By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

This is the story of how recent calculations by President Donald Trump, Vladimir Zelensky, and President Vladimir Putin have come up short more quickly than they were expecting.

It’s a short story — Trump’s is the shortest of the three.

Trump and Zelensky have believed that the war which they, their allies, their media, and their voters – their predecessors too, going back a hundred years – have been waging against Russia was succeeding slowly,  at a price they could afford to pay over time,  but Putin could not. In time, they calculated, their war would break Putin in the Kremlin and push Russia into a chaos from which they would profit at the Russians’ expense.

It’s the strategy of overthrow from within, driven by pressure from without, which succeeded in just five years with Mikhail Gorbachev, and then in ten years with Boris Yeltsin. It’s also the same Anglo-American and German strategy which failed the first time with Vladimir Lenin, and failed the second time with Joseph Stalin.

On the evidence of the most recent Russian public opinion polling – measured by the Levada Centre of Moscow one week after Russian voters had gone to the national parliamentary election – this calculation isn’t entirely mistaken. “In September… the level of support for the actions of the Russian military remains high; seven out of ten respondents support the actions of the Russian military in Ukraine. At the same time, two-thirds of respondents are in favour of the transition to peace negotiations; only one-quarter for the continuation of hostilities. Most of the respondents would support Vladimir Putin’s decision if he decided ‘right now this week’ to end the military conflict with Ukraine. However, if the end of the conflict would require the return of the annexed territories, only one-third of the respondents would support such a decision.”  

When the Levada pollsters divided their voter sample into those who would support Putin ending the war unconditionally — accepting a ceasefire in place and returning the annexed territories —  and those who baulked at these conditions and opposed such a settlement, the result was a split between men and women, the higher and lesser educated, the big-city and provincial residents, and those who depend on the alternative media for their news instead of the mainstream media.

It is clear that the allied and Ukrainian targeting of the drone and missile attacks in the Russian hinterland has aimed at those young, urban, middle-class Russians already least supportive of continuing the war. This has been a political gaming strategy which Trump and his officials have shared with NATO and with the Kiev regime.

“Mr. Zelensky has to do one thing,” Trump tried explaining this strategy at an Irish golf course on September 13. “He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia. Let him go after targets, but not diesel fuel ’cause he’s causing a shortage of diesel fuel. This isn’t done by the Middle East, this is done by what’s happening with Russia and Ukraine. So, uh, we spoke to Mr. Zelensky about it. There are plenty of other targets. Don’t hit diesel fuel because that’s hurting, that’s hurting the world. We don’t want him to hit diesel fuel. He has to stop knocking out diesel fuel in Russia. Let him go after targets but not diesel fuel, because he’s causing a shortage of diesel fuel.”  

Trump’s calculation was that he could appeal in this fashion to US voters to neutralize the blame they were putting on him for fuel price inflation, and thereby to reverse the decline in Republican Party votes ahead of the November 3 Congressional election. He was asking Zelensky to help; he was calling him mister.

This invited Putin’s calculation that he could drive a wedge between the two of them by offering Trump the diesel he wanted to turn into votes.  In the five weeks since September 13, this is how the cards were played. Except that the diesel traders and US voters have not been persuaded: the New York Harbor marker price for diesel price went down from its mid-September peak; rose again;  fell again;  and is now higher than it was in response to Putin’s offer to start shipping Russian diesel in exchange for Trump suspending sanctions on the shipments and the tanker trade.  

Not a drop of the Russian diesel has landed at a US port.  Zelensky has continued to strike  refineries and terminals in Rostov, Ryazan, and St Petersburg as his targets. Trump has dropped the mister.

“Zelensky,” he tweeted on October 18, “is using Diesel Refineries in Russia as a target, knowing that these attacks are seriously hurting the world diesel markets, including those in the United States. Farmers, ranchers, and businesses of all kinds are suffering greatly from this, but Russia is, nevertheless, sending, at a low price, millions of barrels of diesel to the World. Zelensky doesn’t care, and frankly, with all of the money that Europe is famously giving him, and that Crooked Joe Biden gave him in the past, he doesn’t want to end this war, and probably never did. He could have made a better deal two years ago than he can now. His country is in shambles, a large portion of his land is lost, his oceans and seas are gone, and his male population is low, wounded, and/or dead.”   

Putin’s calculation is that with Trump he can achieve an end to the war on the Ukrainian battlefield for the time being; gain the time the General Staff is requesting to prepare for the wars the US alliance is directing on other fronts; to deliver terms which Russian voters will accept; and secure a stable succession for himself and the oligarchs on whom Putin has depended from the very beginning. Trump’s corruption was his opportunity, and he calculated there isn’t much time left to play it.

“In this situation, bribing Trump is the only card Putin has,” says a Moscow source in a position to know, “— and at the moment you can see for yourself, it is producing results.”

“There is no diesel deal with Trump worth anything. That is not the point. This non-deal is not the point at all. It is all about making Trump perform in a manner that can bring some benefit in money and some benefit in discord in NATO to the Russian side. That’s all it is, and it is working.  There is no question bribes have already been paid. Whether for Trump family weddings, gifts, crypto business – you name it, it’s been paid. The Russian oligarchs and the Kremlin gladly play these games to free up their own money and take some advantage in the battlefield.”

“Trump will not hand the war and terms to the Russians but his actions will help. You can see the Europeans are coming around to the position that they cannot give any more money and they can’t act alone without the US. So the statements from Trump help in dissuading the weaker  Europeans, and add to the pressure on the stronger ones. All this is helping. A corrupt Trump helps the Russians.”

“In this situation, continuing to dangle bribes and bribing his children, achieves the purpose.”

“The question for us is how much compromise Putin will make; I believe he will make a few,  knowing fully well that the active phase of war does not give all the gains that were hoped for; and that passive long-term war with Europe needs preparation and freeing up the economy from sanctions. Plus, he is now admitting publicly that he did not foresee the attacks on data centres;  refineries;  and other civilian objects. This means there was nothing like the  tacit understanding which Putin believed there was – just his expectation that the Americans, Brits, Germans and French wouldn’t go so far, would be deterred by the threats he and [Foreign Minister Sergei] Lavrov have been making. His expectations for Trump and the Americans have come out obviously wrong. After letting the Libyans, Syrians, Iranians, Cubans, Venezuelans down, Putin is sticking to expectations his enemies believe have proved wrong. That’s why they continue to be confident that if they keep up the war pressure for two more years, they will succeed against Putin as they had against Gorbachev and Yeltsin. They are confident Putin has no Stalin cards to play.”

(more…)

by Editor - Monday, October 19th, 2026
No Comments »

By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

For three consecutive days last week, October 5-7, specially equipped intelligence-gathering aircraft of the Swedish Air Force and the US Army flew multiple missions over the southern area of the Black Sea, taking off from bases in Bucharest and Constanta, Romania, and concentrating on the Bulgarian coastline and territorial waters to the east; the northern Turkish coast; and Georgia (lead image, top map).

The Italian military monitoring site, Itamilradar.com, reported the flights as a big change in NATO operations in the region.

“What makes today’s activity particularly interesting is not the individual missions, but their overlap. The two aircraft are operating simultaneously over the same strategic area while approaching the mission from different basing arrangements and with different sensor configurations. This creates a more layered intelligence picture: the Korpen [Swedish Air Force] can contribute its specialized SIGINT collection, while ARTEMIS II  [US Army] provides another US-operated source of electronic and communications intelligence. The combination is therefore more significant than simply counting two reconnaissance aircraft in the same area. The pattern also underlines the importance of Romania as an ISR [Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaisance] hub. Bucharest and Constanța allow allied aircraft to reach the Black Sea without requiring them to operate from distant bases, supporting a persistent surveillance presence over international waters.”

“Today’s simultaneous activity is another indication that Black Sea ISR is being conducted as a sustained NATO effort rather than as a series of isolated missions. After three consecutive days of Korpen operations, the Swedish contribution is particularly noteworthy, while the concurrent ARTEMIS II mission adds another layer to the picture.”    

On October 6, two merchant vessels were hit in the Bulgarian economic zone of the Black Sea, the first strike at 70 nautical miles (nm — 130km) off the Bulgarian coastal town of Byala; the second 140nm east of the Bulgarian coastline (lead image, bottom map). Reuters reported: “Shipping sources said it appeared to be the first such attack in the waters of Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone.”  Blame was reported as Russian, and a Ukrainian denial of responsibility was printed.

The first vessel was independently identified as the Alfa Watan, Togo-flagged, Turkish-owned, which reportedly sank;  the second was the Able, Palau-flagged, Turkish-owned,   which subsequently made port at Varna.   The Alfa Watan had been sailing north; the Able south.

Sea and aerial drones have been reported as the weapons used in the attacks. No recovery of drone fragments has been reported:  if the Bulgarians and their NATO advisors have recovered evidence of the launch points and course, they are keeping it secret.  

Bulgarian territorial waters extend eastwards into the Black Sea at a distance of 12nm; the  exclusive economic zone (EEZ) extends from 12nm to 200nm.  In the latter, Bulgaria has exclusive sovereign rights to explore, exploit, conserve, and manage natural resources (such as fish, oil, gas, and wind energy) in the water and seabed. However, the area of the attack is international waters for free navigation and flight.

Was NATO intelligence used by the drone operators to attack the two vessels? Was Russia responsible?

Maritime Executive, a maritime industry publication based in the US, reported: “Russia’s embassy in Bulgaria told Reuters that the two ships were not on the Ministry of Defense’s target list. It cautioned that an investigation was needed to identify the source of the drones that struck the two ships. The Maritime Administrator in Bulgaria, however, said the ship was outside the country’s direct responsibility and that they were not planning an underwater search. He did not comment on whether any debris from the drones had been recovered.”  

A week later on October 13, there were two new drone attacks against vessels in the Bulgarian EEZ, just outside the territorial limit.

The Bulgarian press reported “Two merchant ships sailing in Bulgaria’s Black Sea exclusive economic zone on October 13 came under drone attacks, with one sunk, Prime Minister Roumen Radev said. The Turkish-owned, St Vincent and Grenadines-flagged Azov Concorde was hit 17 nautical miles from Krapets on Bulgaria’s north Black Sea coast and sank. One crew member was rescued. The Ukrainian-owned Maltese-flagged Chelsea 3 was hit 15 nautical miles from the coast of Byala, a small town about 50km south of Varna. Fifteen crew were rescued.”  

The blame for the attacks on Russia was announced publicly by the Bulgarian government.  According to Prime Minister Roumen Radev, “we do not have clear evidence to accuse any of the parties. But logic indicates that the result is in favour of the Russian Federation. Therefore, today I will call Ambassador Mitrofanova for a conversation.”    

The Bulgarian and maritime media have not reported the NATO reconnaissance missions in the area at the time; the Italian military monitor was unaware of the drone attacks. The connection between them was discussed in this podcast with Nima Alkhorshid on October 13; click to view.   In Moscow on October 14 there was an extended report on the incidents in Vzglyad, the Kremlin-backed platform for military, economic, political and security analysis.    

The following is a verbatim translation into English without editing; illustrations have been added.

(more…)

by Editor - Wednesday, October 14th, 2026
No Comments »

By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

The scheme which Kirill Dmitriev (lead image centre), the Kremlin’s negotiator for American money-making schemes, has been planning with Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner for Russian diesel to be traded to the US, relieved of sanctions,  in exchange for  US delivery of Vladimir Zelinsky’s agreement to Russian end-of-war terms,  has failed.

No Russian diesel has been reported by international ship tracking sources as leaving a Russian port or redirecting from a high seas position to a US port fixed as its destination. The New York Harbour marker for the price of diesel for future delivery has now (October 13) risen 3% since October 9, before Witkoff and Kushner announced it to Ukrainian officials and President Vladimir Putin discussed it with President Donald Trump (lead image, left and right). Trump followed with the announcement of Russian shipments of “over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace [in October], another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter. Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel.”  

Putin had agreed, according to a Kremlin statement, to “willingness to supply oil and petroleum products to the American and global markets. I [Putin] am sure that this will have a positive impact on the entire global economy.”  Yury Ushakov, Putin’s foreign affairs adviser, said he and Trump had “discussed the preparations in detail of large-scale economic initiatives, including possible deliveries of Russian oil products to American and global markets.”  

Between Putin’s lip and Trump’s cup, there has been a slip. Putin’s “willingness” for “possible deliveries of Russian oil products” was conditional on Trump’s power to enforce end-of-war terms.  The diesel market now sees Trump defaulting.

The latest US voter polls are marking Trump’s performance on the Russia-Ukraine war as no better than voters recorded before last Friday’s telephone call; his performance on fuel price inflation as worse.  

In Moscow, Vzglyad, the Kremlin-backed security policy platform, asked the rhetorical question and then celebrated Russian cleverness in the answer:  “Skeptics are now asking: who are we doing this for? After everything that’s happened between us, wouldn’t it be more logical to gloat while watching the American market teetering? Wouldn’t it be wiser to finish it off for all the harm it has caused us and the world? After all, the United States is reaping exactly what it sowed. Everyone remembers who attacked Iran and who turned the comedian into a monster… We’re saving Donald Trump. But we try only for our own sake… Not helping Trump would mean helping the Democrats – the very ones who nurtured Zelensky. However, it would be more accurate to assume that we are not helping anyone except ourselves and are simply toting up our own benefits from the deal… Now the Europeans are buying diesel from America, and America, having betrayed its so‑called allies, is buying from whomever it wants. A miser pays twice, a fool pays thrice, and the European Union — until the money runs out.”  

In desperation, Dmitriev tweeted in blame for “the UK’s leftist government’s desire for ‘forever war in Ukraine’ to distract from its destruction of the British way of life.”  In Dmitriev’s wordbook,  “leftist” is the same as Trump’s “communist”; they are synonyms for the same hatred of Russia’s independence as has ideologized the permanent war against Russia for more than a century now by the US,  UK,  Hitler’s Germany, Mussolini’s Italy, and the Empire of the Rising Sun.

Dmitriev and his deal are now being buried alive by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.

“Over long,  recent months,” Lavrov has said, “the mantra of ‘ceasefire” has replaced the mantra of ‘inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia’ in the rhetoric of both Vladimir Zelensky and his Western masters. There is just one aim, and it is very simple – to buy time and gain a respite…I do not think we will once again be taken in by assurances and promises. President Vladimir Putin was very clear about this: we are continuing to pursue the objectives of the special military operation. Everyone knows perfectly well what they are. We have never changed them, unlike the vacillations and twists and turns of Vladimir Zelensky and his European masters. So, we have nothing to excuse ourselves for to anyone.”  

Peskov announced there is no deal.  “Communication is ongoing. As soon as we have something to say on the issue, we will certainly inform you…The Kremlin has said repeatedly, and President Putin has said so as well, along with officials at other levels: we want lasting peace, not a ceasefire, and we are ready to do everything possible to achieve it.”  

There will be no meeting in Moscow this week, as Trump had proposed, between Putin, Dmitriev, Ushakov, Witkoff and Kushner. “Moscow welcomes the work of American negotiators on a peaceful settlement in Ukraine: We are much more impressed by the efforts of American negotiators. We are grateful to them for pursuing those efforts.”  On October 13, Peskov repeated: “We discussed this issue yesterday, and for now I have nothing to add to what we said then. Contacts on this matter are continuing… There is no connection between the diesel agreement with the United States and Russia’s position on Ukraine; rather, it is a mutually beneficial example of Russian-US cooperation. I don’t see any connection here. In fact, it is an example of Russia-US cooperation that benefits both parties a lot.”  He means there is nothing to negotiate, not yet.

The Foreign Ministry has defended Putin for following Dmitriev.  Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters it is wrong to make “the assumption that Moscow made any concessions on the issue of the Ukrainian settlement, agreeing to a diesel deal with the United States. ‘No, I would not assess the agreement reached on a farfetched principle [в огороде бузина, а в Киеве – дядька – an elderberry in the garden for an uncle in Kiev]. This is not about that… The unprecedented, completely unique result of the presidents’ telephone conversation held two days ago, has stunned many in the ‘party of war’, and this party is numerous. We have always spoken and are in favour of a political solution, if the other side is not ready for it, the goals will be achieved militarily, and the negotiating position from this opposite side will weaken…The sooner they realize this, the better. I think the so-called diesel deal works hard to encourage those who have not yet understood it.”  

Referring to negotiations between his ministry and the State Department on US seizures of Russian diplomatic property in the US, Ryabkov added there has been “no movement on the main issues which the United States has made dependent on progress in the Ukrainian settlement.”  

Finance Minister Anton Siluanov is also defensive. He told the press in a separate interview that “our companies will get the opportunity to export diesel and receive revenue and currency for it; this is important for our balance of payments, and above all, of course, for the companies. No, we do not have export duties on diesel. But this will be taken into account in companies’ financial results, and they will accordingly pay taxes into the budget system.”  

For detailed analysis and discussion with Nima Alkhorshid, click to listen or view the new Dialogue Works podcast, which was aired live at midnight on Tuesday, Moscow time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I39CvRjWBcg 
 

by Editor - Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
No Comments »

https://www.outsidetbox.com/post/2018/10/29/samir-tankertrackerscom

Source: https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/2109216468055257129 

Source: https://x.com/TankerTrackers/status/2109512855351410954 

The vessel’s management company, Minerva Maritime, was asked today to confirm whether the cargo the Minerva Zen is discharging is diesel or liquid fertilizer.The company answered through Navigate Response, the press representative for Minerva Marine. According to Katerina Skourtanioti, the Minerva Zen “was transporting a liquid fertiliser cargo, urea ammonium nitrate (UAN) and not diesel.” 

by Editor - Monday, October 12th, 2026
No Comments »

By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

There has been breaking news since the podcasts with Dimitri Lascaris and Nima Alkhorshid analysing the telephone agreement on Russian diesel shipments to the US between President Vladimir Putin and President Donald Trump.

The diesel dealmaking had been under way for at least three weeks before the terms reached Putin and Trump to decide on Friday evening, Moscow time, October 9. Read more.  

The podcasts followed on Saturday.  Click to view or listen to Reason2Resist recorded at 9 am Moscow time, Saturday. Then live from  midnight Moscow time, Dialogue Works. 

Subsequently, it has been discovered and reported that a shipment of 36,000 metric tons of diesel had been loaded on the Minerva Zen, a Greek-owned and flagged tanker, in St Petersburg, which then set sail into the Atlantic in the direction of the east coast of the US, on September 22. That was seventeen days before Trump and Putin (lead image, right) reportedly concluded their deal for staged diesel shipments, commencing with a target of 300,000 tonnes in the month of October.

The Minerva Zen, according to maritime trackers, was scheduled to arrive at Wilmington, North Carolina, on Sunday evening, local time, October 11.  Last year, the vessel had been carrying Russian petroleum products to Brazil.  It is unclear whether Brazil was its original destination when it left St. Petersburg,  and if it had received a diversion order from the Kremlin.  It is also unclear who authorized the vessel to load and leave with diesel on September 22 when the Kremlin’s ban on diesel exports, introduced on July 8,  was still in effect.

It is reported that Kirill Dmitriev (lead image, left), Putin’s special negotiator with Steven Witkoff (lead image, left), Jared Kushner, the Trump family, and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has been negotiating terms of sanctions waivers for Russian crude oil and petroleum product exports for several months —  unsuccessfully. However, during Dmitriev’s trip to New York in September they negotiated terms of an agreement on a diesel fuel waiver for Trump to discuss with Putin on Friday. When precisely the terms were agreed, and when the Minerva Zen was ordered into Wilmington port, aren’t known yet.  

Dmitriev met Witkoff and Kushner in New York on September 29, Tass reported.  He then went to Washington where he held “a series of meetings…including with US Treasury and Energy Department officials, sources familiar with the talks told TASS. They discussed Russian-US economic cooperation.”

By then the Minerva Zen was already one week at sea, sailing at an average speed of less than 2 knots.

On September 25, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov had said that a deal trading  US sanctions relief of Russian diesel for a Black Sea and energy infrastructure ceasefire was unacceptable to Russian negotiators.   “If we are talking about saturating international markets with Russian diesel fuel, about export ban lifting, it is not enough to simply provide for domestic needs, diesel fuel reserves, and open diesel fuel exports. The safety of navigation in the Black Sea should be concurrently provided. But even that is not enough. For international markets to be saturated, the diesel should come there unhindered, that is, without any sanctions, without any restrictions, and so on. Therefore, only a comprehensive solution is possible here.”  

The Minerva Zen’s diesel cargo represents just 12% of the volume Trump has said has been agreed with Putin for the month of October.  Yury Ushakov, another of the Kremlin negotiations with Witkoff and Kushner, told reporters after the Friday call “I am afraid I cannot fully satisfy your curiosity, colleagues, by revealing all the details of the specific issues discussed by the two presidents.”  

Dmitriev has tweeted in celebration of Trump’s terms and of himself: “President Trump’s peacemaking efforts and clarity give a strong impetus to PEACE.”  “In 2020, Presidents Putin and Trump jointly stabilized oil prices and markets. Today, they continue their work. The diesel supply agreement showcases the power of economic cooperation between Russia and the US and its benefits to people and the world. Cooperation will prevail.”  “President Trump joins the many who believe that Ukraine needs leadership actually focused on peace, not Zelensky’s warmongering: ‘It’s time for Ukraine to get a new president.’ Iconic and historic.”  

Peskov responded to the announcement of the diesel deal which Witkoff and Kushner had discussred with Ukrainian officials in Miami on Friday, just before the presidential telcon. “ ‘We know that they are holding talks with the Ukrainians in the United States today. There allegedly are some comprehensive plans and ideas for a settlement. If these are indeed discussed in Miami, and if the American negotiators deem it necessary to share them in Moscow, then, of course, come on over,’ he added.”  

The day before, Peskov had dismissed proposals from the Indian foreign minister for an “energy ceasefire” as “piecemeal”. “We have also repeatedly said at various levels that we favor a comprehensive solution rather than a piecemeal one, a solution that would lead to a lasting settlement for many, many years, for decades.”  

From maritime industry sources, it is now certain the Minerva Zen’s cargo will be discharged  on Monday and Tuesday of this week  at the fuel terminal in Wilmington owned by Jared Donnelly and his family. Donnelly has been rewarded by substantial donations to the Trump campaigns by the appointment of Donnelly as the US Ambassador to New Zealand.

In the meantime, Russian and Ukrainian sources have reported that there was a Ukrainian attack with more than 50 drones on a Russian oil loading terminal in Rostov region on Saturday evening, several hours after the presidents had spoken.   

The next evening, Sunday, the Ukrainian attack involved more than 900 drones on Russian targets, but reportedly no refineries or other energy infrastructure. In Vladimir, the electric, heat and water supply was disrupted, and a third data centre of Yandex (previously hit in the Ryazan and Kaluga regions) was also attacked. In Lysychansk, 2 civilians were killed and 13 others were injured. There were fires on the territory of the airport in Sochi; also the wreckage of the drone fell on the territory of private homes and hotels in the area. There were no casualties.”  

Over the same Sunday evening, the Russian operations struck at “8 regions of Ukraine at night. In 4 districts of Kiev, emergency shutdowns were introduced after Russian strikes. In the Buchansky district, the warehouses of the Synthesis Group were burned by the Geran-5 strikes. The Tenet data centre in Odessa was hit; in the port of Chernomorsk dry cargo stocks were attacked…Locomotives in Odessa and Dnipropetrovsk region are affected.”  

Energy infrastructure targets hit included the Kievskaya electric substation in Kiev and the turbines of the Zmievskaya Thermal Power Plant and a gas pipeline passing through the territory of the plant.   

Trump tweeted on Sunday afternoon, his time: “Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it! Thank you for your attention to this matter.”   

Independent military blogger AMP Mapping responded, corroborating Tsarev’s reports: “In case it wasn’t already obvious, Trump’s statement about an energy ceasefire is a lie. Russian Geran-4/5 jet-drones have been attacking various energy facilities in Ukraine, including the TEC-5 Thermal Power Plant near Kharkov,  the 750 kV Kievskaya Substation, and the 330 kV Novokievskaya Substation, among others.”

Zelensky responded to Trump’s ceasefire claim through the Israeli-American propaganda sheet, Axios: “It was news to me. But if the Russians agree, Ukraine will also agree. Let us know when the truce begins.”  

Peskov replied: “Vladimir Zelensky is currently hysterical and incapable of taking deliberate action; if he were rational, he would be open to peace talks, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Vesti reporter Pavel Zarubin. ‘Zelensky, naturally, being in a state of hysteria, is hardly capable of taking any deliberate actions right now. If he were capable of doing so, he would show a willingness to engage in peace talks,’ the spokesman noted.”  

Repeating Trump, Dmitriev tweeted: “The Ukrainian election is coming.”

Ukrainian, European,  and British officials then told the Financial Times in London to report that “the Trump administration is threatening to stop the procurement system that provides Ukraine with weapons in order to press Kyiv to halt its deep strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, according to officials in Europe. The officials, who received calls from American officials on Saturday and Sunday or were briefed on them, said the US was lobbying European capitals and Kyiv in an attempt to end the attacks on Russian oil refineries. The White House declined to confirm or comment on the calls. The US message, the officials added, included threats to cut off intelligence sharing and PURL — the Prioritised Ukraine Requirements List mechanism for procuring US weapons for Ukraine. ‘They are calling Kyiv…they are calling everyone [in Europe]’ said an official who received a call from a US defence official. PURL is a NATO-managed initiative through which Kyiv’s allies purchase US-made weapons that are then supplied to Ukraine. The US does not make a financial contribution to the fund. One person who said he was contacted by US officials was Pavlo Palisa, Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s military adviser and former general of Ukraine’s 93rd mechanised brigade.”

(more…)

by Editor - Sunday, October 11th, 2026
No Comments »

By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

The telephone call which President Donald Trump has been trying to make to President Vladimir Putin since the morning of October 7, and which the Kremlin spokesman refused to confirm each day since,  was such a surprise when it happened on Friday evening, the Kremlin kept it secret from the Russian press until Trump spoke first.

Putin’s foreign policy advisor, Yury Ushakov, who has briefed Russian reporters after the presidential telephone conversations, did not appear as he usually does. He came later.

An announcement – unusually titled “A Statement by the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin” —  was posted by the Kremlin at 10:50 in the evening Moscow time (3:50pm in Washington, DC) to reveal the call had occurred. “During a telephone conversation with the President of the United States, Donald Trump, on October 9, considerable attention has been paid to the prospects for settlement the Ukrainian crisis, the situation around Iran and various aspects of bilateral relations. In the discussion of the state of affairs in the world energy sector the Russian side confirmed their willingness to supply oil and petroleum products to the American and global markets. I [Putin] am sure that this will have a positive impact on the entire global economy.”  

Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s advisor for negotiations with the Trump family and the US oligarchs, started a stream of celebration tweets. “President Putin and President Trump just had a successful call. Russia-US energy and economic cooperation will continue and benefit global markets and the world,” he began.  

Dmitriev retweeted Trump’s announcement: “I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter. Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel. Between our TOTAL CONTROL of the Strait of Hormuz, and this great announcement on Russian Energy, Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST! Lower prices for Americans, especially our Great Farmers, Ranchers, and Truckers, is my Greatest Priority.”  

The timing of Trump’s tweet suggests the call began at about 8:30 pm Moscow time. Ushakov says it lasted 90 minutes. The Kremlin delayed its first statement for almost an hour. Ushakov delayed for another hour.

The Kremlin and Dmitriev omitted to say if Putin’s decision to break the export ban on Russian diesel, in place since July 8, authorizes the release of diesel being held in Russia’s oil company or state strategic reserves. Dmitriev didn’t say if the tonnage for release will be measured in US imperial or metric. He ignored one of the top-secret conditions in Trump’s tweet: “based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel.”

That’s a signal that Putin told Trump to stop the Zelensky regime, with NATO and US intelligence and targeting, from striking at Russian oil refineries, port terminals and oil tankers from now until next year. Trump didn’t quite agree and promise Putin to do that. The Russian General Staff, intelligence agencies, and the Security Council aren’t sure that a Trump ceasefire order will go down the line and be enforced in Kiev.

Dmitriev then tweeted in celebration of the announcement from the US Treasury’s sanctions office (OFAC) of a new “General License 13S” lifting US sanctions on Russian tankers and on China, India, Turkey and other states’ purchasing of Russian crude oil, petroleum products, gas and other commodities “through 12:01 a.m. eastern standard time, January 9, 2027.”  

The OFAC wording doesn’t restrict the sanctions relief to diesel. It omits to specify what Russian exports are covered by “such transactions are ordinarily incident and necessary to the day-to-day operations in the Russian Federation of such U.S. persons or entities.”  Dry cargoes, like Russian coal for Turkey and grain for Egypt, which are being hit by the US-NATO-Ukrainian drone campaign on the Black Sea, appear to be covered by the new Trump scheme – if the Ukrainian drone targeting is also covered.

Dmitriev added his celebration tweet: “BREAKING: New York Harbor wholesale diesel fell approximately 4.5% following the diesel supply agreement between Presidents Putin and Trump. The power of working together to stabilize markets and benefit the people.”  This was misleading. US diesel prices had been falling for two weeks before Friday’s telephone call; the futures market reaction to the call was less than 3% on the day (see table and charts below).

Were the terms of Putin’s deal with Trump kept secret from the Rusian Security Council? Were  the slowness of Ushakov to provide his read-out, and failure of Putin to brief reporters at the end of his visit to Turkmenistan, signs that there is deep skepticism towards Trump in public and in private?

Following the Security Council session with Putin on October 7, the communiqué was unusually short and secretive: “They discussed topical issues of Russian domestic and foreign policy.”      Soon after the Council’s deputy head, ex-President Dmitry Medvedev, telegrammed defiance of both Americans and Europeans: “There’s no other way: to live with wolves is to howl like one.”  

Putin then flew to Turkmenistan for a summit meeting of the Commonwealth of Independent (CIS) states with Iran.  The diesel deal telephoned with Trump began after the President was back to Moscow. In secret, Dmitriev and Ushakov had been discussing the deal with Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner as they prepared to start talks on Friday morning in Miami with a Ukrainian delegation led by Kirill Budanov.   

Minutes after the Trump tweet and Kremlin statement, Oleg Tsarev, a Ukrainian opposition leader in exile in Crimea, commented on his Telegram account: “Diesel exports are now banned until October 31. The exception is Central Asia and Mongolia. All Russian diesel exports are now 12-14 thousand tons [metric] per day against 100 thousand before drone attacks. Promised to Trump 300 thousand tons is three days of previous exports and less than a day of US consumption. I don’t know where to get diesel for the United States. Perhaps, if there are no  blows to the refinery guaranteed,  we will have surpluses over time. But this process is not a fast one.”  

An hour later, Tsarev added: “Now it turns out that when Zelensky strikes at Russian refineries, he will be hitting directly at Trump’s interests. Do you think Zelensky will stop it? I guess not.”  

Then the Kremlin posted a read-out from Ushakov. The time stamp is 23:55 Moscow time on Friday.  Sixty-five minutes had elapsed since the initial Kremlin statement.

Ushakov revealed that he had begun negotiating the presidential call with Witkoff on Wednesday (October 7), but that it had been postponed until Putin returned to Moscow from Turkmenbashi, the Turkmen capital. According to Ushakov, Trump gave Putin his belated birthday greetings, while Putin responded with “words of gratitude of our President to the First Lady of the United States for her active humanitarian activities and, in particular, for her contribution to the efforts to reunite children with families separated during the Ukrainian conflict.”  

This is a recorded telephone message: Putin and Ushakov have claimed he has said this in telephone conversations with Trump several times over in the past.

On Russian diesel exports to the US, Ushakov said: “I will not be able to satisfy, dear colleagues, your curiosity and reveal in detail the specific issues discussed by the Presidents… The leaders of the two countries discussed the preparations in detail of large-scale economic initiatives, including possible deliveries of Russian oil products to American and global markets. On this account, by the way, special statements were made already by the Presidents of Russia and the United States.”  

Has Trump promised Putin to put a stop to Ukrainian attacks on Russian targets?

Ushakov said: “Donald Trump listened carefully to our argument and said that he would instruct the transmission of the corresponding signals to the Ukrainian delegation that is in Miami these days for contacts with American representatives.”

There is an unusual blackout on the video record of Ushakov’s briefing; no one is visible. Three questions have been recorded from reporters. Asked by a reporter “can you confirm that President Trump has stated the amount of diesel to be provided to the United States?” Ushakov replied: “You know, I read this statement and I read about it ahead of when I told you about the course of this conversation. And what else I can say?  A special statement on this subject was made by the Russian President. It has already been circulated across all the media. And besides, the representatives of our Ministry of Energy also made a statement.”

Ushakov was referring to a statement just issued by Alexander Novak, the deputy prime minister in charge of the energy sector: “We are immediately beginning to lift the restrictions on diesel exports ahead of the scheduled deadlines.”  

 “Can you say whether there were any concessions from the US to Russia and in exchange for what Russia agreed to deliver diesel fuel in the United States?”

 “Yu.Ushakov: You know, the American side, I think will give some clarification on this account additionally.  I have told you what I wanted to say. Before me, our President has clearly expressed what is needed in his special statement.”  

According to Moscow sources in a position to know, Putin is keeping secret what diesel terms have been agreed because they are conditional. The Russians are waiting for Trump to order the Ukrainians to cease attacking the hinterland refineries, port terminals, and tankers at sea.  The delivery schedule Trump has announced isn’t confirmed by the Russians because the shipments will not occur until and unless Trump proves that he can control the drone war.

“There is a Kremlin wager,” one source commented, “and it’s a safe bet for a good Russian profit. If the Trump announcement helps him improve his position in Congress on November 3, he will owe Putin a big favour, and he should press harder on Zelensky, NATO, the  Europeans. And if he doesn’t, or can’t because he loses as badly as predicted on November 3, the Russian diesel export releases proposed for November and December can be stopped immediately. And if there is sanctions relief, they will turn out to be a cheap price to pay, and Russian money to earn, if  the entire scheme stops on January 9, and we go back to war as usual.”

(more…)

by Editor - Friday, October 9th, 2026
No Comments »

By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Not so long ago, godfearing Russians believed that if they saw a coin lying on the footpath, they should step over it and not look back because it would be bad luck to pick it up.

This was not a primitive superstition. It is a rational calculation, my wife Tatiana explained,  advising that I should make it myself.  

The calculation was that if the Power (власть) which had caused the coin to drop from its owner was powerful enough, It might be tempted to prove it by delivering an even richer windfall to the passerby who feigned indifference to the coin, and thus to the power behind it.

Be wary, the Power is jealous and vengeful – that’s the Russian meaning. It demands compliance, not understanding.  

Kirill Dmitriev, the US-trained advisor to President Vladimir Putin on how to drop money money in front of Americans, has convinced Putin that he’s powerful enough to persuade them to pick it up. Tania didn’t think much of Dmitriev — he looked too much like a puffer fish, she thought,  to convince anyone of anything except that, like the fish, he carries a dangerous poison.  

Step over the money, step over Dmitriev – that ought to be the rational calculation.

But since Putin is the power, he can make himself understood directly. And the President does try to explain what he proposes to do and why this is reasonable for Russia’s national interests and security. This is the power asking to be understood, not only by the Russians but also by Russia’s enemies in this war – the Americans, Europeans, British, the other NATO members, and the Japanese.

The problem, Putin also acknowledged last week at the Valdai Club, is that the enemies refuse to understand what he means because, he explained, they are brainwashed or forced into compliance by their ruling classes.  

There’s another problem, Putin added in answering a questioner from India.

The present foreign minister in Delhi, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, is attempting to promote schemes which aren’t those which Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Putin have discussed many times over and agreed on. Modi, not Jaishankar, has “excellent ideas aimed at finding mutually acceptable – I would like to stress ‘mutually’ – solutions. In this sense, the Prime Minister certainly maintains a neutral position while remaining committed to seeing the conflict end.”   

Jaishankar’s promotion of a “peace plan”  with the encouragement of the Europeans, Americans, and the regime in Kiev is a false coin, Putin was saying – step over it and not look back, власть  was advising Modi.

Jaishankar was unabashed, undeterred, hard of hearing. He has kept repeating his plan. So the Kremlin has slapped him down. “No, unlikely,” Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov,  repeated for Jaishankar. “Unlikely for now, although we naturally welcome the efforts of our Indian friends. They concern only a specific aspect of a settlement.”  “[Peace plans] are all on the table, but we have also repeatedly said at various levels that we favour a comprehensive solution rather than a piecemeal one, a solution that would lead to a lasting settlement for many, many years, for decades.”  

In the new podcast with Jamarl Thomas, aired on Thursday morning US Eastern Time, we discuss the desperation measures which both the enemies and also friends like the Indians are resorting to at this stage of the war.

A source in Delhi in a position to know adds that Jaishankar has also been dismissed by the Kiev regime and by Trump officials. “The Americans and Ukrainians have given him their answer. After Modi repeatedly asked [Kiev] for the protection of Indian seafarers, they attacked the oil tanker [the Aframax Rio]  near Sochi   on which all crew was Indian and taking oil to India. And so in the face of very clear positioning, declarations and actions by both the Russians and Ukrainians, it makes no sense for [Jaishankar] except self-promotion. He is after a Peace Prize.”

For detail of the desperation measures of politicians in failing states — President Trump, Chancellor Merz, President Macron, and others — click to view or listen now.  

by Editor - Thursday, October 8th, 2026
No Comments »

By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

When the time of your labour is converted into the profit of the capital which employs you, you belong to the working class. You don’t get time off for vacation. No money.

All Russians know this because it was one of the foundation ideas of the communist party state known as the Soviet Union.  Vacations came at state expense because the state, not private capital, employed everybody, and everybody had the communist right to time off for rest and recreation. To be sure, because the US empire was at war to destroy the Soviet Union, there weren’t too many holiday destinations in that empire which Russians were able to get to – unless they too were state owned, communist managed, beyond US empire control.  Bulgaria, Cuba, East Germany, and India were possible, but for Russians rare.

So the end of the communist party rule in 1991 meant the freedom of the Russian working class to take off for vacation wherever in the world they wanted to go. Only they couldn’t.

The US empire now ruled the Kremlin and its occupant Boris Yeltsin and his men. On cue, they cut the labour value of the Russian working class so they had less cash to spend, fewer traditional Russian sanitoria to welcome them; a great many no longer needed time off because they were terminally ailing or dead. Under Yeltsin the plan of the reformed Russian health system was to reduce working class numbers by cutting the social welfare cost in the strict new deficit-reduction targets of the state budget and Central Bank monetary controls. No spending on defence against the empire.

No American ICE-type or Israeli Gaza-type extermination methods either. It was death for Russians off the books, so to speak.

In 1997, for example, 74% of Russians polled by the Levada Centre said they had no holiday plan away from their homes; 23% said they had a country dacha to go to; 10% were heading to  the beaches of the Russian Caucasus or to another Russian city; just 1% said they would travel to a post-Soviet country; another 1% to the fabled free West.  

President Vladimir Putin’s reforms over the past quarter century have improved the real incomes of this working class, but not by enough to make much difference to the time off for vacation. By 2018, Levada polling reported 66% had no holiday plan; that’s an 8 percentage point improvement on 1997. One percentage point more, 24%, said they were going to the dacha; 8% went to the Caucasus; 4% to the fabled free West. That’s a 3 percentage point gain. Call that social mobility under Putin – some Russians were moving up into the ruling class.

Then the war came in February 2022. Levada stopped polling Russians for their holiday plans. They have been polled instead for the reasons they express for not having a holiday plan: rising fear of unemployment; loss of real income, of consumer spending power and of confidence in the economic future.

The Russian media have turned to tourism, travel and  hotel industry sources to note that since the May start of the Russian holiday season, the escalation of the US empire’s drone war against hinterland targets has changed the travel plans for the minority of workers wanting to vacation in Crimea and along the Black Sea shore of the Caucasus. Disruption and delays of rail, road and air movements, and attacks on beaches, have had a significant deterring effect.

The ruling class, however, has run into the European sanctions war making flight connections into western Europe difficult, visa issuance more unpredictable, and except for Italy, trouble at the border and anti-Russian sentiment inside Europe. This has been an unwelcome reminder to the Russian ruling class that the colour of their money is still red.  “With Europe increasingly out of reach, some Russians are embracing the Kremlin’s pivot to Asia and Africa.”   

These Russians, Izvestia reported at the end of July, have headed to the friendly countries where the risk of war is minimal.  “The demand for accommodation is growing most dynamically in China and Abkhazia — by 71% year-on-year; in Armenia – by 51%;  in Turkey — by 43%;  in Georgia — by 29%;  in Japan — by 12%. Italy stands out among other destinations: the country has risen from twelfth to sixth place in the ranking of the most popular foreign countries, and the demand for accommodation has increased by 69%. In general, the top 10 most popular holiday destinations for the May holidays include Belarus, Uzbekistan, Turkey, Armenia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, China, Thailand, Abkhazia,  and Italy. The average cost of a booked night in foreign hotels and apartments for the holidays is 9.8 thousand rubles, which is 3% lower than last year (10.1 thousand rubles).  

These Russian travellers don’t call themselves the ruling class.

President Vladimir Putin spoke about the ruling class last week in exchanges with foreign academics and think tankers. He believed, he said, that the reason for the war against Russia comes from the ruling classes of the US, Europe, and Japan. “Faced with adverse economic trends at home, an increasingly precarious position for their ruling political classes, and changing public sentiment, they now seem to be provoking confrontation with Russia and fuelling further crises between Russia and Europe. They are doing so precisely in order to justify preparations for war and to rally as many supporters as possible around themselves, thereby enabling them to remain in power. The logic is very simple. I am convinced that this explains a significant part of the reasoning behind the European countries’ conduct toward the Russian Federation.”  

He was hopeful, he added, that the ruling class of the US can be persuaded to behave differently towards Russia, “particularly under President Trump.”  Putin omitted to say whether he thinks there is a ruling class in Russia.

However, if you follow the vacation trail, you will find there is one – and it points to lack of the confidence which Putin has expressed in Trump and the American ruling class for the future of their own interests.

 They have stopped buying second, vacation, or haven homes in the US, according to recently released survey data. “Cyprus and Greece have moved up to fourth and fifth place in the ranking of popular destinations among Russians for buying real estate, based on the results for January–September 2026, RIA Novosti reported, citing Mikhail Bulanov, managing partner at Tranio. Thailand remained the leader, but its share decreased from 22.9% to 17.8% of applications. Turkey retained second place (an increase from 8.4% to 10.2%), and the UAE came in third (from 8.3% to 9.8%). Cyprus rose from sixth place to fourth (from 5.4% to 8.1%), Greece to fifth (from 5.4% to 7.3%).”

“Cyprus and Greece have increased in the ranking due to visa opportunities: in them, the purchase of housing is combined with the registration of residential status — the golden visa of Greece is issued together with the second passport, permanent residence of Cyprus — through the purchase of new housing starting from 300,000 euros, Bulanov said. Georgia entered the ranking, taking sixth place along with Montenegro. Next are France, Spain, and Italy. The island of Bali has dropped out of the top 10 — buyers are put off by problems with building permits and land status. Earlier, DP reported that foreigners in Bali are not allowed to own land on a freehold basis. Only long‑term leases or usage rights registered in the state register for a period of up to 25–30 years, with subsequent extensions, are permitted. At the same time, over the past two years, the island’s authorities have stepped up inspections and have begun to close down and demolish buildings constructed with violations.”

“The median budget for purchasing real estate abroad increased by 9.5% year‑on‑year — to 298,000 euros. In 2025, Thailand was pulling the budget down, with condominiums costing 120,000–150,000 euros, while in 2026 the share of Turkey, the UAE and Cyprus grew — where the typical budget is 300,000–350,000 euros. In Cyprus, rising prices are driven by the expectation of joining Schengen and the discussed tightening of the conditions for the permanent residence investment programme. As reported by DP, Russians have maintained their leading position among foreigners in terms of purchasing housing in Turkey. In August 2026, they purchased 343 apartments and houses there, holding the top spot since April 2022 — for the 53rd consecutive month.”    

On his birthday this week, October 7, the President didn’t celebrate with a holiday at the beach. He stayed at home in the Kremlin where he held a meeting with the Security Council to discuss “current matters pertaining to Russia’s domestic and foreign policy.”

(more…)

by Editor - Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
No Comments »

By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

There is nothing phoney about this stage of the permanent war against Russia, Iran, China, and Cuba, not if you are under the US empire’s guns at the front, in the rear, or on the high seas.

At this stage there is good news to report, and also some not so good news.

There is also a question the General Staff has for President Vladimir Putin. Theirs is a quiet conversation. The substance of it, however, is publicized in the editorials of the western media this week.  They are saying that none of Putin’s nuclear war threats is credible, even as they insist that for the planning, operational and strategic purpose of responding to those threats, they are militarizing their economies and mobilizing their forces at a price of up to 5% of their Gross Domestic Products.  

To them,  Putin is replying that he isn’t threatening anyone and Russia is not intending to escalate to the next stage of the war.

“The word ‘escalation’ is often used now to describe and forecast various global conflicts, meaning unwillingness to use real diplomacy based on reality and respect for the interests of all sides, a desire to aggravate the situation, raise the stakes and even bluff, crossing red lines in the hope of suppressing and intimidating the opponent, and breaking their will. There is nothing new in the escalation of hostilities and sanctions; this practice has been used in many conflicts, and it is never unilateral, because one side’s provocations inevitably trigger a response from the other side. Therefore, the spiral is tightening, and the devastating consequences are growing…The more uncompromising a response, and the more clearly the goal of the opponent’s ‘strategic defeat’ is declared, the greater the chances that the battle will escalate into the most violent phase. The survival of the fittest applies not only to the natural world but also to social communities, if they are faced with the possible loss of their independence, dignity and the very right to exist.”  

This is what Putin said aloud last week. Quietly, behind the Kremlin Wall, the General Staff has asked: What will be our strategic victory?

The General Staff is saying to the Commander in Chief: Look, we are achieving our tactical battlefield objectives on the front of the Ukrainian battlefield, and also our operational objectives in the west and south of the Ukraine – from Kiev to Lvov and the Polish border, as well as Odessa and the Black Sea ports.  However, our intelligence reports indicate we are still quite far from achieving our strategic end-of-war objectives – demilitarizing Ukraine so that Russia will be secure from drone and missile attack in the future; and denazifying the Ukrainian regime in Kiev so that it will not remain the fascist gun platform against Russia which it has been for more than a hundred years.

Between asking the question inside the Kremlin and answering it in fire orders to the command-and-control line, there is a pause for reflection, debate, decision, change of mind, more pause (aka temporizing, vacillation, equivocation, indecision, dithering, shilly-shallying).  

“How can we counter an aggressor?” Putin said aloud on October 1.   “We are not threatening anyone. We are simply stating that we do not have all that many means of defending ourselves. And, incidentally, neither that letter nor the Foreign Ministry’s statement mentions the use of nuclear weapons. They speak, as I have just put it, of employing all the forces and means available to our country. As for how that would actually happen, we will decide that ourselves…We are not threatening anyone. We have no intention of attacking anyone, whether in 2029, 2030 or 2050…Who needs this? No one needs it. But this, too, is one of the elements of aggressive behaviour towards Russia. It must stop. We do not do this; we do not attack anyone; we do not seize anyone’s ships. It must stop.”

Must stop is a strategic imperative for Russia.

How now?

That is the question of today’s podcast with Nima Alkhorshid, aired at afternoon tea time in Moscow, breakfast time in Washington, DC.

(more…)

by Editor - Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
No Comments »

By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

In the memory of nations, a very special curse is reserved for the ruler who wanted peace not war;   but was trapped by his enemies, not only into fighting on his enemies’ terms and timetable, but also into losing the war, and then losing the verdict of history of who was to blame for warmongering in the first place.

Wilhelm (lead image, left) – in 1914 the German Kaiser’s son, his successor as Crown Prince, and the loser of the war, his inheritance, and the throne – wrote in 1922, when it was all over for him, his father,  and for Germany: “They”, meaning the British, French, Russians, “paid us the compliment of believing in our belligerence rather than in our incompetence.”

He was admitting, ironically but also ruefully, that after the Allied victory in World War I,  it didn’t matter that pre-war German belligerence had been a lie, repeated over and over by the Allied leaders and in their media, especially by that arch-liar Winston Churchill,  who loved war when it advanced his political power and fortune, as it almost always did.

In capitulation, Wilhelm was also conceding that he and his father would forever appear to have been to blame for their incompetence.

President Vladimir Putin had something similar to say about the war that has been forced on him and on Russia by the US, the British and French again, the Germans again – all of Europe.

In a finger he pointed at Mikhail Gorbachev, Putin said: “I would also like to highlight a certain naivety, idealism, or perhaps even complacency on the part of those who stood at the helm of the state during the final years of the Soviet era. Blind trust in Western partners and confidence in “gentlemen’s agreements,” when they thought they could simply take someone at their word and come to terms also played a cruel joke on the Soviet Union.”

Putin’s not going to fall for that joke, he emphasized. He was hinting that as he meant Gorbachev, his Russian listeners have all understood his references to Russians’ blind trust in US and NATO to mean Boris Yeltsin.

 “The Soviet leaders wanted the West to like them, while Western leaders sought to reshape the world to suit their needs and to grab their share – preferably a large one – of the Soviet legacy. We can see the result now…Short-sightedness, narrow and unrealistic ideological dogmas instead of pragmatism, incompetence, and the practice of sweeping obvious problems under the carpet gradually exacerbated and undermined the Soviet Union’s domestic and international standing. Ultimately, these factors led to its collapse.”  

Putin is implying that he himself never wanted Western leaders to like him. Or that if he once fell into that trap, he has now recognized the error of his way, and pulled himself out.

Fighting the war of the US and European states now, according to Putin, doesn’t mean falling into the traps they are setting with propaganda of Putin’s belligerence, provocations to draw him into battlefield traps. “We are not trying to scare anyone. What you have just mentioned – the Foreign Ministry’s statement and the letters it sent to certain countries – is not intimidation; it is a response to attempts to intimidate us. After all, it is not us who are making these statements about the need, possibility, or preparation for a war with Russia in 2029 or 2030. These statements come from Western and European politicians. We hear them constantly. Constantly. And then there are concrete actions: one exercise after another in the Baltic Sea, followed by attempts to detain our ships and vessels. All of this constitutes escalation, as I said in my remarks. All this is escalation.”

“If it comes to a direct attack on the Russian Federation – in this case, Kaliningrad, although it could potentially involve other territories as well – the question of Russia using all the weapons at its disposal would inevitably and immediately arise. That is inevitable…we understand that we would be facing an adversary with twice our population. It has immense economic and military potential. Yes, we would not have a vast array of forces and means at our disposal to counter such a threat. We would have to rely on our competitive advantages in this struggle. And what are they? The fact is that we possess such advantages in the means we have to defend ourselves. Yes, of course, France and the UK are nuclear powers. We understand that perfectly well and are fully aware of it. But no one else possesses the kinds of strike capabilities that Russia has today. And these are our competitive advantages…incidentally, neither that letter nor the Foreign Ministry’s statement mentions the use of nuclear weapons. They speak, as I have just put it, of employing all the forces and means available to our country. As for how that would actually happen, we will decide that ourselves.”  

The response from the allies to Putin is to keep insisting on his belligerence, and also to dismiss what he says as incompetent. The obvious contradictions between the two don’t matter, because as the German Crown Prince had learned, the truth doesn’t matter. Striking first, winning the war at the end does.*

So what can that end-of-war be today when the war against Russia in Europe is a world war against Russia on all its fronts, and so a war against Iran and China, and against them all on the high seas and in the movement of money.  

“Putin’s nuclear threats no longer work”, headlined the editorial of the Financial Times yesterday.  “The waning of the deterrent power of the Russian nuclear arsenal has, over time, made Ukraine’s western allies much less cautious about the kinds of weapons they are prepared to provide to Kyiv. Tanks, fighter planes and long-range missiles to fire at targets inside Russia — all once off the menu — have now all been supplied…The failure of nuclear deterrence is a particular setback for Russia. The possession of the world’s largest nuclear arsenal is one of the country’s only remaining claims to superpower status. Building and maintaining its stockpile is also enormously expensive. Russian pundits continue to fulminate and fantasise about nuclear strikes on Europe — presumably with the Kremlin’s encouragement. But these outbursts no longer make news in Europe.”  

Down the street in London, the Guardian  has also editorialized on why Putin’s warfighting rhetoric is incompetent. “Putin might nevertheless calculate that a massive bombing operation this winter that turns off the lights, disrupts heating and damages waterworks and sanitation systems will break Ukrainians’ willpower, creating conditions for Russia to conclude the war with additional territory in hand…Still, the Russian leader’s strategy collides with some inconvenient facts, quite apart from Ukrainians’ proven toughness. The historical record shows that bombing campaigns don’t crush morale; they strengthen it. Ukrainians won’t be the exception. They regard resistance to Russia as essential for national survival.”

(more…)

by Editor - Monday, October 5th, 2026
No Comments »