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By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with [2]
Realism in politics is M +V+ B = P.
That’s to say: Money plus Votes plus Bullets equal Power. The equation is simple arithmetic – everyone can count.
But almost everyone can count on missing one or more of the variables — usually all three of them — so power is very unequally distributed in most countries, most times, most lives. It is suffered much more than it is enjoyed: –M + –V + –B = –P. Minus P is powerlessness. That’s the state of being a victim, vassal, slave.
This P power is not the kind you draw from a rally (podcast) when a Billy Graham-type tells you he will fill you full of the P of conviction on condition you believe in him and pay him a cash subscription. You can trust him to give you your money’s worth because, he says, he is a veteran of the CIA or US Army (officer not rank), or a Chicago professor, or a Pulitzer Prize winner from New York, or a high-rating ex-employee of Fox News. In the US, these Billy Graham-types make fortunes selling Minus P as PH – Payoff in Heaven.
In politics, might not only makes right; it also makes righteousness. What can happen, therefore, as two adversaries at war with each other test when PH ≥ P— that’s when their righteousness in Heaven is greater than their power on Earth. This is the war between Supreme Leader Donald Trump and Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, between the US and Iran.
According to Trump in a tweet of June 15, 2025 [3], “we know exactly where the so-called ‘Supreme Leader’ is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.” Twelve days later, on June 27, 2025 [4], Trump claimed: “I knew EXACTLY where he [Khamenei] was sheltered, and would not let Israel, or the U.S. Armed Forces, by far the Greatest and Most Powerful in the World, terminate his life. I SAVED HIM FROM A VERY UGLY AND IGNOMINIOUS DEATH, and he does not have to say, ‘THANK YOU, PRESIDENT TRUMP!’”
Khamenei tweeted in reply [5]: “The US President threatens us. With his absurd rhetoric, he demands that the Iranian people surrender to him. They should make threats against those who are afraid of being threatened. The Iranian nation isn’t frightened by such threats.” “Trump should know”, Khamenei said [6] this month, after the failure of the internal riots, “that world tyrants such as Pharaoh, Nimrod, Reza Shah and Mohammad Reza were brought down at the peak of their arrogance. He too will be brought down”. “The US had made extensive preparations to orchestrate this sedition. This sedition was a prelude to even bigger schemes. The Iranian nation defeated the US. [6]”
There is an arithmetic of force and firepower ratios on each side – the number of US missiles that can be fired before the ships must sail away for reloads; the number of Iranian drones and missiles required to overwhelm US defences or deter approaching aircraft; the survivability of the launching platforms; the number of casualties in a 2-day war, a 7-day war, a protracted war. This is the arithmetic of the B, bullets.
Then there is the arithmetic of the V, votes at the US midterm elections, and the M, money inflation at gas stations across the US. Trump is counting on his B+ adding to his V and keeping his M from rising sharply. Khamenei is counting on neutralizing Trump’s B to zero and his V and M to minus by closing the Strait of Hormuz and surviving US strikes for long enough to project and protract the war into the US itself.
Election Day in the US falls on November 3; the summer driving season starts on Memorial Day, May 25. Khamenei’s calculation is to protract the P equation for less than sixteen weeks – or convince the money, vote and bullet counters in Washington in advance that this is what he can do. Not even the Billy Graham-type PH zealots in the White House are confident he can be destroyed before then.
With Lieutenant General (retd) P R Shankar, view or listen to the new Gunners Shot podcast [7] for the political realism needed for now.
[8]Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rgU9YtBXKHs [7]
The podcast was recorded on Saturday morning, India time, and released in the evening.
The first part focuses on the US war against Iran, and the role Russia is playing. The second part focuses on the new Free Trade Agreement (FTA) which India signed with the European Union in Delhi on January 27.
Here is the Indian Government’s factshee [9]t itemizing the terms:
[10]And the European Union’s version: https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/india/eu-india-agreements/factsheet-eu-india-free-trade-agreement-main-benefits_en [11]
[12]In the EU’s published estimates [13], the biggest European export gainers in the Indian market will be wine, whisky, beer, olive oil, and sausages.
“I’ve looked at some of the details of the deal so far”, responded [14] Jamieson Greer, the US Special Trade Representative (USTR): “I think India comes out on top on this, frankly. They get more market access into Europe.” Greer is a US Cabinet member and reports directly to Trump. By contrast, Scott Bessent, the US Treasury Secretary, was critical [15]: “They [EU] should do what’s best for themselves, but I will tell you, I found, I find the Europeans very disappointing…The Europeans were unwilling to join us, and it turns out, because they wanted to do this trade deal. So every time you hear a European talk about the importance of the Ukrainian people, remember that they put trade ahead of the Ukrainian people.”
[16]Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSOR6A3pWGw [17]
[18]Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LQqlI40GfKY [19]