By John Helmer, Moscow  @bears_with Iran has made one point very clear to the United States. It will negotiate on terms for a “permanent peace” but not for a ceasefire. It will fight on against US troops if they land, against US bases in the Arab states, and against US vessels at sea; it will keep […]

by Editor - Wednesday, March 11th, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow  @bears_with The caution which the ancient Greek philosopher Socrates showed in his method of argument by posing questions instead of answers didn’t protect him in the end from Athenian conviction and the death penalty. That old, scarred, but honourable soldier went to trial and lost. He was condemned for impiety – introducing […]

by Editor - Tuesday, March 10th, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow  @bears_with The loss of confidence between Russia and India has been growing rapidly since Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared his support for Israel three days before the Israeli-American attack on Iran began with the assassination of the Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.   To signal Russian hostility, Denis Anpilov, the Russian ambassador to India, went […]

by Editor - Sunday, March 8th, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow  @bears_with The problem is that rats can leave a sinking ship but they cannot return if their ship has already sunk. They must surrender instead or drown. This must have been what President Vladimir Putin meant when he instructed his spokesman Dmitry Peskov to announce on Thursday afternoon, March 5: “Moscow has […]

by Editor - Thursday, March 5th, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow  @bears_with A black valentine is a communication between intelligence services with a message that looks well-meant but is the reverse in fact.  Between friendly, cooperating or allied intelligence services, like the Russian and Iranian, the black valentine is a criticism. A sharp one. Yevgeny Krutikov, a former Russian military intelligence (GRU) officer […]

by Editor - Wednesday, March 4th, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow  @bears_with Russian oil and gas producers and the state, which taxes their revenues for the budget,  will gain from the war on three conditions: if the closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains a short supply shock; if war damage to Arab and Iranian oil and gas fields, pipelines, port terminals, and […]

by Editor - Tuesday, March 3rd, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow  @bears_with The Kremlin spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, has announced: “Even as we continue to highly appreciate those mediation efforts being provided by the United States we rely on ourselves only and it is us who defend our own interests.”  As for the US “mediation efforts” – read Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner — […]

by Editor - Tuesday, March 3rd, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow  @bears_with In investigating war and peace, life and death, truth and lies, innocence and guilt, there is hindsight bias and there is confirmation bias. Hindsight bias occurs when, with the evidence of what has just happened, the investigator is sure he anticipated the outcome from the beginning and is convinced he knew […]

by Editor - Sunday, March 1st, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow  @bears_with At about noon, Moscow time, on Friday February 27, the Russian Security Council met in a video session. The regular weekly meeting of the Council is often at the end of the week.    The Foreign and Defense Ministers, Sergei Lavrov and Andrei Belousov,  and the head of the Foreign Intelligence Service, […]

by Editor - Sunday, March 1st, 2026
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By John Helmer, Moscow  @bears_with In order to understand what Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar did in Israel, start by reading Modi’s Knesset speech here.   Then calculate the weight of these Indian numbers:– There are 1.4 billion Indians; the Jews of India count for less than 5,000.– The number of […]

by Editor - Friday, February 27th, 2026
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