By John Helmer, Moscow
@bears_with
There is the possibility that during the exceptional telephone call President Vladimir Putin has just had with Mohsen Rezaei, head of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, Putin told Rezaei that President Donald Trump is so obsessed with his personal impotence that rational deterrence is impossible with him.
If Putin said this – the Kremlin is still keeping the call secret after the Iranian state media confirmed it — one reason is that it is, medically speaking, the truth.
Trump’s symptomatic references to the potency organs of the male body are documented here. The clinical prognosis at the American end: “An already dangerously erratic president veer[s] deeper and deeper into what amounts to hallucination. Given the prospect of deeply embarrassing and shameful defeat in the midterms, the all-too-appropriate question becomes: Will Trump’s fantasies become sadistic? If so, who will he choose as his next victims?…We will be governed for the next two-plus years by a rebuked but powerful president with fraying internal psychological guardrails. The Joint Chiefs of Staff should consider moving the threat level to DEFCON 1.”
(The psephological diagnosis is more rational. According to some pollsters, Trump’s locker-room talk is a pitch for votes from American males under the age of 34 who are increasingly frustrated by their not getting voluntary sex and by their lack of income to pay for it; and the substitution of what is still affordable to them – a gym subscription for muscle building.)
At the Russian end of this evidence, Putin’s principal negotiator with Trump, Kirill Dmitriev (lead image, left), is also facing a crisis of impotency. If Trump is defeated in the mid-term election results, losing both houses of Congress, Dmitriev’s strategy of bribery of Trump, his family, and supporters will be more than circumsized, castrated more like. Dmitriev himself risks becoming a prosecution witness in the corruption trials which the newly elected Congressional majority have planned. In Moscow, anecdotes about Dmitriev’s masculinity – his wife is best friend and business partner with Putin’s daughter — risk becoming as explicit as Trump’s talk.
In the new podcast with Nima Alkhorshid — aired live on Tuesday at 6am ET — we discuss Putin’s options for the western and southern front wars, Ukraine and Iran, after the Election Day results are in.
We also present the first analysis in English of the Warsaw putsch which Prime Minister Donald Tusk attempted in vain last week, and is still trying to pursue against President Karol Nawrocki. This Polish story is presented as an example of the mistaken line on European politics which, alongside the Trump-first line, is now being reconsidered in the Kremlin.
Click to listen or view: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcAHDcIBQB4
Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcAHDcIBQB4
Background references:
THE TRUMP SUCCESSION FROM TODAY
Source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2028/national
Source: https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/democratic-primary/2028/national
THE TUSK PUTSCH AND POLISH POLITICAL CRISIS
Source: https://www.sejm.gov.pl/sejm10.nsf/page.xsp/kluby_stat
In the right-hand column, this is the current party and faction lineup in the Sejm, the Polish parliament, which will vote on the no-confidence motion against Tusk on November 5 – if Tusk doesn’t attempt to block the vote, take executive power for himself, and impose a state of emergency first. For the time being, there is no credible English-language reporting on the Polish crisis. For this presentation, I have relied on my Warsaw colleague, Stanislas Balcerac, and on the reporting in the Polish press. For the record as Russian warfighters and paid propagandists of Radek Sikorski and Anne Applebaum, read the backfile: https://johnhelmer.net/?s=sikorski
THE RUSSIAN SECURITY CONCEPT FOR THE PERSIAN GULF REGION
Source: https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/news/1466427/
Source: https://mid.ru/ru/foreign_policy/news/2158996/
CHINESE NEGOTIATOR TO IRAN
“Global Times: The Spokesperson said a few days ago that China will send special envoys to the Middle East, the Gulf region, the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa. Can you share more details? Mao Ning: To deliver on the initiatives and propositions put forward by President Xi Jinping on promoting peace and security in the Middle East and the four principles on the constructive participation of relevant parties in the resolution of African hotspot issues, Special Envoy of the Chinese Government on the Middle East Issue Zhai Jun will visit Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia in early and mid-November; Special Representative of the Chinese Government on African Affairs Liu Xianfa will visit Ethiopia, Djibouti and Egypt in early and mid-November; and Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Affairs of the Foreign Ministry Hu Changchun will visit Eritrea in early November. These shuttle diplomacy visits in this period of time by Chinese special envoys and special representative are aimed at promoting peace talks, easing tensions, and playing a constructive role for upholding regional peace and stability.” Source: https://www.mfa.gov.cn/eng/xw/fyrbt/lxjzh/202611/t20261102_12051648.html
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