By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with
Iran has made one point very clear to the United States. It will negotiate on terms for a “permanent peace” but not for a ceasefire. It will fight on against US troops if they land, against US bases in the Arab states, and against US vessels at sea; it will keep the Hormuz Strait closed.
Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi repeated this point in three interviews he gave the NBC and PBS television networks on March 6, March 8 and March 9.
President Vladimir Putin has made one point very clear to Iran. “I want to confirm our unwavering support of Tehran and our solidarity with our Iranian friends,” he said in his message of March 9 to the new Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. “Russia has been and will remain the Islamic Republic’s reliable partner. I wish you success in tackling the challenges in front of you, good health and strong spirit.”
The next day Putin telephoned Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to “reaffirm his principled stance in favour of de-escalating the conflict as soon as possible and resolving it via political means. Masoud Pezeshkian expressed gratitude for the support provided by Russia, including in particular the humanitarian aid granted to Iran.” De-escalation isn’t ceasefire first; as soon as possible isn’t a short war; humanitarian aid isn’t exactly military aid but it may be. Putin’s wish for Mojtaba Khamenei’s “good health” may extend to new Russian measures for his security; or they may be no more than Putin’s wish.
Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, then announced the maybes are mightnots. “’All of these issues were not discussed during that conversation [with Pezeshkian]’ in response to a question whether the presidents discussed Iran’s alleged demands to the United States, including guarantees against the resumption of hostilities, the right for a full peaceful nuclear fuel cycle as well as possible compensations.” Not exactly nothing was said, Peskov meant. But he omitted to say if Putin told Pezeshkian that Russia’s support for Iran’s security and for the new Supreme Leader’s “good health” is “unwavering”.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, however, did say this to Aragchi in their telephone call on March 10. Russia backs negotiations “with due consideration for [the] security interests of Iran and its regional neighbours”, the foreign ministry communiqué announced.
President Xi Jinping has made nothing very clear — by his silence.
Instead, he has delegated Wang Yi to speak. Wang is a Communist Party Politburo member and Foreign Minister; the first rank is more important than the second. “China calls for an immediate stop to military operations to avoid the spiralling escalation of the situation”, Wang said on March 8. “All sides should return to the negotiating table as quickly as possible, resolve differences through equal dialogue, and make efforts for realizing common security.” That’s to say, ceasefire first; negotiations second.
Wang then told his spokesman to announce on March 11: “As to China-Russia relations, both sides develop bilateral ties based on the principle of non-alliance, non-confrontation and not targeting any third party.” This is the first time China has officially emphasized its non-alliance with Russia. At their last direct conversation on February 4, 2026, the Kremlin spokesman had said: “Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping once again noted that the comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation between our two countries are at an unprecedented level, are based on equality and mutual benefit, are not directed against any third parties, and are not subject to short-term political considerations.” “Comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation” was the watchword of their joint communiqué in Moscow on May 8, 2025; and in Kazakhstan on July 3, 2024; Putin told Xi in Moscow on March 21, 2023, “Russian-Chinese cooperation has truly limitless possibilities and potential, and we will continue to act in unison.”
The war against Iran is now exposing unexpected limits in the way the Russians and Chinese view each other and act.
Wang has also delegated a special envoy, Zhai Jun, “to carry out shuttle diplomacy. To prolong or escalate the conflict does not serve any party’s interest. China will continue to maintain communication with relevant parties, including parties to the conflict, step up mediation, build consensus, and work for the de-escalation of the situation.” This week Zhai has met with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary-General, the Saudi Foreign Minister, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Foreign Minister. Zhai reported publicly that he “urges all parties to immediately bring about a ceasefire and end the fighting and prevent further escalation of tensions, and to return to the track of negotiation at an early date”. But Zhai did not meet with Foreign Minister Aragchi. He omitted to tell him to cease fire first, negotiate afterwards. In the Chinese calculation, Aragchi was not a “relevant party” for Zhai’s diplomacy to shuttle to.
This casts doubt on the support Wang gave Aragchi when they spoke by telephone on March 2; the call was at the Iranian request, Wang’s communiqué reported. “Wang Yi… noted that China values the traditional friendship between China and Iran and supports Iran in safeguarding its sovereignty, security, territorial integrity and national dignity and in upholding its legitimate and lawful rights and interests… China believes that under the current grave and complex situation, Iran will maintain its national and social stability, take seriously the legitimate concerns of neighbouring countries, and ensure the safety of Chinese citizens and institutions in Iran. Seyed Abbas Araghchi noted that the Iranian side will do its utmost to guarantee the safety and security of Chinese personnel and institutions.”
This is Chinese neutrality, according to some analysts. It is China first; Iran after; Russia last of all, according to others because “Beijing cares about the oil, not the [Iran] regime”.
And so, to repeat: “As to China-Russia relations, both sides develop bilateral ties based on the principle of non-alliance, non-confrontation and not targeting any third party.”
Does this mean that the Iran war is now threatening China’s oil supply and economic stability so seriously that there has been a crack-up in Xi’s alliance with Putin? Does “non-alliance” mean “neutrality”? Does it mean that when President Donald Trump is welcomed by Xi in Beijing in three weeks’ time, the strategic US objectives of driving a wedge between China and Russia and between China and Iran will have been achieved? For answer, listen now to the Gorilla Radio broadcast with Chris Cook, recorded on Wednesday afternoon, Vancouver time.
For back-up evidence, click to the next page.
Follow Chris Cook and Gorilla Radio, now in its 21st year from Canada: https://gradio.substack.com/p/gorilla-radio-with-chris-cook-john-5e6 The broadcast archive can also be heard on Telegram at https://t.me/gorillaradio2024
NBC with Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, March 6: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e33tvx9wfs0 NBC with Aragchi, March 8: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/irans-foreign-minister-rejects-calls-ceasefire-continue-fighting-rcna262291 PBS with Aragchi, March 9 –5:15 pm: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/what-irans-foreign-minister-told-us-about-the-next-supreme-leader-rising-oil-prices
Source: https://x.com/araghchi/status/2031440101989917010
Source: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79307
“The ministers continued to exchange opinions regarding the current situation in the Middle East that has deteriorated drastically due to the unprovoked US-Israeli aggression against Iran. Sergei Lavrov once again set forth the Russian side’s principled position in favour of deescalating the conflict as soon as possible and resuming the process of a political and diplomatic peace settlement. The Russian side is invariably ready to facilitate this process, with due consideration for security interests of Iran and its regional neighbours” -- https://mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/2085061/
“Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone call on Tuesday with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar and voiced opposition to the military strikes launched by Israel and the United States against Iran, saying that the use of force cannot truly resolve the issue but will create new problems and grave repercussions… Wang expressed China's willingness to keep playing a constructive role in promoting de-escalation. He also demanded that Israel take effective measures to ensure the safety of Chinese citizens..In response, Sa'ar said Israel attaches great importance to the matter and will safeguard the security of Chinese personnel and organizations.” https://www.chinadailyhk.com/hk/article/629774
“As to China-Russia relations, both sides develop bilateral ties based on the principle of non-alliance, non-confrontation and not targeting any third party” -- https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/xw/fyrbt/lxjzh/202603/t20260309_11871584.html At their last meeting on February 4, 2026 (by video conference), Putin told Xi: “Russia and China have forged an exemplary comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation…the ties between Moscow and Beijing in foreign policy remain an important stabilising factor amidst growing turbulence in the world. We are ready to continue the closest coordination on global and regional agendas, both bilaterally and within all the multilateral frameworks: the UN, BRICS, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and others, where the Russian-Chinese tandem plays an essential role.” http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/79098#:~:text=the%C2%A0ties%20between,an%C2%A0essential%20role
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