by John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with
The damage assessments of yesterday’s November 28 electric war strikes against targets across the Ukraine spell the countrywide collapse of electricity supply before January 20, when the new Trump Administration will take office.
By then, the Russian General Staff will have deprived Keith Kellogg, the retired US Army general newly appointed to serve as Trump’s negotiator for end-of-war terms, of the options he has publicly declared for himself, and also for Trump, in their war to make America great again in Europe.
“The Mayor of Kiev told us this is genocide,” Kellogg said in interview with Fox News. “Now we are right on the cusp…This is going to be a fight to the end… Again, as I said, I think it’s a fight to the finish…Why this is important geo-strategically is that if we [US] can — if the Ukrainians can defeat Russia in the field, and evict them from the Donbass or the Crimea, Putin falls. It changes Europe for a generation to come…So one of these two sides is going to win. I don’t think there’s going to be anything to negotiate.”
Kellogg said this in February 2023, after he had returned from a sponsored trip to Kiev and to the eastern region of the country. Subsequently, he was paid to write an end-of-war strategy paper for Trump to use during the last months of the election campaign this year. This focused on attacking the Biden Administration for weakening the US and the NATO allies on the battlefield, and also in Europe. Trump’s “geo-strategic” priority remained, Kellogg wrote, to prevent “Ukraine fatigue among the Europeans, threatening to leave the United States, once again, as the primary defence contributor to Europe and further straining America’s ability to maintain its own critical defence stockpiles.”
Negotiating to prevent the US from losing its military dominance in Europe, and to conserve the forces and weapon supplies “needed in other conflicts, especially if China invades Taiwan” are Kellogg’s running orders from Trump.
Russian sources say that reviving the Reagan Administration’s “Star Wars” weapons systems to combat Russia’s Kinzhal and Oreshnik missile advantage is the unstated “geo-strategic” priority, not only of Kellogg but of others in the Trump administration. They believe Elon Musk will lobby the president to make himself “chief US rocketeer to get a trillion-dollar contract to build missiles to counter us. But if they want a new arms race, they are already trailing. They will lose in space what they’ve already lost on the ground.”
According to a US veteran of the Afghanistan War, the career military experience Kellogg brings to his new job is “losing, not winning on the battlefield. He’s a typical empire enforcer. The last time Kellogg fought a competent military force, it was the Vietnamese, and Kellogg lost. For Trump to pick a man whose military victories are the invasion of Panama, the defeat of Iraq in Gulf War-1, and running a nuclear war bunker with Paul Wolfowitz during 9/11, tells you that it’s lights-out in the minds of both the soldier and his commander.”
Read a verbatim translation of the operational assessment of the electric war strikes of November 28 by the Russian military blog known as the Donbass Partisan. It has been republished by the larger circulation Colonel Cassad milblog directed by Boris Rozhin. The USAID video illustration and grid map has been added for illustration of the identified targets.
Analysis of strikes on 750 kV substations in Ukraine: consequences for the energy infrastructure and their strategic importance
750 kV substations are the main nodes, hubs, or junctions in the Ukrainian energy network, providing electricity transmission from nuclear power plants (NPPs). These remain the main generation facilities still in operation after the earlier series of attacks on thermal power plants. These facilities connect nuclear power plants, regional distribution hubs, and industrial consumers. Hitting them and disabling them is a [General Staff] priority.
As previously reported, three key 750 kV substations were targeted today – the Vinnytsa, Kiev and West Ukraine (Zapadnoukrainskaya) substations. These play a crucial role in the distribution of electricity from the electricity generating nuclear power plants (NPP).
Last month on October 3, Samantha Power, the Biden Administration’s chief of the US Agency for International Development (USAID), advertised US aid to rebuild the Ukrainian electricity grid, standing in front of a destroyed autotransformer at a substation in west Ukraine whose name and location she concealed. “USAID is doubling our investments in replacing autotransformers and in providing protection to the energy infrastructure that remains,” Power said. “Thanks to the support of the American people, USAID is working to keep the lights on and to keep the heat going this winter.” Until February of this year USAID spent $422 million on US-made equipment for the Ukrainian electricity system. Then in September Power announced another $325 million for repair and replacement of Ukrainian losses in the electric war. . Here is the inventory of US generators, transformers, pipes, transformer oil and other supplies for the Ukraine which have been draining supplies in the American market, driving up the domestic prices and waiting-time for the US electrical engineering consumers.
Vinnytskaya 750 kV
The Vinnytsa 750 kV substation is one of the main power transmission nodes in the central part of Ukraine. It is connected to the South Ukrainian NPP through VL-750 high-voltage lines and provides the transmission of electricity to the western and central regions of the country.
Main characteristics and damage
• TRDCTN-250000 750 autotransformers — two of the four transformers have been damaged. This equipment is used to convert 750 kV voltage to lower levels (330/110 kV) for supply to distribution networks.
• Open switchgear: 750 kV sections were severely damaged by the shock wave.
• High voltage lines: VL-750 Vynnitsa to Kiev is damaged, which has led to the cutoff of energy transmission to the Kiev region; VL-750 Vinnitsa to Zapadnoukrainskaya is not affected.
• Relay protection and automation systems: the ABB REF615 devices responsible for protecting transformers and lines are damaged.
Target value
The impact on the Vynnitsa substation has directly affected the energy supply of the central regions, as it is a key node for the transmission of electricity from the South Ukrainian NPP. Damage at this substation makes it difficult to balance the power system in conditions of power shortage.
Kievskaya 750 kV
The Kiev 750 kV substation is the main distribution node for supplying energy to Kiev city and the surrounding region. It is connected to the Rivne and Khmelnitsky nuclear power plants through the high-voltage lines, Kiev to Khmelnitsky VL-750 and Kiev to Rivne VL-750.
Main characteristics and damage
• Backup transformer ATDCTN-125000 750: damaged by fire. The device was responsible for voltage stabilization at high loads.
• 750 kV ORU: damage caused the shutdown of transit lines.
• High voltage lines: VL-750 Kiev to Rivne: the transmission of energy from the Rivne NPP has been disrupted. VL-750 Kiev to Khmelnitsky, not damaged.
• Relay protection and automation: Siemens Siprotec 7SA52 equipment providing protection of lines and transformers has failed.
Target value
This substation is a hub for transmission of energy from western nuclear power plants to the central regions, and its damage increases the load on the remaining power lines.
For enlarged view of locations and key to power transmission lines and substations, click on source: https://www.cigre.org/ (2018)
Zapadnoukrainskaya (West Ukraine) 750 kV
The Zapadnoukrainskaya 750 kV substation is the most important facility for the transmission of electricity from the Rivne NPP to the western and central regions of Ukraine. It is also connected to the Ukrainian-Polish power grid carrying electricity exports to and imports from EU countries.
Main characteristics and damage
• TRDN-80000 750 autotransformers: one autotransformer was completely destroyed; another one was seriously damaged.
• ORU 750 kV: sections of the ALS-750 busbars have been damaged.
• High voltage lines: VL-750 Zapadnoukrainskaya to Rivne is damaged, disrupting thereby energy transmission between them. VL-750 Zapadnoukrainskaya to Vinnitska has been disconnected which limits transmission of electricity to the central regions.
• Cable communication and control systems: completely out of order.
Target value
The strike on the West Ukrainian substation created power outages in the Lvov and Transcarpathian regions. The facility plays a key role in the integration of Ukraine’s energy system with the European sources of electricity.
Source: https://x.com/mtracey/
To follow Kellogg’s 2023 interview with Fox News, click here.
Other US general-rank retirees have endorsed the Kellogg appointment. One of them, Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, said this week that competing candidates for the Ukraine post “might have been a little harsh on Ukraine… Back in December 2023 [Kellogg] wrote about there being US and European security guarantees that might include NATO and the European Union. Those are the kind of inducements that I think Ukraine has earned in fighting off this Russian aggression… [This is] the reason I’m a little optimistic of General Kellogg.”
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