By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with
The scheme which Kirill Dmitriev (lead image centre), the Kremlin’s negotiator for American money-making schemes, has been planning with Steven Witkoff and Jared Kushner for Russian diesel to be traded to the US, relieved of sanctions, in exchange for US delivery of Vladimir Zelinsky’s agreement to Russian end-of-war terms, has failed.
No Russian diesel has been reported by international ship tracking sources as leaving a Russian port or redirecting from a high seas position to a US port fixed as its destination. The New York Harbour marker for the price of diesel for future delivery has now (October 13) risen 3% since October 9, before Witkoff and Kushner announced it to Ukrainian officials and President Vladimir Putin discussed it with President Donald Trump (lead image, left and right). Trump followed with the announcement of Russian shipments of “over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace [in October], another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter. Additionally, based on the condition of their Diesel Refineries, Russia will then deliver, within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel.”
Putin had agreed, according to a Kremlin statement, to “willingness to supply oil and petroleum products to the American and global markets. I [Putin] am sure that this will have a positive impact on the entire global economy.” Yury Ushakov, Putin’s foreign affairs adviser, said he and Trump had “discussed the preparations in detail of large-scale economic initiatives, including possible deliveries of Russian oil products to American and global markets.”
Between Putin’s lip and Trump’s cup, there has been a slip. Putin’s “willingness” for “possible deliveries of Russian oil products” was conditional on Trump’s power to enforce end-of-war terms. The diesel market now sees Trump defaulting.
The latest US voter polls are marking Trump’s performance on the Russia-Ukraine war as no better than voters recorded before last Friday’s telephone call; his performance on fuel price inflation as worse.
In Moscow, Vzglyad, the Kremlin-backed security policy platform, asked the rhetorical question and then celebrated Russian cleverness in the answer: “Skeptics are now asking: who are we doing this for? After everything that’s happened between us, wouldn’t it be more logical to gloat while watching the American market teetering? Wouldn’t it be wiser to finish it off for all the harm it has caused us and the world? After all, the United States is reaping exactly what it sowed. Everyone remembers who attacked Iran and who turned the comedian into a monster… We’re saving Donald Trump. But we try only for our own sake… Not helping Trump would mean helping the Democrats – the very ones who nurtured Zelensky. However, it would be more accurate to assume that we are not helping anyone except ourselves and are simply toting up our own benefits from the deal… Now the Europeans are buying diesel from America, and America, having betrayed its so‑called allies, is buying from whomever it wants. A miser pays twice, a fool pays thrice, and the European Union — until the money runs out.”
In desperation, Dmitriev tweeted in blame for “the UK’s leftist government’s desire for ‘forever war in Ukraine’ to distract from its destruction of the British way of life.” In Dmitriev’s wordbook, “leftist” is the same as Trump’s “communist”; they are synonyms for the same hatred of Russia’s independence as has ideologized the permanent war against Russia for more than a century now by the US, UK, Hitler’s Germany, Mussolini’s Italy, and the Empire of the Rising Sun.
Dmitriev and his deal are now being buried alive by Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and by Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
“Over long, recent months,” Lavrov has said, “the mantra of ‘ceasefire” has replaced the mantra of ‘inflicting a strategic defeat on Russia’ in the rhetoric of both Vladimir Zelensky and his Western masters. There is just one aim, and it is very simple – to buy time and gain a respite…I do not think we will once again be taken in by assurances and promises. President Vladimir Putin was very clear about this: we are continuing to pursue the objectives of the special military operation. Everyone knows perfectly well what they are. We have never changed them, unlike the vacillations and twists and turns of Vladimir Zelensky and his European masters. So, we have nothing to excuse ourselves for to anyone.”
Peskov announced there is no deal. “Communication is ongoing. As soon as we have something to say on the issue, we will certainly inform you…The Kremlin has said repeatedly, and President Putin has said so as well, along with officials at other levels: we want lasting peace, not a ceasefire, and we are ready to do everything possible to achieve it.”
There will be no meeting in Moscow this week, as Trump had proposed, between Putin, Dmitriev, Ushakov, Witkoff and Kushner. “Moscow welcomes the work of American negotiators on a peaceful settlement in Ukraine: We are much more impressed by the efforts of American negotiators. We are grateful to them for pursuing those efforts.” On October 13, Peskov repeated: “We discussed this issue yesterday, and for now I have nothing to add to what we said then. Contacts on this matter are continuing… There is no connection between the diesel agreement with the United States and Russia’s position on Ukraine; rather, it is a mutually beneficial example of Russian-US cooperation. I don’t see any connection here. In fact, it is an example of Russia-US cooperation that benefits both parties a lot.” He means there is nothing to negotiate, not yet.
The Foreign Ministry has defended Putin for following Dmitriev. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told reporters it is wrong to make “the assumption that Moscow made any concessions on the issue of the Ukrainian settlement, agreeing to a diesel deal with the United States. ‘No, I would not assess the agreement reached on a farfetched principle [в огороде бузина, а в Киеве – дядька – an elderberry in the garden for an uncle in Kiev]. This is not about that… The unprecedented, completely unique result of the presidents’ telephone conversation held two days ago, has stunned many in the ‘party of war’, and this party is numerous. We have always spoken and are in favour of a political solution, if the other side is not ready for it, the goals will be achieved militarily, and the negotiating position from this opposite side will weaken…The sooner they realize this, the better. I think the so-called diesel deal works hard to encourage those who have not yet understood it.”
Referring to negotiations between his ministry and the State Department on US seizures of Russian diplomatic property in the US, Ryabkov added there has been “no movement on the main issues which the United States has made dependent on progress in the Ukrainian settlement.”
Finance Minister Anton Siluanov is also defensive. He told the press in a separate interview that “our companies will get the opportunity to export diesel and receive revenue and currency for it; this is important for our balance of payments, and above all, of course, for the companies. No, we do not have export duties on diesel. But this will be taken into account in companies’ financial results, and they will accordingly pay taxes into the budget system.”
For detailed analysis and discussion with Nima Alkhorshid, click to listen or view the new Dialogue Works podcast, which was aired live at midnight on Tuesday, Moscow time: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I39CvRjWBcg
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