons are not tanks and carriers. They are supply-chain interdiction, chokepoint sovereignty, financial weaponization, and resource arbitrage. It does not need a declaration, because in a globalized economy you are already in a state of mobilization. It does not need a casus belli, because the existence of the dependency relationship itself is the casus belli. It does not need to end in a treaty, because what it transfers is not territory — it’s control over flows [4].”
This is the World War which China has already won, according to ChinArb of Chiprop.
“System C won the entire war tactically. System A lost strategically. System B won strategically. These are three different subjects. This is the first time System C has let the world see itself. But please also remember — this is only the first time [5].”
ChinArb explains that System A is the US, Israel, the NATO allies, Japan, South Korea – each and all of them defeated already. System B is China which has won. System C isn’t identified but appears to refer to Iran and behind Iran’s tactical victory, China, because it “controls the flows”.
In this advance celebration of VOW day – Victory Over the World – the Chinese don’t care to address any of the issues the current war combatants claim to be their war aims, their war settlement terms. “Beijing cares about oil. Beijing doesn’t care whose oil… If China has no loyalty even to the IRGC [Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps], then what is the actual relationship between Beijing and the IRGC? It is not a subordinate relationship. It is not a ‘constraint and constrained’ relationship…Beijing cares about oil. Beijing doesn’t care whose oil…The IRGC knows that China is not loyal to the IRGC. China is loyal to oil. The IRGC is just one of many sellers of oil on this planet — and because it can only sell to China (excluded by the global sanctions regime from all other buyers), China can buy from it at a deep discount [6].”
“What China has built is System B — a global industrial network woven together from manufacturing capacity, resource flows, logistics, settlement channels, and infrastructure investment. And an industrial system does not need proxies, because the expansion mechanism of an industrial system does not depend on military victory at all. It expands by converting industrial output into the dependency relationships of the physical world itself. Its influence is not produced by action — it is produced by existence. The fact that 1.4 billion Chinese people’s industrial appetite exists on this planet is itself enough to change the calculus of every resource exporter, every port, every mine, every refinery, every shipping company. It does not need to send anyone anywhere to persuade anyone of anything — its industrial metabolism is doing this on its own, every day, twenty-four hours, without rest [6].”
“This exchange of System A’s apparent victories for the kind of concession System B doesn’t care about — has a name. It is the actual operating mechanism of the Islamabad negotiation. But it is more than a mechanism. It is what you will see in every news headline over the next three to five years [7].”
“The nuclear non-proliferation issue — something System A has treated as a global issue for fifty years — is quietly being downgraded from ‘global issue’ to ‘System A issue.’ System B doesn’t care. And issues that System B doesn’t care about will increasingly be marginalized — not opposed, but forgotten… The nuclear non-proliferation issue is a System A issue. It is a System A internal order established by the NPT regime in 1968 — preserving Western monopoly over nuclear technology. System B is not in this logic. Nuclear weapons make no contribution to System B’s expansion mechanism. They will not let China sell one more ton of steel. They are completely irrelevant to industrial metabolism. So China’s actual position on the nuclear issue is: whatever, as long as it doesn’t interfere with doing business [7].”
This sounds like science – military, political, sociological, economic, logistics. In fact – that’s to say, in proof – it’s ideological. It’s as religious as the IRGC word is Islamic; the Jewish word is Chabad [8]; the American word is what President Trump tweets.
The Chiprop technologists who devised this new word and media “system” have studied American susceptibility to Christian and Jewish guile for half a century. Their study of the impact of Chinese guile on US audiences began with Kung Fu [9], the America television series of 1972 in which an actor of Christian evangelical descent and regular drug enhancement, played a half-American, half-Chinese monk who defeats adversaries with a combination of martial arts moves and his mind over their matter.
That was a popular fiction. So are ChinArb, Hua Bin, and Jiang Xueqin.
[10]Left to right, ChinArb, Hua Bin, and Jiang Xuejuin, as they have published photographs of themselves on the internet.
ChinArb is the newest of the three. With what he claims to have been “20+ years embedded in China’s policy and industrial frontlines”, he has been publishing on Substack for four months and to date reports two thousand subscribers.
Hua Bin, another pseudonym, has been publishing a Substack for eighteen months, claiming [11] just over three thousand subscribers. His articles draw a larger audience in The Unz Review which has published 155 of them.
The three, ChinArb, Hua and Jiang, never report or analyze Chinese politics. They are silent on the year-long purge of Chinese military leaders by President Xi Jinping. According [12] to Hua, Chinese politics are a model of propriety compared to the “cesspool of Middle Eastern politics”, “American perfidy [12]”, and the Indian [13]“farce that is fed to the Indians and devoured eagerly by a desperate west that either doesn’t know better or is equally delusional… The deficiency of the Indian mindset is on full display when it lost the brief air war with Pakistan in May but insisted to celebrate the defeat as unqualified success in front of the world.”
Chinese politics to these three are the religious equivalent of the Immaculate Conception in Christianity.
“This brings me,” Hua Bin has written [14], “to the topic of how wealth and power is treated differently in the self-acclaimed ‘leading democracy’ called USA and its much demonized adversary – the others-alleged ‘foremost autocracy’ China. Jack Ma and Zhang Youxia are the equivalent in wealth and power to the Epstein Class in the West. Jack Ma is the billionaire founder of Alibaba and Ant Financial (Alipay) and was once the richest man in China. Jack Ma was sidelined and put in deep media freeze after he disparaged regulators and called for unrestrained financialization, which is considered a dangerous neoliberal recipe for disaster. His imminent multi-billion-dollar IPO for Ant Financial, expected to be the largest ever IPO in history, was called off days before going public. Zhang Youxia was the Deputy Chairman of the Central Military Commission and the highest ranked uniform officer in the Chinese military. Zhang was removed unceremoniously from his position and put under investigation for corruption and trampling on the chain of command.”
Read what they have been saying and writing at these sources:
[15]Source: https://substack.com/@chinarbitrageur [16] Grok, AI tool of the Elon Musk X group, reports: “No widely confirmed real name appears in public sources. The perspective is that of a long-term China insider/observer with practical experience, not an academic or pure journalist.” https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=2051178069214515293 [17]
[18]Source: https://huabinoliver.substack.com/ [19] Grok reports that Hua “writes in English as a geopolitical observer, likely with a Chinese background or deep China connections, though he keeps a relatively private personal profile.” https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=2051178069214515293 [17]
[20]Source: https://predictivehistory.substack.com/ [21] Podcast channel: https://www.youtube.com/@PredictiveHistory/videos [22] According to Grok, “as of recent data, his content has tens of millions of views and strong followings on YouTube, Substack, X/Twitter (@xueqinjiang), and Instagram” -- https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=2051178069214515293 [17] For background: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jiang_Xueqin [23]
[24]Source: https://x.com/i/grok?conversation=2051178069214515293 [17]
To investigate who is behind the pseudonyms and early retirement claims, the Chinese AI tool DeepSeek was asked what it knows. The answer is that it knows next to nothing.
About ChinArb [25], “the available information is somewhat limited as the author appears to maintain anonymity…The author claims 20+ years of experience embedded in China’s policy and industrial frontlines. This suggests a background involving direct, on-the-ground exposure to China’s economic policymaking and industrial sectors, though specific biographical details (such as their real name or prior affiliations) are not provided in these search results.”
“Based on the search results, Hua Bin is a frequent, pseudonymous contributor to The Unz Review, where he writes about geopolitics, economics, and international relations from a pro-China perspective. Hua Bin also publishes his work on his own Substack page (huabinoliver.substack.com) . His articles are often republished or cited by other independent media outlets, including Spanish-language and Czech platforms.”
Asked for more information, DeepSeek replied [25]: “Sorry, that’s beyond my current scope. Let’s talk about something else.”
About Jiang Xueqin, DeepSeek reports [25]: “He worked as a freelance journalist but was arrested and deported from China in 2002 while filming a PBS documentary about labor movements . He was allowed to return in 2003. Shifting away from journalism, he became a prominent figure in Chinese education reform, holding senior roles at prestigious schools like Shenzhen Middle School and Tsinghua University High School .Current Work: He is also a researcher with Harvard’s Global Education Innovation Initiative… Lack of Transparency: Media Bias/Fact Check rates his content as ‘Questionable,’ citing a lack of transparent sourcing, a heavy reliance on speculative conclusions, and a mix of real-world references with unverified claims. The ‘Professor’ Title: Jiang has been criticized for using the title ‘Professor,’ given that he is a high school teacher. He has defended this by stating his audience gave him the nickname.”
Much more on Jiang’s fabrication of predictions and personal credentials can be found here [26]. His claim [23] to be a Fellow of the Royal Society of Artists (RSA) in London omits to acknowledge that he purchased this by subscription. “You don’t need an invitation. So it doesn’t mean anything, except that he wants some letters after his name,” according to a well-known London investigative journalist.
The AI systems have so failed to find a record of ChinArb, Hua or Jiang debating their evidence or their conclusions with their critics. Their method doesn’t allow verification at source or testing alternative hypotheses. By dissimulation or concealment of their identities and background, the expertise they claim is unverifiable. In their military analysis of weapons systems which the Chinese government has advertised by putting them on parade and but has no experience of using in combat, the only evidence on which all three depend is the Cinese propaganda line on the Pakistan-India war of April-May 2025. For comparison of evidence and method, click to read [27].
All three share one other fixation – they do not discuss the Russian war in Ukraine; they never mention the Russian-Chinese relationship; they know nothing about the policy differences which have been surfacing in public statements by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov since last December. The only Russian credit Hua has conceded [28] is a historical one: “Iran has proven low-cost and mass-produced weapons can effectively overwhelm the most expensive air defenses. Joseph Stalin said, ‘Quantity has a quality of its own’. This stands true 80 years later.”
From time to time claims appear for which there is no source; no prior official or press report; no evidence at all.
In ChinArb’s reporting [4] of the April 10-11 Islamabad negotiations on the Iran war, he claims: “In this room there is no Israel. No Saudi Arabia. No UAE. No EU. No United Nations. No IAEA.But there are two absent figures who determined every detail of this meeting. The first is Asim Munir, Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff. For the past six weeks he has been the only reliably functioning back-channel between Islamabad and Tehran, and between Islamabad and Beijing. The location, agenda, and seating of this meeting all passed through his hands. He is not in the conference room. But there is nothing happening in that conference room that he didn’t know about in advance. The second is the Chinese ambassador to Pakistan [Jiang Zaidong]. He just needs to be available when Asim Munir needs to make a phone call. His presence is not in the form of a negotiating party. It is in the form of ‘the reason this meeting is happening in Islamabad rather than Geneva.’ A few days ago, Bahrain submitted a UN Security Council resolution to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Eleven votes in favor. China and Russia, one veto. From that moment forward, any international arrangement concerning Hormuz that does not have Chinese consent cannot make it out of the Security Council. Vance is in Islamabad because he has nowhere else to go.”
[29]Left: Jiang meets Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif last week; no photograph of a meeting between Jiang and Munir has been found. Right: The Russian Representative, Vassily Nebenzya, vetoes the Bahrain-sponsored Security Council resolution on using force to open the Strait of Hormuz.
“Put these five facts together: [Iran’s negotiations leader Mohammed Bakr] Ghalibaf represents the IRGC, not the Iranian foreign ministry. Vance is in a country where America has no ambassador. Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the EU are absent from the room. Asim Munir is the invisible coordinator. The Chinese ambassador is the invisible veto.”
Just one veto, and it’s invisible – that’s what ChinArb, Hua, and Jiang claim China holds over the world now.