By John Helmer
@bears_with
When politicians fight wars to truce or ceasefire, there’s a mistake they often make. That is to give up escalation dominance, escalation control, to the adversary so that he gains confidence that when he is ready, he will resume fighting in a much stronger position than he was at the truce. In short, ceasefire doesn’t deter the resumption of fighting; it doesn’t make for ceaseforce.
As President Vladimir Putin prepares for Istanbul-II — the resumption of negotiations with the Ukraine proposed for May 15 — he has announced that he understands the difference better now than he did at Istanbul-I in March 2022. The Russian General Staff and the intelligence services believe so.
The aim of “serious negotiations”, Putin read from a statement, “is to eliminate the root causes of the conflict and to achieve a long-term last peace…in the course of these negotiations it will become possible to agree on some kind of new truce and a new ceasefire. And a real ceasefire that…would be the first step, I repeat, towards a long-term, sustainable peace, rather than a prelude to continuing armed conflict after the Ukrainian armed forces have been rearmed, re-equipped…Who needs such peace?”
The President took no questions from the press assembled to listen to him at 2 am on Sunday morning.
While Putin was addressing the departing heads of government and of state who had joined in the Moscow celebration of Victory Day, the strategic Russian ally who was absent, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, sent Putin a message of his own after his brief war with Pakistan.
Through his air force chief, Air Marshal A.K. Bhakti, briefing the press later on the same day, May 11, the message was: “[It is] time to convey a message to our adversaries…We have the capability to target every system at these bases, and more. However, it was only a measured response to install good wisdom to our adversary to deter further escalation.”
In this podcast, Nima Alkhorshid, Ray McGovern and I discuss the tipping of the strategic balance which Russia is aiming to achieve against the Zelensky regime in Kiev and those who finance, arm and instruct it – Donald Trump, Friedrich Merz, Emmanuel Macron, and Keir Starmer. In parallel, Modi believes he has achieved this strategic tipping in the dismantling of Pakistan as a platform for China to threaten war against India in the future; we discuss whether the Indians are right to claim a strategic victory against China, too.
These are big questions for discussion. The answers are surprising, and although they are recognized in Moscow, they are not yet for public discussion. Click to watch.
In the sequence of events and statements preceding Putin’s late-night summons to reporters, President Donald Trump closely coordinated with French President Emmanuel Macron in Kiev German Chancellor Friedrich Mertz, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.
According to French presidential film clips posted on Macron’s Twitter account, Macron had telephoned Trump to confirm that Vladimir Zelensky had agreed to conditions Trump had ordered, including a 30-day ceasefire starting the next day, Monday May 12.
Source: https://x.com/
Trump remained silent during Saturday’s meetings in Kiev. On Sunday, reacting to Putin’s overnight statement, Trump tweeted that Putin “doesn’t want to have a Cease Fire Agreement with Ukraine”, but he ordered Zelensky to agree to the Russian proposal for meeting in Istanbul.
Source: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114490093180275292
The time shown was Moscow time; the tweet was posted at 12:17 pm Washington time.
When Zelensky tweeted on Sunday evening in Kiev, he did what Trump had told him: “Starting tomorrow, we await a ceasefire — this proposal is on the table. A full and unconditional ceasefire, one that lasts long enough to provide a necessary foundation for diplomacy, could significantly bring peace closer. Ukraine has long proposed this, our partners are proposing it, and the whole world is calling for it. We await a clear response from Russia…Here in Ukraine, we have absolutely no problem engaging in negotiations, we are ready for any format. I will be in Türkiye this Thursday, May 15, and I expect Putin to come to Türkiye as well. Personally. And I hope that this time, Putin won’t be looking for excuses as to why he ‘can’t’ make it. We are ready to talk, to end this war. Thursday. Türkiye. President Trump has expressed support. All the leaders support this.”
Source: https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1921642678057635893
The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio telephoned Chancellor Merz and British Foreign Secretary Davdi Lammy. The State Department communiqués confirmed their conversations touched on the Ukrainian negotiations but without details.
Trump followed with a tweet foreshadowing a big announcement.
Source: https://truthsocial.com/
Four hours later, what followed from Trump had nothing to do with the Ukraine negotiations. Instead, he announced his plan to cut domestic drug prices.
On Monday (May 12), before he left Washington to fly to the Middle East, Trump called reporters to a White House press conference in which he claimed he had “insisted” on the Istanbul meeting between the Ukraine and Russia. “Don’t underestimate Thursday in Turkey…I think you may have a good result out of the Thursday meeting in Turkey between Russia and Ukraine. I believe the two leaders were going to be there. I was thinking about flying over. I don’t know where I’m going to be on Thursday. I’ve got so many meetings, but, uh, I was thinking about actually flying over there. There’s a possibility of it, I guess, if I think things can happen, but we’ve got to get it done.”
Source: https://truthsocial.com/
Trump had nothing more to say as he flew to Saudi Arabia with a stop at the Royal Air Force Mildenhall base enroute to Riyadh. Over flight time of almost sixteen hours, Trump issued no tweets.
For detailed background for the podcast discussion of the India-Pakistan war, watch the Indian military briefing of May 11:
In this May 11 briefing by the three heads of operations for the Indian air forces (Air Marshal AK Bakhti), land forces (Lieutenant General Rajiv Ghai), and naval forces (Vice Admiral AN Pramod), the press was allowed to ask questions on the record, and the officers were available after the session off camera. For additional analysis of the air strikes from, both sides, click to read.
For an analysis of the outcome on India’s strategic gains, watch Lieutenant General Ravi Shankar’s broadcast on Gunners Shot on May 11.
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