By John Helmer in Moscow

In the old days, before artillery fire could be directed with precision, the only way an attacking force could breach a fortified gate or wall was to manually deliver a large package of gunpowder; fix it to the target; light the fuze; and run away. Our word for the modern mortar, and the French word for this medieval device, are related. But the French has a double-meaning, because it also refers to the breaking of human wind.

It was Shakespeare’s Hamlet, who appreciated both, when he dispatches two men he knows to be plotting to kill him with altered letters that will seal their doom, instead of his. As Hamlet expresses the famous thought: “tis sport to have the engineer/Hoist with his own petar.”

In all the meanings Hamlet meant can be found the predicament in which British Petroleum (BP:PZ, LSE; BP:US, NYSE) ) is now hoist in Moscow. What chief executive Tony Hayward and TNK-BP CEO, Robert Dudley, thought was the brilliant stroke of making an alliance with Gazprom, and President Dmitry Medvedev, to rid themselves of three Russian oligarchs, has turned into an embarrassment for Gazprom and the new men in the Kremlin; a boon for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Rosneft; and the one thing BP dislikes most about Mikhail Fridman – a boost to his ability to shake a second fortune out of the pockets of a mark he’s already scored once.
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by John Helmer - Friday, June 27th, 2008
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By John Helmer in Moscow

The share price of Polyus Gold started tumbling on the Moscow exchange even before the votes were counted at today’s Annual General Meeting of shareholders in Moscow. At the Moscow bell, Polyus was down more than 3% on the day to $60 per share.

Since May 21, when the share price spiked on shenanigans already reported, the Polyus price has dropped 25%. There was still time for the London exchange to keep the price tumbling, which it did through the afternoon, dropping more than 6% as this was being written. Almost $4 billion in market capitalization has evaporated in a month; $106 million per day, and that includes weekends.

The results of voting on the new board of directors indicated that Mikhail Prokhorov has retained his own and four other seats. These are to be sat on by chief executive Evgeny Ivanov and Valery Rudakov, beneficiaries of a lucrative and lawful share options scheme reported in Mineweb early this month. In addition, two other sitting directors, Yekaterina Salnikova and Yevgeny Braiko, have been re-elected to positions backing Prokhorov. Prokhorov’s holding Onexim declined to characterize the outcome of the board vote, and spokesman, Igor Petrov, told Mineweb: “We don’t have a position. Please read the Polyus statement.”
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by John Helmer - Thursday, June 26th, 2008
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By John Helmer in Moscow

Russia tries cooling steel prices.

The Russian government has postponed a decision on whether to impose export duties of up to 20% on steel products, despite a flurry of press and brokerage reports claiming the government’s senior industry minister has already promised not to levy new taxes.

A meeting between steelmakers and Deputy Prime Minister Igor Sechin on Saturday last, June 21, did not reach a policy conclusion, both government and industry sources report.

The duty scale proposed by the government may parallel the regime recently adopted by the Indian government — 5% for zinc-galvanized products; 10% for cold-rolled and hot-rolled products; and 15% for semi-fabricated slabs.
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by John Helmer - Wednesday, June 25th, 2008
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By John Helmer in Moscow

Russians out-play Saudis as Gazprom calls for OPEC replacement.

The view from British Petroleum’s front-window on to St. James Square in London is an irony BP Chairman Peter Sutherland and Chief Executive Tony Hayward have not noticed; at least not yet.

In the middle of the gated garden, there is a fine statue of William of Orange, the Dutch champion of Protestantism, who became King William III, and, by reputation, rescued the English from a Roman Catholic dynasty, and all manner of French and popish plots.

William is mounted on a fine horse. The plaque fails to mention that William met his death when he fell from the horse; broke his collar-bone; contracted pneumonia; and promptly expired. Because the horse tossed the king after stumbling in a mole’s burrow, William’s enemies used to toast “the little gentleman in the black velvet waistcoat”.
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by John Helmer - Wednesday, June 25th, 2008
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By John Helmer in Moscow

Reported Russian billions for Zambian copper are flash in the pan.

The prospect of several billion dollars in Russian mining investment in southern Africa cannot fail to be alluring.

But an announcement by a single newspaper in Moscow last week that three major Russian mining companies “hope to announce a major investment worth more than $2 billion in Zambia next month” triggered the reaction from miners and investment advisors alike that it’s a mirage. According to one well-known SA mining advisor, “it sounds like an unlikely story to me. Russians never actually invest their money into Africa, and especially not into Zambia.”

He claims that a major Euro-Russian ferrochrome acquisition from Samancor in SA was financed internally by SA banks and cashflow from the project itself.
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by John Helmer - Tuesday, June 24th, 2008
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By John Helmer in Moscow

Rusal seeks four seats on the Norilsk Nickel board.

Capt. W.E. Johns, the favourite novelist of English schoolboys, wrote 104 books about Biggles – Flight Captain James Bigglesworth, a World War I air ace. The boys’ demand for his adventures was so great, Johns had to press him back into service against the Luftwaffe in World War II.

Johns and his Biggles series are publicly celebrated for many things, but not the most important. Through hundreds of dogfights in the air, and adventures on the ground, Johns illustrated a maxim he didn’t coin – wickedness has character, cleverness none. The German Erich von Stalhein is vicious, since he’s always after Biggles’ blood. But since he also always manages to fail, his vices never materialize beyond the leer on his lips. He doesn’t even get worse when he becomes a Nazi.

Biggles, on the other hand, is clever to the point of genius, but internally blank, externally unlovable. Not even an affair with a beautiful French woman, whom Biggles meets after landing lost (a true story about Capt Johns, it turns out), generates a scintilla of sympathy for the mechanics of successful cause and effect.
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by John Helmer - Wednesday, June 18th, 2008
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By John Helmer in Moscow

MOSCOW – The spear points of the fence that guards the Royal Courts of Justice, off Fleet Street in London, haven’t been used to display the severed heads of criminals for half a millennium. They remain sharp, and deterring, nonetheless. Inside, and upstairs to the left, the swinging oak doors of Courtroom 4 are also deterring, if you are the Tajikistan Aluminum Plant, the biggest-spending plaintiff in recent English legal history.

It is in this courtroom that the fates of the smelter owners, the rulers of far-off Tajikistan, are being decided. On June 10, in a hearing before High Court Justice Tomlinson, English lawyers argued over whether Hassan Saduloev (also spelled Sadullaev in Russian, Asadullozoda in Tajik) the second man in Tajikistan, brother-in-law to President Emomali Rahmon, and a key witness in the London court case, is alive or dead. Reports that he had been shot were published last month.

Saduloev is required to testify in court, and if he is dead he cannot. If he is alive, he must. If he is in hiding, he may be cited for contempt of court, and the case may be dismissed by the judge.
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by John Helmer - Wednesday, June 18th, 2008
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By John Helmer in Moscow

Russian specialty steelmaker spins off coal-mining and ferroalloy units to add value, deter asset attack.

A series of new executive appointments, announced this week by Mechel, suggests that the group’s controlling shareholder, Igor Zyuzin, is preparing for the possible, much rumoured sale of the Mechel steel division to the state-owned RusSpetsStal (“Russian Special Steel”, RSS) group.

What isn’t clear yet is whether Zyuzin’s new structure is meant to repel, or absorb, an attack. This structure, comprising separate steel, mining, ferroalloy, and other divisions, is interpreted by some industry sources as a defense against a takeover. Others view it as making Mechel’s steel assets cheaper for a state steelmaking company to acquire, and easier for Zyuzin to let go.

There is no explanation from the company as to why the group’s coal and iron-ore mines are located in the mining spinoff, while chromium and nickel mines are in the ferroalloy unit; nor why transportation and electricity supply have been prized apart from steelmaking, the original function of Mechel, Russia’s fifth ranked steelmaker.
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by John Helmer - Tuesday, June 17th, 2008
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By John Helmer in Moscow

Russian largest silver and third largest gold miner, Polymetal, goes back to Nesis family.

Suleiman Kerimov finally did what he was always expected to do with Polymetal, Russia’s principal silver miner — he has sold out.

The move was confirmed in a Monday morning press release from one of the buyers, the ICT group belonging to former Polymetal owner Alexander Nesis. He has acquired a 24% shareholding. The sale to a consortium, which also includes Moscow investor Alexander Mamut (19%), and the PPF group of Prague (25%), also indicates that, in Kerimov’s judgement, Russian gold and silver miner valuations have reached their peak for the foreseeable future.

The ICT announcement says no price or valuation will be disclosed in their transaction. ICT says only that it is buying a 24% stake in Polymetal from Kerimov’s aggregate holding of 69%. The ICT press release also quotes Nikolai Dobrinov, a partner of Nesis, as hinting that Kerimov may have been obliged to accept less than he once thought his stake was worth.
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by John Helmer - Monday, June 16th, 2008
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By John Helmer in Moscow

China is a power behind global commodity flows as well as prices. But Beijing has been slow to understand that it is the horse that pulls the cart; the whip hand belongs to the coachman.

Chinese negotiators have already made one colossal mistake in pricing their supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG). They are making a second in trying to draw out of Russia a discount for natural gas. For China to insist on tying Gazprom down to the extraction cost of Siberian gas – at a fraction of the price Gazprom sells its gas to Western Europe – is producing an impasse in current negotiations and slowing down Russia’s readiness to invest in the pipeline systems, on which Chinese calculations depend.

President Dmitry Medvedev visited China last month. Ahead of the visit, he was reported as cautioning that Russian plans to export natural gas to China were under way, but that “technological details are still being discussed” and “negotiations were ongoing to finalize the price formula of Russian gas supplies to Chinese consumers”.
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by John Helmer - Friday, June 13th, 2008
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