By John Helmer, Moscow
A new Ukrainian opinion poll of voter intentions – measured across the country between January 17 and 26, and just released — explains why the Ukrainian opposition, the US, and the European Union (EU) have dropped their demand for the release from prison of Yulia Tymoshenko. For the background to that story, read yesterday’s report.
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By John Helmer, Moscow
Not since the British started the Δεκεμβριανά in Greece in 1944, and not unless you count Na Trioblóidí in Northern Ireland until 1998, has the possibility of civil war in civilized Europe loomed so gravely. No wonder the mailbox is brimful of questions, for which there are no obvious answers.
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By John Helmer, Moscow
A UK High Court ruling on Friday has struck a surprise blow against Ukrainian pipemaker Victor Pinchuk (image), as he fights to stave off bankruptcy claims from international Eurobond holders, international and Russian banks, and Ukrainian suppliers. The timing could not be worse for the Ukrainian, who has been paying Bill and Hillary Clinton, Tony Blair, and a group of European politicians to back him in the current Ukrainian political crisis.
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By John Helmer, Moscow
The South African Government has pulled back from the agreement it reached last November with Rosatom, the state nuclear industry corporation, to build nuclear reactors to supply South Africa’s future power needs. Officials at the South African Department of Energy refuse to say to what the Minister of Energy, Ben Martins, has decided. Off the record, sources in Pretoria, Johannesburg and Moscow claim the reason for dropping the $50 billion deal is that the government has revised its assessment of its future energy needs, and decided it doesn’t need the new reactors, at least not soon.
But that’s a nose-stretcher. The assessment leading to the change of mind in Pretoria was issued by the Department of Energy on November 21. For weeks beforehand its conclusions were well-known to the ministry, Minister Martins, and to the office of President Jacob Zuma (image above), when he approved the initialling of the Rosatom deal. The deal ceremony took place on November 26, five days after the Energy Ministry had issued its thumbs-down.
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By John Helmer, Moscow
When the last war with Germany was ending, the British intelligence services rounded up as many of their German counterparts as they could find, and interrogated them. They were taken by surprise, as a series of reports by Hugh Trevor-Roper, then a signals intelligence analyst, uncovered as early as 1944.* For the British, the surprise was that neither German military intelligence (Abwehr) nor the SS intelligence organization (Sicherheitsdienst) had the doctrine or the resources for strategic deception: that’s the capacity to mask from your opponent what your plans are, and thereby fool your target into positioning himself for defeat. By the standards of British deceit, as British historians and thriller writers have proclaimed ever since, the Germans were naïve – exposing a colossal Achilles heel to be exploited just because it was always possible to persuade them to put their Achilles foot into a trap.
Predictability and naivety aren’t recommended for war-fighting — nor just for Germans, and not just then. The British intelligence services’ reports on the Russian capacity for deception remain top secret. But what the British believed was once their own superiority in deception tactics, they have now dispensed with, or lost. So when it comes to waging the Anglo-American war against Russia, there’s been no disguise for the Achilles Heels on display in the war for Chechnya or in the Georgian War of August 2008 – both of them lost by the Anglo-American side.
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By John Helmer, Moscow
Oleg Deripaska has never agreed to settle before judgement in international litigations against him, or against his management of United Company Rusal, unless Deripaska was certain his opponents held a winning hand. When Rusal announced last week that it has settled a London arbitration with Rusal shareholders, Victor Vekselberg and Len Blavatnik, what had happened was a big loss which Rusal’s public shareholders failed to anticipate – with the case still to run against Deripaska personally. That’s the mirror part.
The smoke part has been the failure of market reporting in Moscow and elsewhere to notice the significance of Vekselberg’s and Blavatnik’s victory, and the compensation Deripaska has undertaken, along with Glencore. It was Glencore’s contract for trading Rusal’s aluminium, which was the cause of action that Rusal has now settled.
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By John Helmer, Moscow
Theologians may wrestle to Kingdom Come before they will agree that a gusher of faith can be drilled out of a bedrock of reason. In the case of junior Russian oil companies taking money from investors on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), the gushers are proving to be short-lived. The loss of faith can be measured in the collapse of share price and market capitalization – and in the files of Mirabaud Securities, the Swiss promoter of a great deal of short-lived enthusiasm.
Timan Oil and Gas, for example, failed to produce what it promised from prospects in the Arctic region of Timan Pechora; defaulted on its loans; delisted its shares; and is now in liquidation. Ruspetro, operating in the Khanty-Mansiysk region of western Siberia, listed its shares at the start of 2012, but in two years they have collapsed to a tenth of their peak value. Mirabaud was a lead manager for both issues.
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By John Helmer, Moscow
The Kremlin has yet to agree to a Ukrainian application for the resumption of duty-free quotas for steel pipe imports to Russia. In December, Ukrainian Industry Minister Mykhaylo Korolenko told Bloomberg that there had been an agreement with the Kremlin to reinstate the quotas which were cancelled on July 1 and a penalty duty of 19% introduced instead. In effect, this killed the Ukrainian trade.
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By John Helmer, Moscow
The dickhead question is not which direction the dick is pointing in, but whether it’s connected to the brain. The heart being an automatic organ, it’s the brain which must obey the rules of informed consent and their corollary, the age of consent. Among the ancient Greeks, who celebrated homosexuality more than any culture before or since, these rules were enforced to the point of capital punishment for infringing them.
If you plan on travelling to Sochi with homosex on your mind, and you are having trouble understanding what the French President has been doing with his dick, and what the Russian President says you shouldn’t be doing with yours, you should read the 634-page history of how the ancient Greeks regulated the passions between age-groups.* A second primer by the same author explains what endorsers of Hollande’s conduct today fail to appreciate when they attack Putin’s conduct – this is the ancient Greek concept of dickheadedness. The Greeks called it ἀκολασία (akolasia), meaning intemperance; lack of self-control; the vice of excess when desires are not corrected by reason. This is the key to understanding 135-FZ, the Russian law banning public “propagating non-traditional sexual relations among minors”, enacted by the State Duma, the Federation Council and Putin in June of 2013.
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By John Helmer, Moscow
Interpipe, the heavily indebted Ukrainian pipemaker owned by Victor Pinchuk (left foreground), has defaulted on its pledge to list its Eurobonds on the Luxembourg Stock Exchange by December 27, a notice from Deutsche Bank, the bond trustee, has revealed. This is Pinchuk’s second default in two months. On November 1, Interpipe announced it was unable to pay its international banks $106 million due on at least half a billion dollars in loans.
According to the latest disclosure, Deutsche Bank now has the authority to call for repayment of the face value of the Interpipe bonds plus interest. Interpipe’s last financial report indicates that as of December 31, 2012, the sum owing would be more than $198 million. A repayment call would also trigger repayment demands from Interpipe’s international banks and the Italian export agency SACE. The banks, led by ING of the Netherlands, Commerzbank of Germany, and Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), are owed more than $543 million; SACE, $156 million.
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