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By John Helmer

Georgian gold miner Madneuli gets Russian financing for goldmine moves in Armenia, Azerbaijan lodges protest

Georgian gold miner Madneuli gets Russian financing for goldmine moves in Armenia, Azerbaijan lodges protest.

Queen Tamar, the greatest of the Georgian sovereigns (1184-1213), is responsible for the habit Georgian rulers have displayed for the past millennium of treating neighbouring Armenia, Azerbaijan, Ossetia, and the Black Sea coast of Turkey as protectorates. But as Tamar also taught her countrymen, Georgian ambition always runs out of gas when the neighbours prove to be just as ambitious, richer, or tougher.

It is thus quite natural that the current President of Georgia, Mikhail Saakashvili, will regularly denounce the Kremlin for ordering airborne attacks on his country, including a missile which fell, unexploded, near the Georgian capital Tibilisi, on August 6. The Washington Post thundered: “The United States and Europe should help Georgia bring the issue before the U.N. Security Council.” Latvia and Lithuania sent experts to investigate. Russian officials accused Georgia of planting the missile, and fabricating the aircraft incursion as part of an alleged “theatrical show”.

Then on August 21, the government in Tbilisi claimed there had been a fresh crossing of Georgian airspace by a Russian aircraft. The chief of the Russian general staff, Yury Baluyevsky, responded that the allegations were proof that “our Georgian colleagues have started hallucinating.”

Unreported and almost unnoticed, but at the same time, Saakashvili ordered his kin to apply to Moscow for financing to support Georgia’s principal mining company, Madneuli, in a bid to acquire goldmines and deposits across the border in Armenia and Azerbaijan. This month, Russian financing has covered the purchase of about $80 million in cash, plus assumption of debt, for the Zod gold mine and other assets controlled, until now, by Sterlite Gold, a wholly owned unit of Vedanta Resources, and its chief executive, Anil Agarwal.

Mineweb has reported for months that Agarwal was operating a silent auction of Sterlite’s Armenian assets, in defiance of Armenian government claims. Agarwal, Vedanta, and Sterlite said nothing to the market. Then, on August 15, eleven days after Mineweb revealed that Armenian government prosecutors had started court proceedings to revoke Sterlite’s licences, this announcement appeared on Sterlite’s website: “Sterlite Gold Ltd. (TSX:SGD) announced today that it has been advised of an agreement between its controlling shareholder, Vedanta Resources plc and GeoProMining Ltd. (”GeoProMining”), parent company of Georgian mining Joint Stock Company Madneuli, which may lead to an offer for the shares in Sterlite Gold. The Board of Directors will appoint an independent committee to receive, consider and make a recommendation regarding any proposal that may be made. Vedanta Resources plc, the holder of 84.2% of the common shares of Sterlite Gold, announced today that it has entered into an agreement with GeoProMining to tender its Sterlite Gold shares at a price of US$0.3845 per common share in cash. The Board of Directors of Sterlite Gold will communicate its views to shareholders on any offer made by GeoProMining once it has received and considered the recommendation of the independent committee.”

Sources close to the transaction say they value the Zod and related Armenian gold assets at $127 million on a debt-free basis. They believe Vedanta took $80 million in cash for the sale, plus a hand-off of obligations.
But the money didn’t come from GeoPromMining, nor from Madneuli. It came from a well-known Russian conglomerate called Industrial Investors, headed by a former state minister and ex-parliamentary deputy, Sergei Generalov. Sources close to him have been telling Mineweb for some time that they cannot speak on the record about the links between Industrial Investors, Generalov, his partner Siman Povarenkin, and the Georgian business. But they confirm that Generalov is bankrolling Madneuli in its bid for Armenian gold.
The reason why is not explained; but the question needs asking because Generalov is no gold miner. He has been focusing primarily on building up a transportation conglomerate with Far Eastern Shipping Company (Fesco); Trans-Garant, a freight railroad; National Container Company, Russia’s largest box transporter; a Baltic cargo feeder line operating from Rotterdam; and with a big new container terminal in planning for Riga, Latvia. Acquiring these assets has cost Generalov almost $850 million in debt in the past year — a heavy burden that is uncomfortable for him to bear. Last month, he offered investors a new share issue to raise $200 million in fresh cash.

Generalov is also uncomfortable to discuss the fact that Madneuli is controlled by President Saakashvili through his family. According to published remarks from Shalya Natelashvili, head of the Georgian Labour Party, “the president has played a cardsharp and stolen the gold of the Georgian people, and now it has passed into the personal possession of his family.” Natelashvili is referring to Madneuli strongman, Timur Alasaniya, Saakashvili’s uncle.

Public records and media reports from Georgia are full of scandal associated with Madneuli. In 2004, several executives were arrested, one of them in Switzerland, on warrants from the Georgian prosecutors alleging tax evasion. In 2005, the government arranged the privatization of its 97% stake in Madneuli, triggering recriminations from the parliamentary opposition. They allege that Saakashvili had arranged for his uncle to take control of the company through a British Virgin Islands front company, Stanton Equities, which was financed in turn by Industrial Investors. It was reported at the time that the sale price of $35 million (plus $16 million to cover debt obligations) was too little; Madneuli’s operating profit for the year was alleged to be around $60 million.

Generalov was asked today how he explains financing the Saakashvili family company in light of the strategic and military conflict between Georgia and Russia. He and his spokesman were not available, and did not respond.

So what exactly is a major Russian financial group, with a high-profile figure like Generalov, doing as business partner and banker to the Saakashvili family, while Saakashvili himself is lodging charges against Russia at the United Nations? In a page-long, friendly interview with Saakashvili, published by the Wall Street Journal last Monday, Saakashvili attacked his “hostile, powerful northern neighbour, even more powerful every day with oil money. But we can’t be living in a state of gloom and paranoia.” The president went on to explain how every time Russia attacks Georgia with commercial sanctions, cutting off wine import licences or gas supplies, “we had to work on developing new sources. Next year we’ll be fully supplied by Azerbaijani power.”
Saakashvili’s interviewer did not ask, and Saakashvili did not mention, the $80 million in mint Russian money delivered so recently to Madneuli. Nor did they react to the official statement, issued by the Azerbaijani government the same day, last Monday, attacking the Georgians for attempting to mine the Zod gold on territory that traditionally, and legally, belongs to Azerbaijan.

How much electricity Saakashvili can expect to get from a government which has officially ordered its Foreign Ministry to demand an explanation from the Georgian government in Tbilisi? According to the text of a statement by Arif Iskenderov from Azerbaijan’s Natural Resources Ministry, issued in Baku on August 27, the Madneuli partnership with Industrial Investors intends to mine unlawfully, because 73% of the Soyudlu (Zod) gold deposit is located on territory occupied by Armenian forces. Other estimates of the illegal extension of Armenian mining claims indicate that about 50% of the deposit belongs to Azerbaijan.

Russian sources confirm the position. They told Mineweb that, following the outbreak of inter-ethnic violence between Armenians and Azeris as the Soviet Union collapsed in 1990 and 1991, the Armenian army took control of the Nagorno-Karabakh territory, an Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan’s borders. They also moved on to land which was fully Azerbaijan’s during the Soviet administration. According to these sources, the Armenians then moved their border westwards, and for western miners interested in the Soviet-proved gold deposits, they changed the maps.

It is unclear what the Armenian government intends to do about the Georgian incursion, except support it. As Mineweb reported early this month, the Yerevan government had launched a court prosecution to revoke the gold mining licence issued in 1999 to the Ararat Gold Recovery Company (AGRC). This is the local operating affiliate of Sterlite Gold.

Officials in the General Prosecutor’s Office in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, confirmed at the time that the legal action also sought a judicial order cancelling all operating permits for ARGC, and freezing the company’s bank accounts and moveable property.

The prosecutors claimed they were also seeking payments by ARGC into the court of 4.6 billion Armenian drams ($14 million), plus another $10 million, to cover claims the Armenian government alleges are owed by the mining company to the state budget. Agarwal and his spokesmen refused to respond to Mineweb questions on the Armenian troubles.

Sources in Yerevan now claim that the case against Sterlite was suspended, and that no action has been taken to revoke the Zod licences. This suggests de facto endorsement of the transfer of the assets to Saakashvili and Generalov. But the Armenians appear to be undecided on the financial position. They reason that since they are the underlying owners of the assets, for which Vedanta has just taken $80 million, they must be owed something, too. Of course, this value is complicated, or zeroed, by the Azerbaijan government’s claim on the territory. The Armenians are thus looking to the “powerful northern neighbour” to show whether, in fact, it is backing Saakashvili to develop Zod — in defiance of the Azeris. Or whether Generalov and Uncle Timur have gone too far.

Saakashvili has a big interest in knowing the answer to that question, along with President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan. With its $80 million, Vedanta has gotten clear away from the shaky ground, under which the Zod gold is buried. But everyone left behind can see that a great deal more money will be required from the Saakashvili family and Generalov to satisfy the Armenians, and pacify the Azeris. And that’s before a single shovel can be driven into the ground for mining purposes. Saakashvili noted ruefully to the Wall Street Journal this week: “If you relax on corruption, it will come back in two months.”

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By John Helmer in Moscow

LSE regulators and US government investigations trigger strategy differences on getting Rusal to market.

US and European banks are fighting among themselves over the terms of the proposed initial placement offering (IPO) of shares of United Company Rusal, the Russian owned bauxite miner and world’s no.2 aluminium producer.

The conflict between the bankers, and between shareholders in Rusal, is so intense, the Financial Services Authority (FSA), regulator of the UK market and the London Stock Exchange (LSE), has already appointed a team of specialists to analyse the disclosures, litigation, and lobbying documents that have been presented by advocates for and against Rusal, and its controlling shareholder, Oleg Deripaska.
(more…)

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By John Helmer in Moscow

For the hundred and fifty years between the Opium Wars and the end of World War II, the China Discount was notorious in the Shanghai Bund, on the bank of the Huangpu River. It represented the gap between the little western traders would agree to pay for Chinese-made goods, and the best their Chinese sellers hoped to fetch.

These days, China’s commercial demand has reversed the trading advantage. Since Chinese demand represents such a large share of the global market, especially in minerals and metals, the China Discount is now the gap between the price western sellers offer for their commodities, and what China agrees to pay. Converting the China Discount into a premium is the dream of all commodity exporters, but it is a commercial fight that requires nerves of steel.
(more…)

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By John Helmer in Moscow

Norway is one of those countries, inhabited by one of those peoples, which have exercised some of the greatest comedians in the English language – to little avail.

John Cleese once explained his assignment on behalf of the Norwegian Tourist Board, as he stepped out of a wet summer fjord wearing a business suit and snow-shoes. He said the only way to interest tourists in Norway was to make them laugh at the place. Much earlier, Saki had told the tale of a rich Londoner who paid a group of kidnappers, not to return his wife, but to keep her as reliably away from him as he thought possible — on a Norwegian island, above the Arctic Circle.
(more…)

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OPINION AND ANALYSIS

“It’s pleasant to be here, you feel comfortable, and you don’t feel people are watching you,” Roman Abramovich on buying Chelsea Football Club in London, for equity and debt totaling $240 million.

Russian villagers like to say that if you drink you die; and if you don’t drink you die, so it’s better to drink.

This is a characteristically pessimistic twist to Russian bravado. But among the Russian oligarchs who don’t lack chutzpah, it begs the question of whether their spending is as reckless as their drinking; and whether the recent behaviour of the oil plutocrats – men like Abramovich, whose source of wealth is the top-5 oil producer Sibneft, or Platon Lebedev and Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the controlling shareholders of number-2 oil producer Yukos – reflects optimism, or pessimism, for their own futures. (more…)

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By John Helmer in Moscow

Harry Lime was the character invented by novelist and one-time intelligence officer Graham Greene, who understood how an investment banker should operate when the breakdown of government makes the black market the only source of supply, trade, and profit. Lime’s racket in post-war Vienna, then occupied by the allied armies, was to steal penicillin from military hospitals; adulterate it by half; then sell it back at double the official price.

In the famous Ferris wheel conversation, high above the Vienna fairground, Lime is asked by his journalist friend about the morality of making a profit this way. Pointing to people on the ground, he responds: “If I offered you twenty thousand pounds for every dot that stopped, would you really, old man, tell me to keep my money, or would you calculate how many dots you could afford to spare?”.
(more…)

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By John Helmer

Armenia plans revocation of Zod gold mine licence, as Georgians push for bargain-priced asset flip

The Armenian Government goes to court on Monday of this week to revoke the gold mining licence issued in 1999 to the Ararat Gold Recovery Company (AGRC). This is the local operating affiliate of Sterlite Gold, which in turn is controlled by London-based Vedanta Resources and controlling shareholder, Anil Agarwal. The Armenian gold assets include two mines, Zod and Meghradzor, and an ore-processing plant at Ararat.

Officials in the General Prosecutor’s Office in Yerevan, the Armenian capital, have confirmed the legal action also seeks a judicial order cancelling all operating permits for ARGC, and freezing the company’s bank accounts and moveable property. The prosecutors are also seeking payments by AGRC into the court of 4.6 billion Armenian drams ($14 million), plus another $10 million, to cover claims the Armenian government alleges are owed by the mining company to the state budget.

Vardan Vardanyan, AGRC’s chief executive, is quoted in the Armenian media as saying the company is aware of the suit, but had no information yet about the specifics of the government’s claims.
(more…)

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By John Helmer in Moscow

The torch that Oleg Deripaska, controlling shareholder of United Company Rusal, is trying to pass to Alexander Bulygin, Rusal’s chief executive, is proving to be a hot potato.

The Wall Street Journal reported this week that in its strategy for listing Rusal shares later this year on the London Stock Exchange, Bulygin has been designated to draw attention away from Deripaska in public, and is now identified by a company spokesman as “a key strategic decision maker for the company”. Watch that indefinite article.

The Journal also reported that Bulygin is having difficulty dealing with two gaffes which Deripaska made in an interview with the Financial Times early in July, when he claimed that Michael Cherney “had no relation to my business”; and that “if the state says we need to give it [Rusal] up, we’ll give it up.” Deripaska was responding to the two risks which industry analysts and financial advisors to Rusal have flagged as the principal obstacles to a successful LSE listing of the company — Cherney’s claim, currently in litigation in the UK High Court, that he owns 20% of Deripaska’s stake in the company; and the possibility that the Kremlin may have its own claim on Rusal.
(more…)

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MOSCOW –

A press statement this week from the southeastern Siberian town of Irkutsk revived hopes that Russia’s El Dorado, and one of the world’s largest unmined gold deposits, may be about to go on the market.

Sukhoi Log (“Dry Gulch”in Russian), according to Nikolai Suslov, deputy head of the Irkutsk region agency for natural resources (Irkutsknedra), may be put up for public auction “ïn the next few months” — “by the end of 2007, or the beginning of 2008”. Suslov’s timing was initially reported by Interfax, and then Bloomberg picked up the story. The full report of Suslov’s remarks indicate that his focus was on two relatively minor prospecting licences to be put on the block in September and October — the Isko-Tagulsky nickel prospect, and the Uryahsky gold deposit.
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MOSCOW –

The Armenian government ordered prosecutors last week to put a stop to an attempt by the Vedanta group in London to auction off its rights to the Zod gold mine to the highest bidder.

Two weeks ago, following six months of investigation, the Armenian prosecutor’s office in Yerevan went to court on behalf of the Ministry of Natural Resources, to seek a ruling to revoke the Zod licence, which has been held since 1998 by Vedanta’s Canadian-listed subsidiary, Sterlite Gold (ticker SGD). The judge deferred his ruling on the procedural ground that the due diligence, which had been undertaken by the prosecutor’s office since January, lacked the appropriate order from the government. The Armenian prime ministry then arranged for the ministerial resolution to be drafted and issued, and an accelerated investigation has already begun.
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