[1]
By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with [2]
When journalism reports decision-making and action-taking in Teheran, Beijing, Moscow, and Washington — one after another in time sequence — the differences, the corrections, the contradictions, and the ambiguities of meaning between them are bound to be confusing to observers reading the record of outcomes without inside knowledge.
Confusion, however, isn’t what is happening in each of those capitals. It’s politics, faction-fighting in the middle of war in which deception and propaganda are also weapons of war.
Investigative journalism ought to be making this clear – in each of the warfighting capitals, as well as between them on the battlefields.
Podcasting, however, is viewed by many to be a spectator sport in which the only worthwhile conclusion after time, overtime and penalty shoot-out, is the score on the board for balls kicked into the net – without the line umpire blowing his offside whistle. There’s no cheering for defence played so well that the score is a nil-nil draw.
One of the differences between match scores and the politics of the wars the Trump Administration is fighting against Iran, Russia, and China is the harmlessness of the first and the lethal destruction of the second. One of the features they have in common is that you can wager money on the outcomes. Big money, if you have inside influence on the decision-making and knowledge of what will be decided – as Trump himself, his friends, and his officials have. Unless you have placed a Draw-No-Bet wager and get your money back, a nil-nil result usually means you’ve lost. Trump only bets on winning, never on a draw.
In the new podcast with Dimitri Lascaris, aired at 12 noon Moscow and Athens time, we look carefully at the evidence on the battlefield at the Strait of Hormuz and look at Trump’s form for bluff and deception. The latest statements of China’s Foreign Ministry – live at 3 pm Beijing time – are analyzed for what is said, and not said. The same method is then applied to the performance in Moscow. The conclusions aren’t recommended for team fans, bettors or bookmakers. But click [3] if you are an intelligence agent.
[4]“You learn a great deal more about politics from losing than from winning” -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uW5bHpZRvEA [3]
THE US ATTACK ON THE M/V TOUSKA IN THE GULF OF OMAN, APRIL 19
Here is the report with an excerpt of the video record published [5] by the US Central Command of the interception of the Touska at a location identified as “the north Arabian Sea [sailing] at 17 knots enroute to Bandar Abbas, Iran.”
The official incident report acknowledges that between initial warning, shots by the USS Spruance, and boarding by US Marines from the USS Tripoli, six hours elapsed. At continuous speed of 17 knots, that means the Touska covered a distance of at least 100 nm or about 200 kms during the engagement. This suggests the first hostile contact between the Spruance and the Touska was further to the east of the Gulf of Oman, in the Arabian Sea (Indian Ocean), and that the Touska was making a run for Chabahar.
Maritime media, including Kpler, TankerTrackers, and other sources have reported [6] the Touska’s location at the boarding as about 550 kms east of the Hormuz Strait in the Gulf of Oman. This point was 75 kms southeast of the Iranian port of Chabahar. The US is claiming the destination of the vessel was Bandar Abbas inside the Strait; there is no evidence to substantiate this. The air distance from Chabahar to Bandar Abbas is 445 kms (240 nm); the sea distance is roughly 100 kms longer.
Flight distance from the Iranian coast to the Touska and the principal US interceptor, the destroyer USS Spruance [7], was well within Iranian drone and missile range. However, no Iranian firing has been reported in the area until hours after the event. The Iranian Students’ News Agency (ISNA) has been reported in the western media as relaying the claim from the Khatam Al-Anbiya military central command that the Iranian armed forces would “soon respond [8].” There is no explanation for the apparent lack of radar and satellite detection or drone surveillance for the six hours after the Touska first communicated with the shore.
[9]Lloyds List reported [10] from London that the “Touska, which has been subject to US sanctions since 2020 related to Iran’s weapons programme, had departed the Chinese port of Zhuai on March 29 and arrived at Malaysia’s Port Klang on April 3. Previous investigations published by the Washington Post have noted that sanctioned IRISL [Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines] vessels including Touska have previously loaded from Zhuhai, which is among other things a loading port for chemicals including sodium perchlorate, a key precursor for solid rocket fuel that Iran uses as part of its missile programme. Touska’s registered owner is Iranian company Mosakhar Darya Shipping Company PJS, but ultimately controlled by IRISL, a state-owned company under US, UK and European Union sanctions that has been described by the US State Department as the ‘preferred shipping line for Iranian proliferators and procurement agents’.”
“At about the same time, a tanker in ballast was allowed to proceed to Iran without kinetic interference, according to TankerTrackers.com – the latest in a series of empty Iranian VLCCs navigating past the U.S. naval cordon, despite CENTCOM’s claims that Iranian commerce is completely blocked in and out. Laden, outbound VLCCs have been consistently halted and turned around; at least some inbound VLCCs have effectively been permitted to pass [11].”
According to TankerTrackers [12], the Touska was loaded. “Iranian-flagged container ship TOUSKA (9328900) departed Port Klang, Malaysia laden with cargo according to her AIS-reported draft depth. Data from Kpler confirms the loading of the Touska at Zhuhai. US media claim that this port specializes in chemical storage and “is known for loading sodium perchlorate, which is used in making solid rocket fuel [13].” In April 2025 [14] the Bandar Abbas storage of rocket fuel components exploded, either by accident of poor handling or from sabotage..
What is now certain is that the US deliberately targeted a Chinese-owned cargo on board the Touska, and that over the six-hour period of interception no Iranian or Chinese action has been reported.
CHINESE FOREIGN MINISTRY REACTION TO US ATTACK ON THE TOUSKA
[15]Source:. https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/xw/fyrbt/lxjzh/202604/t20260420_11895636.html [16] Note that the Chinese publication time was 19:32; that was five hours ahead of Moscow. The podcast began at 12:10 Moscow time and the discussion of Guo’s presentation relied on notes taken from the live broadcast. The transcript published later has been “updated”; this means edited.
Reuters: The U.S. has seized an Iranian cargo ship that was traveling from China. Today, Iran is about to retaliate to what it says, to quote them, “armed piracy” by the U.S. Iran has also said it would not participate in the second round of negotiations as the ceasefire between Tehran and Washington expires tomorrow. The question is, does China have any remarks on the seized ship? What was it carrying? Also, does China have any comment about the ceasefire that seems to be breaking down?
Guo Jiakun: On your first question, the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is fragile and complex. We are concerned over the U.S.’s forcible interception of the vessel and hope that relevant parties will honor the ceasefire agreement in a responsible manner, avoid aggravating disputes and escalating tensions, and provide necessary conditions for the restoration of normal passage through the Strait. On your second question, the current regional situation is at a critical stage of whether the conflict could end or not. Now that the window for peace has been opened, favorable conditions need to be created to end the conflict at an early date. China supports relevant sides to maintain the momentum of ceasefire and negotiation, act on the spirit of President Xi Jinping’s four-point proposition, continue to promote deescalation and play a constructive role for bringing lasting peace and stability to the Middle East.
China-Arab TV: Recently, the Iranian forces fired on Indian-flagged vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about maritime security. How does China view this escalation? What measures is China considering to safeguard its shipping and energy interest in the Strait?
Guo Jiakun: I just stated China’s position on the Strait of Hormuz. Let me stress that the Strait of Hormuz is a strait for international passage. Ensuring unimpeded passage through the Strait serves the common interest of regional countries and the international community. China hopes that all sides will jointly prevent the situation from worsening. China stands ready to work with the international community to continue making its due contributions for deescalation.
PTI: You’ve already expressed your concern about U.S. forces’ shooting at a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. But again, there was a question about the Iranian guards fired at the Indian ships, transiting the same route. There is also a wider issue that the top Iranian commander told reporters that Iran would like to retain its what you call the hold over the Strait of Hormuz and they will not give up. So they will keep the control. How China looks at it because it being an international waterway. So it causes not simply for China, the issues, but for the rest of the world. How do you comment especially also on the Iranian fighting on the Indian ships?
Guo Jiakun: I just answered a related question. The Strait of Hormuz is a strait for international passage. Keeping the area safe and stable and ensuring unimpeded passage serves the common interest of regional countries and the international community. We hope relevant parties will act responsibly and adhere to the ceasefire agreement, avoid exacerbating confrontation or worsening tensions, and create the necessary conditions for the resumption of normal traffic at the Strait… Japan needs to seriously reflect on its history of aggression, and exercise prudence both in words and actions in military and security areas, rather than flexing muscles in the South China Sea and undermining stability in the region [16].”
THE STRATEGIC PRIORITY OF THE US FOR CHINA – FINANCING US DEBT IN TREASURY HOLDINGS BY COUNTRY
[17]Click on source to enlarge view: https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html [18] The Chinese stake was 9% of the T-bill total in February 2025; it was 7.3% of the larger total in February 2026. Currently, China trails behind Japan and the UK in the size of its Treasury holdings. Over the year reported in the table, China reduced its aggregate by 12%. However, India reduced its stake by 16% and Brazil by 18%.
For analysis of the conradictory, then ambiguous record on their policy towards the Hormuz conflict by President Xi Jinping, Foreign Minister Wang Yi, and Defense Minister Dong Jun made on successive days of last week, click to read [19].
[20]THE RUSSIAN SECURITY COUNCIL STATEMENT OF APRIL 14
[21]Click to read the full evidence and analysis. https://johnhelmer.net/why-did-the-russian-security-council-just-issue-a-statement-of-the-obvious/ [22] and https://johnhelmer.net/vladimir-putin-kirill-dmitriev-and-whispers-of-the-russian-succession/ [23] .
The deputy chairman of the Council is former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev. By press interviews, tweets, and Telegram posts Medvedev has been critical of the US campaign to take control of the Hormuz Strait.
[24]Source: https://x.com/MedvedevRussiaE/status/2043737740412346665?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet [25]
In contrast to the vaguesness of the Chinese Foreign Ministry statements, compare this April 15 press conference [26] by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov after his meetings in Beijing with Xi and Wang. “At the international level, we are interested in foiling the open attempts by the West, including the United States and Europe, to maintain or even renew their hegemony in the hope that the 500-year-long experience of controlling the world, subordinating it to their interests, and creating global control mechanisms that allowed them to live off others, in particular through slave trade, colonialism and other instruments, could be modernised and further used to continue living off others and bend them to their will. Neither China nor Russia, nor the majority of countries throughout the world, can accept this approach.”
[27]Source: https://mid.ru/ru/press_service/minister_speeches/2094750/?lang=en [26] Follow-up analysis: https://johnhelmer.net/jesus-christ-xi-jinping-is-hugging-donald-trump-on-the-sidelines-of-three-us-israeli-genocidal-wars/ [28]