by John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with
This is not the comedy of the two Odessa conmen who travel across the Soviet Union trying to find a cache of jewellery hidden in twelve chairs, written in 1928. In the end, one murders the other, and then when he discovers the treasure has already been found and spent, he goes mad.
This is President Donald Trump’s comedy of the three chairs which were reduced to two so that, in St. Peter’s Basilica in Rome, Trump could sit on one and Vladimir Zelensky on the other. Trump’s plan, however, was that no one should laugh at his con. Murder and madness may still materialize.
Yesterday, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was sent to explain that at the funeral of Pope Francis, Trump wanted the cameras to record him as the peacemaker of the world. “We want the war to end,” Rubio told a Sunday television show. “You saw yesterday at the Pope’s mass there was talk about war and how it needed to stop. The Pope – the late Pope was celebrated for being a peacemaker and trying to talk about these things. We should all be happy that we have a president of the United States in Donald J. Trump who wants to end and prevent wars, and that’s what we’re trying to do here.”
The comedy of four men – Trump, Zelensky, President Emmanuel Macron, Prime Minister Keir Starmer — competing for just two chairs in front of dozens of cameras for millions of viewers says otherwise. It reveals that between end-of-war on Russia’s terms and peace on their terms, they don’t know what President Vladimir Putin will agree to.
Follow what happened on Saturday between the ceremony of respects at the Pope’s catafalque inside St. Peter’s Basilica and the funeral ceremony outside in St. Peter’s Square in this video analysis by Jesús Enrique Rosas, the “body language guy”. Ignore his analysis of the body language, and follow the movements of Trump and Zelensky who enter together. They are approached from different directions by Macron and Starmer, but are brushed aside by Trump who directs that the third chair should be removed. The entire sequence took just over fifteen minutes.
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UWddiYK8_uc For a contrasting interpretation by a body language expert quoted by a London newspaper, read this.
Trump’s media staff began their tweet transmission of the obsequies with their priority, the two-chair sit-down, at 12:13 local time. There was no time for Trump himself to add a text. The staff then followed with six more pictures at St. Peter’s, two at the funeral, three at the catafalque, and one new picture of Trump with Zelensky. This was published after fifteen minutes at 12:28. It was a White House correction because the first picture had shown Trump from behind, his head and Zelensky’s at the same level, and Zelensky doing the talking. In the new picture, Trump was in full profile looking down at Zelensky, Trump on his toes, Zelensky flat-footed.
Dominance was the theme; most US and international media published this photograph. After he had left the funeral and was flying back to Washington, Trump issued a string of personal text tweets with the same theme, starting with a threat to take over both the Suez and Panama Canals unless Egypt and Panama allow US-flag vessels to make the transit without paying the tolls. “American Ships, both Military and Commercial, should be allowed to travel, free of charge, through the Panama and Suez Canals! Those Canals would not exist without the United States of America.” (For the truth of the Suez history, read this. )
In retrospect, the evidence of the US, French and British state media is that the conversation inside St. Peter’s was contrived by the four men as a photo opportunity to display their importance in “peace negotiations” and their “accord”. The third chair, and then its hasty removal, reveal there was no intention on Trump’s part for Starmer and Macron to sit down with Zelensky.
Starmer corrected Trump’s ploy by adding a picture in which he is the centre of the St. Peter’s group, and then arranging his own 35 minutes with Zelensky after the funeral — and after Trump was in his aeroplane, enroute home.
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cddep0j45zno
“Before the service, Sir Keir, US President Donald Trump, Ukraine’s Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron were pictured speaking in a huddle [sic] inside St Peter’s Basilica,” the state propaganda agency BBC reported. “Sir Keir and Zelensky ‘discussed positive progress made in recent days to secure a just and lasting peace in Ukraine’, a Downing Street spokesperson said. ‘They agreed to maintain momentum and continue working intensively with international partners to drive forward the next stages of planning.’ It is understood [sic] they had a 15-minute one-to-one meeting as they walked around the gardens of the Ambassador’s residence after the Pope’s funeral. Their delegations then had a further meeting lasting around 20 mins.”
Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cddep0j45zno
In Paris, the staff on duty at the Elysée published a single tweet photograph, ignoring Trump’s display. The French state media repeated the “huddle” picture in coverage which emphasized the funeral over the politics. The Elysée press office added a three-word caption: “Pour la paix.”
Source: https://x.com/Elysee/status/1916130383323926726
In Rome, however, Macron’s personal staff published a walk-in-the-garden tweet aping Starmer.
Source: https://x.com/
The compilation of these video records shows it was Trump’s staff which had controlled the setting of the chairs in the Basilica, the timing of the conversation, and the resulting photo images. Starmer and Macron have followed, playing catch-up.
A NATO veteran comments: “Trump is doing two things here. He’s showing first that he has no peer among the Europeans — Macron using Trump as a preening tool at every opportunity gets on the latter’s nerves. Second, he’s appearing to be attentive to Zelensky before taking the position vis-à-vis Russia he’s already made up his mind to take. His legs are locked sideways against the chair legs because he’s impatient with the show he has to put on. He was not interested in interacting with Zelensky, and he didn’t.”
A pro-Starmer body language expert, engaged by the London Daily Mail, claimed: “‘When [Trump and Zelensky] fell out in the Oval Office there was a physical response of aggressive arousal with Trump in particular looking keen to register physical dominance,’ James assessed. But today, she said, ‘both men here seem more intent in looking like physical and status equals. Trump’s feet are pushed under his chair, and he is on his toes, suggesting a desire to move and keep flexible in his discussion. His hands are clasped and his lips pursed to suggest a desire to listen. But Zelensky’s feet are pushed out and planted flat on the floor, hinting at a more stubborn approach. However, his cupped hands suggest a desire to persuade, with his raised brows suggesting he’s keen to make a point.’ ”
Two hours earlier in the Roman morning, Trump had composed and released a tweet which was hostile towards President Vladimir Putin who did not attend the funeral; Russia’s representative was the Culture Minister, Olga Lyubimova.
Source: https://x.com/
Lyubimova maintained media silence during her stay in Rome and on her return.
Trump’s intention to magnify his personal supremacy began with the release of a text he had composed and tweeted in Rome several hours before the papal ceremonies began.
In his display, Trump was signaling a tilt against Putin in words and threats, in person, a tilt towards Zelensky.
Source: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114404524335638236
Trump’s combination is a signal that he is unsure what terms Putin has agreed to – and that the report Trump had received from Steven Witkoff after his Friday meeting at the Kremlin was either unclear or unacceptable.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov had warned the Americans not to jump to conclusions in his interview on CBS’s “Face the Nation” on April 24.
“MARGARET BRENNAN: Will Russia continue targeting Kyiv despite President Trump saying, ‘Vladimir, STOP!’
MINISTER LAVROV: You’re not listening to me. We will continue to target the sites used by the military of Ukraine, by some mercenaries from foreign countries and by instructors whom the Europeans officially sent to help target Russian civilian sites.”
In the extended 44-minute interview which CBS delayed for release until April 27, Lavrov repeatedly said there has been no Russian agreement yet on the points presented in the US term sheet delivered by Witkoff to Macron, Starmer and Zelensky, and then to Putin. Read the details as published by Reuters and the New York Times on April 25 by clicking here.
“MARGARET BRENNAN: Yeah. You mentioned that the US and Russia need to work on some of these fine points of a deal have you—
MINISTER LAVROV: — Yeah, do you want this to be spelled out?
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, of course, I’d love that. But my question was–
MINISTER LAVROV: This is not the way we—
MARGARET BRENNAN: –European sources say that the US proposal is really just kind of a list of bullet points. Does Russia have details, the details you need at this point in terms of a formal proposal?
MINISTER LAVROV: We are really polite people, and unlike some others, we never discuss in public what is being discussed in negotiations. Otherwise, negotiations are not serious. To ask for somebody’s opinion regarding the substance, go to Zelensky. He is happy to talk to anybody through media, even to President Trump. He presents his- his claims. We are–
MARGARET BRENNAN:– Well, he said he hasn’t received a formal proposal, so I was wondering if you had–
MINISTER LAVROV: — We are- we are serious people and we consider serious proposals. We make serious proposals, and this is a process which is not supposed to be public until the end of it.
MARGARET BRENNAN: Okay, so no deal is imminent?
MINISTER LAVROV: I didn’t say this. Now- now I understand, by the way, why you wanted to get the brief answers to your questions. You want some slogans to be- to be-
MARGARET BRENNAN: — No, the president of the United States said there was a deal with Russia. So I wanted to ask Russia if there is a deal with the United States. So, I just want to be clear.
MINISTER LAVROV: So, we made our comments on this statement. The- the negotiations continue, and until the end of the negotiations. We cannot disclose what it is about.”
In the full interview Lavrov was repeatedly asked to disclose what the US term sheet has proposed, and what the Russian side has agreed. He repeatedly refused. “How do you expect a participant of negotiations which are still to reach some kind of specific understanding to disclose details in public. It is not serious…I read- I read- I read President Trump’s book, the art to make a deal, and he does not advise to disclose information before- before it’s time.”
Lavrov did rule out Russian agreement on the US proposals to take control of the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant and negotiate quid pro quo for recognition of Crimea.
“No, we- we never received such an offer and if we do, we will explain that the power station — Zaporozhye nuclear power station is run by the Russian Federation state corporation called Rosatom. It is under monitoring of the IAEA personnel permanently located on the site. And if not for the regular Ukrainian attempts to attack the station and to create a nuclear disaster for Europe and for Ukraine as well, the safety requirements are fully implemented and it is in very good hands.
MARGARET BRENNAN: So that’s a no?
MINISTER LAVROV: No, I don’t think- I don’t think any change is conceivable
…
MARGARET BRENNAN: Zaporozhye is not being negotiated right now?
MINISTER LAVROV: Shall I say it for the third time?
…
MARGARET BRENNAN: President Trump said Crimea is not even being discussed right now.
MINISTER LAVROV: Yes, because this is a done deal.
MARGARET BRENNAN: You mean Russia occupies and controls and will not negotiate the future of Crimea? Is that what you’re saying?
MINISTER LAVROV: Russia- Russia does not negotiate its own territory.
…
MARGARET BRENNAN: Well, there have been very clear, specific things said by the Trump Administration, such as the vice president saying that the current lines of contact in Ukraine would freeze and end up fairly close to where troops are right now. Do you actually consider that a concession?
MINISTER LAVROV: I don’t discuss publicly the details of what is being subject of negotiations. I understand that you love rumours, because rumours–
MARGARET BRENNAN: The Vice President of the United States said it on camera.
MINISTER LAVROV: Was it a question?
MARGARET BRENNAN: Oh, well, rumour- rumour. You said it was a rumour. The Vice President said it. Perhaps you missed it.
MINISTER LAVROV: No, I said about us, we are not discussing things which are subject to negotiations.”
There are factions in Moscow urging Putin to accept some of the terms on the US term sheet, including a Ukraine-wide ceasefire and an armistice of forces on the current line of contact east of the Dnieper River. This would require Putin to give up Russian sovereignty of areas of the four regions of Novorossiya which became part of the Russian Federation in September 2022.
Vice President Vance departing India on April 24: source -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MAJifneC598 For analysis, go to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTP7v4BB-Bo
According to these faction sources, some officials acknowledge privately it’s a “bad deal”.
Dmitry Medvedev, the former president now deputy secretary of the Security Council, has publicly advocated a Russian military campaign to reduce Ukraine to a rump between Poland and Russia.
Source: https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1764598144497512613
This month so far Medvedev has been uncharacteristically silent except for the traditional Orthodox Easter message, and confirmation of the liquidation of the last Ukrainian forces in Kursk region. “On the eve of the Great Victory holiday [May 9], our heroic warriors continue to smash the enemy in other directions. The Nazi scum must disappear from our land forever!” Medvedev has not commented on the Witkoff negotiations or Trump’s statements.
Oleg Tsarev, a Ukrainian opposition leader now based in Crimea, has been
non-committal on the terms in negotiation, except to emphasize the gains to Russia if Trump halts financial, military, and intelligence support of Kiev. “It is difficult to accuse Trump of lobbying for a ‘pro-Russian’ peace plan. His plan is far from ‘pro-Russian’, the plan simply corresponds to the position of the winner and the defeated. If Russia had lost, Trump’s terms would probably be different…Trump does not have much time for the presidency, and he tries to spend it as effectively as possible – peace for 100 days, and then joint, US-profitable projects with Russia. As for the next threat of sanctions, my feeling that this is just a familiar repeat from the script, “Keep them nervous’; and that Trump feels he needs to show impartiality in his peacekeeping mission.”
Tsarev hints that Russia may accept a bad deal if the terms are much worse for the Zelensky regime.
Dmitry Rogozin, Senator for Zaporozhye, leading a combat unit on the front, and a national presidential figure, has not commented on the US proposals affecting his region. On April 24 he was explicit that Russian forces should not stop their westward advance. “Ukraine [is] an extreme form of ethnic nationalism. The only questions for us about all these ‘Ukrainians’ with Hungarian, Jewish, Russian, Little Russian surnames are how, when, and at what cost we will be able to destroy them. We can’t live with them next door. Reconcile? After everything that has happened? No, of course not. We have no right to leave on [Russia’s] western borders such a powerful, organized criminal state corporation looking for a reason and a way to kill our children. We can only calm down when our neighbours are the Poles. [That is] also not the best prospect, but they are understandable to us and historically predictable.”
Oleg Tsarev (left), Dmitry Rogozin (right). Both have been woundded in Ukrainian assassination attempts.
A Moscow source for current Kremlin thinking acknowledges that accepting Trump’s terms “is the best bad deal Russia can hope for. From the perspective of the Europeans and US war fighters, this is an awful deal. So Russians win this round. Putin knows it will be a matter of time before the terms will be violated by the Americans. All Russians know this. There should be a lot of grumbling and it will get louder and clearer with political jockeying once the war pauses. We will see the gloves come off then.”
The signals from Trump, and in the last twenty-four hours from Rubio, indicate they are far from confident that the terms they have proposed to Putin through Witkoff last Friday are likely to be accepted. “The last week has really been about figuring out how close are these sides really,” Rubio conceded in an NBC Meet the Press interview on April 27, “and are they close enough that this merits a continued investment of our time as a mediator in this regard.”
Rubio isn’t positive he knows. “We think we’ve brought the sides closer than they’ve been in a very long time. But we’re not there yet, and it needs to start happening…There are reasons to be optimistic, but there are reasons to be realistic, of course, as well. We’re close but we’re not close enough.”
“Look, if it doesn’t happen, [if] it doesn’t come to fruition, then as a nation-state there are options that we have for those who we hold responsible for not wanting the peace. But we prefer not to get to that stage yet because we think it closes the door to diplomacy…in order for this war to end, there are things Russia wants that it will not get, and there are things Ukraine wants that it will not get. If it wasn’t the case, that would have been done a long time ago. No one here is claiming that one side is going to unconditionally surrender to the other and bring this to an end, but that’s why diplomacy can be difficult and time-consuming, but it is the only way to end this conflict. There is no military solution to this war. The only solution to this war is a negotiated settlement where both sides are going to have to give up something they claim to want and are going to have to give the other side something they wish they didn’t.”
Source: https://www.nbcnews.com/
Transcript: https://www.state.gov/
According to Rubio, right now it’s not the time to discuss the threat of new sanctions which Trump and others in Washington have made, including China and India for buying Russian oil and gas. “We’re trying to bring two sides together. The last thing you want to do is give some side – one of the two sides an excuse to walk away from this effort… we have multiple options, frankly, to address this and to deal with all of this, but we don’t want to get to that point. This is still not the time. I think what the President is saying, and has been saying for some time now, is he is aware that he has these options – people ask him about it all the time – but what he really wants is a peace deal.”
Asked for how much time Trump and his officials are willing to give for the negotiations, Rubio said this hasn’t been decided. “I always think it’s silly to set a specific date or whatever…we think we’ve brought the sides closer than they’ve been in a very long time. But we’re not there yet, and it needs to start happening. We need to start – I think this is going to be a very critical week. This week is going to be a really important week in which we have to make a determination about whether this is an endeavor that we want to continue to be involved in, or if it’s time to sort of focus on some other issues that are equally if not more important in some cases.”
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