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By John Helmer

The newsletter from the US Embassy warned recently that middle-aged American males should be on the lookout for a dangerous thief in Moscow who puts them to sleep before he or she steals their wallets, and any other property that can be carried off.

At the start of the last century in the US, the term Mickey Finn referred to the lowlife trick of administering a stupefying drug to a target in a bar, and then accompanying the victim to his home nearby. An Irish name was used, because in those days in downtown New York, the prostitutes were Irish.

In Moscow the drug clonidine is used by Russians of either male or female sex, who drop it in liquid or pill form into the drink of the unsuspecting target. After about thirty minutes, the drug lowers blood pressure, inducing unconsciousness. Watch out for Anatoly Finn.
(more…)

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President Vladimir Putin has surprised the Russian banking community, and global emerging market analysts, by dismissing the Central Bank chief Victor Gerashchenko, and replacing him with a man, who despite a decade of holding senior finance policy posts in Moscow, is totally unknown to have opinions of his own.

Sergei Ignatiev, 54, currently deputy finance minister, was named by Putin after the markets closed on Friday. According to parliamentary deputies, he will be confirmed as the new chairman of the Central Bank without opposition; the vote is scheduled for Wednesday.

Putin’s latest appointment follows a string of similar appointments of unknown middle-aged bureaucrats to such posts as chief executive of the state-owned diamond company, Alrosa; and the ministers of railways, energy, and natural resources. (more…)

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By John Helmer

The only foreign-language sentence that managed to lodge itself correctly in the brain of Ronald Reagan, before he developed Alzheimer’s Disease but after he became President of the United States, was “doveryai no proveryai”. As he never tired of explaining, that is Russian for “trust but verify.”

Reagan and his successors always meant to apply that to treaties on arms deployments and limitations. Bankers and other businessmen mean to apply it to every form of financial or commercial contract that can be signed with Russian counterparties, especially since the government and the leading commercial banks defaulted on their obligations in 1998.

“Trust but verify” is the reason most foreign investment agreements with Russians contain a clause that places the jurisdiction for dispute resolution outside Russia in countries like Sweden, the United Kingdom, or the US. It is also the reason why both Russians and foreigners, who have lost assets and money to Russian raiders, are increasingly turning to the US court system to apply the US racketeering statute, with its triple damages clause. Among the Russian corporations now in the dock facing racketeering charges, there is LUKoil, Russian Aluminum, Alfa Bank, and Tyumen Neftegas. The list is growing fast.

Back when Reagan was getting out his bit of Russian, John Le Carre published a novel called “The Russia House”. It’s a tale about a Scotsman and minor publisher, whom British intelligence, then the CIA, use to obtain secrets from a high-level Soviet military scientist. The go-between is Katya Orlova; but the Scotsman falls in love with her. To save her, he has to dupe his British and American handlers, and make a deal with the KGB.

In the film version, Sean Connery playing the Scotsman tells a panel of KGB officers, after he’s delivered the secrets of the Anglo-American team: “We have a deal, and I expect you to honour that deal. I am talking about honour, not ideology.” The climax of the film comes when Michelle Pfeiffer, playing Katya, steps off a Russian boat and into Connery’s arms, proving that Russians honour their commitments, even if westerners don’t.

Fast forward to a new film version of a similar moral predicament. This is the new release called “Birthday Girl”, in which Nicole Kidman plays Nadia. She is a Russian girl who answers a lonely English banker’s request for a mail-order bride, and establishes herself in his home. John the banker is then set up by Nadia, and two Russian accomplices, who move into the house, and use John to steal 90,000 pounds from his own bank, before making their getaway.

“Don’t feel too bad”, Yuri, the mastermind of the scam, tells John after gagging and tying him up. He then shows him photographs of all the other western men Nadia and her gang have duped. But that isn’t the end of the tale. John pursues the trio, who start fighting among themselves over the money. Having betrayed John, Nadia then betrays her accomplices, taking all the money for herself — and also, it seems, for John. With Nadia and the money, he climbs on board the return flight to Moscow, improbably equipped with a Russian passport in the name of one of the accomplices. What will happen to John at Sheremetyevo isn’t of interest to the filmmakers, who think they have tied up their flic with a happy ending in midair. We can guess what the
airport officers will do to John on arrival — and what Nadia will do once she’s home.

In the new film, there’s a lot of talk about love, as there was in the earlier film. But not a word about honour. What a difference the decade between the two films makes, at least to the image of Russian women, and Russian honour.

In that decade I’ve known many Russian women, including one who is the most wicked individual of any gender I’ve known. She’s exceptional. But as a general rule, in the decade between “The Russia House” and “Birthday Girl” it has turned out that Russian women lost their honour, as did the other gender, as well as almost every type of Russian organization from the KGB on up, or down, depending on your point of view. The dishonouring process has been so thorough, you have to wonder whether it was a mistake to imagine it, when Le Carre thought so, in the Soviet period. We have arrived at a time when Russian dishonour is a topic for comedy; and honour, in the old fashioned sense, is laughable.

The honour of Joes (spy jargon) and Johns (sex business) may be misplaced enough to amuse. But of course, bankers to Russia can’t afford the luxury. When one of the largest banks in the world decided (this month) that it won’t even review the state of the Russian metals sector, because it doesn’t want to lend any money to the companies that occupy it, that suggests how fundamentally flawed the methodology of trust-and-verify has become. After all, Russian metals producers are among the market leaders and price makers of the world. If western bankers judge they can’t trust them, because they can’t verify their financials, then the small sums of credit that are trickling through on short-run, high-price terms won’t be anywhere near enough to sustain the growth and competitive edge which these producers need.

This is no joke, unless Russian metals producers think they can outlive their bankers. Now that’s funny.

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When a tree falls in the forest, everywhere in the world the same thing happens. It makes a loud noise; it drops to the right or left; it crushes the life below unpredictably. But when a Russian bank crashes, it comes down in a way that’s unique – less like a doomed tree, more like a rat escaping into a warren of tunnels that were dug in advance.

Alexander Smolensky, the proprietor of SBS-Agro, Russia’s largest depositor bank in 1998, is probably the only banker in the world to escape scot-free from the consequences of what he did to bring his bank down. As he shuttles between homes in Austria, England, Russia and elsewhere, he has never been held accountable for his actions, which led to the billion-dollar losses of the bank, nor has he answered to the charges that he and his cronies stripped the assets of the bank, both before and after the crash. He has not been charged with any wrongdoing. He has paid nothing. He continues in the banking business as if nothing had ever happened. His net worth may be as good, or even better today, than it was before he and his bank parted company. (more…)

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There’s an old saying – not everyone with a knife is a cook.

Take the EU trade commissioners, for example, and the European Commission’s Directorate-General III (Industry). For years, these appointees of every European manufacturing interest, large and small, have hectored audiences in Moscow about the desirability of reform in the Russian steel industry. They even dispatched a group of consultants, dressed up to look as if they were technical experts, for the purpose of persuading Russian steel mills to junk their old open hearths and modernize with all the new technology the Germans and Italians could sell them. Those who refused to buy European machinery were doomed, the experts forecast, and should be shut down.

That was cooking the Euro way. But the knife was meant to cut for a different purpose. However, the targets didn’t die as the Europeans intended. Not only has no major Russian steelmaker closed down -they have consolidated and prospered, largely through exports. It is the European and American steelmakers who have been dropping instead. (more…)

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A Moscow investment bank recently concluded that President Vladimir Putin’s popularity has become so solid, “almost no imaginable political development can significantly affect it.”

That’s quite a leap of imagination for a banker but, as the assessment is widely held in both domestic and foreign circles, it’s worth taking a closer look at the evidence and at the way the president himself is acting to see if he feels as secure as everyone thinks he should be.

The most important indicator is non-payment of wages or wage arrears – the infamous tax invented by former President Boris Yeltsin, Yegor Gaidar and Anatoly Chubais. According to the official numbers, as of Jan. 1, this fell 14 percent compared to the month earlier. The arrears total was 29.9 billion rubles. In absolute terms, this is the lowest level since 1996, when the IMF, the Clinton Administration and then German Chancellor Helmut Kohl were pumping cash into the Russian treasury to help Yeltsin win re-election that year. In terms of comparative purchasing power, the current arrears total is much lower than then. (more…)

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The ancient wit of Aesop was born out of misfortune and is especially sharp on the subject of people getting their just desserts. You see, Aesop was unlucky enough to have been captured in war and sold into slavery as a personal secretary for his owners.

In Aesop’s fable about the middle-aged man and his mistresses, the circumstances and the moral are easily recognizable. According to Aesop, the man’s hair was turning gray. The older woman was embarrassed at having sex with a lover younger than herself, so whenever he came to her bed, she plucked out all his black hairs.

The younger woman recoiled from having an older lover so, in her bed, she took to puliing out the man’s gray hairs. And so it happened, Aesop records, that the more the man pursued his carnal appetite, the balder he became. (more…)

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One of the old Russian toast wishes everyone more pies and buns, fewer blackeyes and bruises. It seemed the exporters of platinum group metals were following the toast’s advice, until last week’s announcement from Ford Motor Company.

The new U.S. accounting rules obliged the auto giant to disclose the value of palladium it acquired last year at a price of $1,500 per ounce. Industry analysts believe Ford bought at least 1.9 million ounces from Engelhard, paying $400 more per ounce than the highest price of $1,100 palladium reached last February.

Palladium is a precious metal used mostly in the manufacture of catalytic converters; these are required in cars to control their gas emissions. Keeping a stock is normal for companies that manufacture cars. Paying Ford’s price seems to have come from the clever salesmanship of Engelhard, combined with the foolishness of Ford’s purchasers, when both were driven by speculation that Russia, the world’s primary supplier of the metal, was withholding exports in order to drive the price higher. (more…)

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Now that we are all done with cheering and feasting, it is worth remembering the pagan roots of the 12 Days of Christmas and the celebratory season in general.

Long before Jesus Christ was born, the ancient Greeks and Romans held festivals in late December to mark the winter solstice. For them, the rebirth of the sun and the return of daylight were worth celebrating. It’s one of the reasons the Roman Christians picked Dec. 25 for Christmas Day. The date coincided with the festival of the sun qod Mithras. His rebirth, and the birth of Christ, weren’t far from each other in meaning in the Fourth Century.

For the ancients, who also used to bring a green tree branch into the house, this was a time of year to appease evil spirits lurking in hiding places within the house or outside under the ground. In the snow-covered regions of northern Greece, for example, it was the custom to feed the bears. This was appeasement of a practical, not simply symbolic, sort. For, if the bears could easily find the food offered to them, they would be less likely to come looking for it in the villages. (more…)

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If you want to achieve the miracles required for sainthood, one of the great advantages of the Russian Orthodox Church is that it allows you to perform them after you are dead.

This not only relieves qualifiers for canonization of a lot of pressure while they are alive. It also gives them the benefit of more time and hindsight than ordinary mortals usually expect. You see, miracles in Russia are as much in the eye of the beholder as they are in the hands of the miracle-maker.

Take St. Sergius of Radonezh (Sergei Radonezhsky), for example. Born in 1314, Sergei managed to achieve his sainthood in 1448 -50 years after he had died. In his lifetime, Sergei started off as a hermit in the forests north of Moscow. His reputation for asceticism and hard work attracted a band of monks. With them, Sergei began establishing a chain of monasteries. Holy Trinity, which still stands at Sergeyev Posad, was one; Simonov Monastery, near the Zil car works in Moscow, was another. (more…)