By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with
The news broke shortly after today’s Dialogue Works podcast went to air.
This is China’s attempt to take from Iran its two trump cards in defending itself from the US, Israel and their allies:
First card — Iran’s right of self-defence and retaliation against each and every base, including radars, logistics, intelligence, operational plans, military staffs and financing, which are being used to run the war on Iran.
Second card — counter-sanctions against the energy, other exports and food, tourism and other imports of all the states allied in the war against Iran, including India, Cyprus, UK, and the European states. The closure of the Hormuz Strait to these war-making countries, and the imposition of a permissions regime for neutral and friendly states, are part of Iran’s defence. They are also a counter to the scheme of sanctions against Iran’s economy and asset seizures which has been kept in place by the anti-Iran alliance for forty years, and which were reinforced through the United Nations Security Council snapback mechanism in 2025.
In camouflage for what China is doing against Iran, it has just announced its support “to strengthen the primacy of the UN.”
This is Point 5 in the “Five-Point Initiative of China and Pakistan” which was published following talks in Beijing between Wang Yi, China’s Politburo member and Foreign Minister under President Xi Jinping. Read the full text.
Point 1 calls for “immediate cessation of hostilities”. This is the ceasefire which has been repeatedly dismissed by Iranian officials, including Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s Five-Point term sheet of March 12.
Point 2 claims “dialogue and diplomacy is [sic] the only viable option to resolve conflicts”. After the record of negotiation by the US before the June 2025 war and now the February 28 war, this statement is false on the evidence. Also, it is a claim that is contradicted by China’s position on the future of Taiwan as non-negotiable.
Point 3 declares that “the parties to the conflict [should] stop attacking important infrastructure, including energy, desalination and power facilities, and peaceful nuclear infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants.” This is China’s alibi for Israel to retain its Dimona and Sdot Mikha facilities for enriching uranium for bomb and missile warheads aimed at Iran; and for Iran to disarm itself in the face of the global alliance committed to regime change in Teheran. By omission, China has now accepted that assassination of Iran’s leaders, scientists and military commanders by the US and Israel, aided and endorsed by the Arab sheikhs, should be accepted by Iran in the peace talks to follow – without the penalties and reparations declared in Khamenei’s Five Points.
Point 4 of the Beijing paper is headed “security of shipping lanes”. Drafted by Wang, this is designed to open the Strait of Hormuz to the financial profit of all states, starting with China, but with the exception of Iran. There is no mention of the closure, let alone opening, of all the world’s seas and straits to Iran’s shipping.
“The Chinese have an annoying habit of believing everyone else is an idiot,” responds a Moscow source in a position to know.
He interprets Wang’s motive — and behind him President Xi — is to secure short-term oil and gas supplies at lower cost; and in the medium term, ahead of the rescheduled talks with President Donald Trump in China in mid-May, to reduce the escalation of the US war plan against China. “I’m also beginning to suspect that Xi’s purges of the military have a lot less to do with the corruption that’s been announced than with repression of those unhappy with the comfortable elites around him [Xi] selling out to the US.”
The source also points to Wang’s statement of March 8, declaring that China is “a sincere friend and strategic partner” — not to Iran under attack but to all “Middle Eastern countries” including the Arab states and Israel. “This is a war that should not have happened…Wilful use of force does not prove one’s strength.” By omitting to identify the US, Israel and their allies in the attacks commencing on February 28, Wang, according to the interpretation in Moscow, is sacrificing Iran for Xi’s and Wang’s calculation of their own advantage.
Since last December senior Russian officials, including Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and the Kremlin national security advisor Yury Ushakov, have been expressing doubt in the “sincerity” of the Xi-Wang friends.
The suspicion in Moscow is that China is betraying its commitments to Iran under their 2021 agreement – without going as far in the betrayal as the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s explicit and secret support for the US and Israel’s war. This means that two of the foundation states of BRICS have defaulted on the collective security the organization has promised.
That leaves Russia. Listen or view the hour-long discussion with Nima Alkhorshid, broadcast at 7 in the US morning, 2 in the Moscow afternoon.
THE HORMUZ STRAIT IS NO LONGER ON THE US TERM SHEET
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dfAcNkHEdWY
CHINA PUTS ITS SINCERITY ON THE TABLE
Beijing meeting on March 31 between Wang Yi (second from right) and Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar (second from left). Source: https://www.dawn.com/news/1987106 In Dar’s tweet, he said: “Our conversations from restricted talks to delegation-level discussions, followed by a warm & gracious dinner, extended over three hours of substantive, thoughtful, and forward-looking exchanges…The Pakistan–China All-Weather Strategic Partnership continues to flourish…Always a great pleasure to engage with a trusted friend and an iron-clad partner.”
RUSSIA CALLS OUT TRUMP LIES
“Our primary focus was on upholding the international law, not so much on defending Iran which is more than our ally but is our strategic partner, as set out in the relevant intergovernmental agreement…For the second time in a row, the aggression against this country has begun at the height of negotiations…This inevitably raises questions regarding the US negotiators who ran the point on this political and diplomatic process. When senior members of the US administration speak with bravado and pride about the cold-blooded killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader and other members of the country’s leadership, one can hardly see this as anything other than cynical behaviour…the underlying cause - the US-Israeli aggression - holds the key to settlement.” https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/2089000/
TRUMP ANNOUNCES REGIME CHANGE AND OTHER WAR AIMS ACHIEVED, IRAN NOW PAYING OIL CARGO TRIBUTE TO US
https://www.ft.com/content/3bd9fb6c-2985-4d24-b86b-23b7884031f5?syn-25a6b1a6=1
“To be honest with you, my favourite thing is to take the oil in Iran but some stupid people back in the US say: ‘why are you doing that?’ But they’re stupid people…Maybe we take Kharg Island, maybe we don’t. We have a lot of options,” Trump told the FT. “It would also mean we had to be there [in Kharg Island] for a while.” Asked about the state of Iranian defence on Kharg Island he said: “I don’t think they have any defence. We could take it very easily.” When asked whether a ceasefire deal could be reached in the coming days that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz: “We’ve got about 3,000 targets left — we’ve bombed 13,000 targets — and another couple of thousand targets to go,” he said. “A deal could be made fairly quickly.” Last week, he said that Iran had permitted 10 Pakistan-flagged oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz as a “present” to the White House. The number of tankers had now been doubled to 20, he told the FT, which was not possible to immediately verify. “They gave us 10,” he said. “Now they’re giving 20 and the 20 have already started and they’re going right up the middle of the Strait.” “The people we’re dealing with are a totally different group of people . . . [They] are very professional,” Trump said. Trump also reiterated his claims that Mojtaba Khameini, Khamenei’s son and Iran’s new supreme leader, could be either dead or severely injured. “The son is either dead or in extremely bad shape,” Trump said. “We’ve not heard from him at all. He’s gone.”
Presser on Air Force One : March 29: https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-press-gaggle-air-force-one-march-29-2026/ Question: You, you had offered that 15 point plan to Iran. Did they ever come back with – Donald Trump: Yeah. Question: -- with a response? Donald Trump: They came back on the 50 point point. Question: What did, what did they say? Donald Trump: They gave us most of the points. Why wouldn't they? Question: And you, you, you, you make it sound like they've made some concessions. Can you identify those? Donald Trump: Well, they're agreeing with us on, on the plan. I mean, we asked for 15 things, and for the most part, we're gonna be asking for a couple of other things. And just to prove that they're serious, they gave us all these boats. When I talked about four days ago, a present, I said, "They gave me a present," but I didn't think I was, uh, at liberty to say what it was. What it was was eight plus two. It's 10 massive boat loads of oil. And today they gave us another present. They gave us 20 boat loads of war and that starts being shipped tomorrow. We're having very good meetings, both directly and indirectly, and I think we're getting a lot of very important points…Question: No. The issue of the Strait of Hormuz and Iran control of it and, and charging tolls, what do you think about that or what, what -- Donald Trump: Well, I have to find out if it's true. I mean, you know, they're gonna do whatever they have to do. We could close that up at two minutes. We could close that up so fast, your head would spin…Question: Do you wanna see Gulf countries that are being attacked by Iran to start to fight back? Donald Trump: They are fighting back. Uh, Saudi Arabia's fighting back hard. Uh, Qatar is fighting back. Uh, UAE is fighting back. Kuwait's fighting back. Bahrain's fighting back. They're all fighting back. Actually, they were surprised to be hit. I was very surprised they got hit. And once they got hit, they started fighting very well. We're very strong communications with all of those countries and they've all been fighting. They're 100% on our side.” The Wall Street Journal report of an end-of-war settlement without the Hormuz Strait opening followed here: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/trump-iran-war-strait-of-hormuz-ee950ad4?st=HzHj6S
Source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating
Leave a Reply