

by John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with
There have been many revolutions in the technology and the geography of global cargo transportation. The Portuguese design of caravels to cross the Atlantic and Indian Oceans from the 15th century; the replacement of wind with coal-fired steam in the shipping of the British empire which followed; and the invention of the petroleum engine for automobiles and aircraft to replace horse and bullock-drawn road carts – these are well known.
The time taken for each revolution from invention to full-capacity operation was not less than one generation.
The geographic switch of Russia’s export and import trade from west to east, and also from north to south – this too is a revolution in cargo logistics; its scale, speed, and money cost have not been rivaled before. In Russian terms, it is faster than Joseph Stalin’s Five-Year schemes of industrialization from 1928 to 1942, and has not required force for implementation nor inflicted Stalin’s human casualties. For speed over time, the current Russian logistics revolution will take five years.
It remains to be seen whether in requiring vast state spending and direct management this new Russian revolution will turn out to be the second nail in the coffin of the oligarch system created by Boris Yeltsin and preserved by Vladimir Putin (lead image). The first nail has been the US and NATO sanctions: they have cut the Russian oligarchs off from the international flow of funds they had designed to move their capital out of Russia, and keep it offshore, untaxed.
President Putin’s peacetime scheme of deoffshoreization not only failed in returning the oligarchs’ capital, as the archive demonstrates. It was designed to fail by the legal loopholes which the Kremlin authorized, and by the capital decontrols managed by Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina and her patron Alexei Kudrin, Putin’s longtime appointees.
The transportation revolution now under way was not intended by those oligarchs who have controlled parts of the transportation system, including sea ports, airports, cargo terminals, rail rolling stock and networks, pipelines, road construction, truck and car manufacture, and the like. The story of the failure of the oligarchs to capture state shipping, despite Putin’s encouragement, isn’t yet recognized for the bellwether it is today, after the sanctions war has intensified. Read the book.
The big picture of Russian cargo shift is plain to view. Less obvious are the bottlenecks in the transportation network, such as the rail lines and ports, and the fierce competition for access to the means of loading, unloading, and movement of cargo across Russia from one market to another. For every cargo bottleneck, the state is now obliged to decide between competing interests and to plan, then produce, the increased carrying capacities required for the lines moving east and south instead of west and north.
In this newly published analysis of the bottleneck of containers, InfraNews, a leading Russian publication on all forms of transportation, reports what is happening and what is needed to solve the problems of container supply and demand in the short and long term. Note the tone of optimism that solutions will be found shortly, and the lack of political or economic ideology – liberal, corporatist, statist, communist — on how this will be managed.
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