By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Doctors in hospitals for the criminally insane have reported that the sharpest pain patients with superiority complexes suffer is the belief there are others who are more superior than they are. Unless they are stopped, they kill to cure.

US exceptionalism is a disease of this type.  The American exceptionalists believe that if the US isn’t conquering and victorious —  great again as in MAGA —  it is defeating itself because, they think, the US can never be beaten by a foreign adversary on the field —   not on the battlefield, nor in the marketplace, nor in the mind and on the page. So this is where the whitecoats arrive today:  the Russian General Staff and the Stavka  are defeating the Americans on every front, weapon system, intelligence summary, and mind. This has never happened before. Failing to see and understand this is delusional; those who kill to cure this aren’t all hospitalised.

A book repeating the US, NATO and Ukrainian version of how and why Russia’s Ukrainian battlefield campaign began on February 23, 2022, is symptomatic, nothing new. “We have no idea of exactly how the conflict will end”, concludes Owen Matthews (aka Bibikov) in a fresh publication from the state-subsidised printing press of Rupert Murdoch. But “we already know how it will not end. There will be no complete victory for either Russia or Ukraine. NATO is too invested to allow Kyiv to fall to the Russian army… this war will eventually end — with a negotiated peace.”*

Incomprehensible to Matthews is that the terms of the negotiated peace will be those of the Russian non-aggression treaties for the US and for NATO of December 17, 2021,  and they will be dictated at the end of the war by the force which prevails. They will be as definitive as the German terms signed by the French in the Compiègne Wagon on June 22, 1940;   and the American terms signed by the Japanese on the USS Missouri on September 2, 1945.  

Instead, Matthews dismisses the treaties in two paragraphs, based on what Matthews says an anonymous British Foreign Office official told him in March 2022 was “fantastical…[they] simply did make any sense…there was nothing in it that NATO could possibly agree to.”

What preceded, and also what followed those treaties, was the doing, in Matthews’s  psychopathological terminology, of “fantasies about anti-Russian fascists coming to power in Kyiv”; “paranoia over Western attempts to subvert and undermine Russia”; and other “lies and eschatological fantasies”. At the centre of this madness, according to Matthews, is the single figure of Vladimir Putin, advised by “Soviet-era fantasists and paranoiacs”; “on the point of paranoia about the [corona] virus”; “secluded and inaccessible in his Covid bunker”; obsessed by pseudo-historical revenge and “a kind of death cult”; surrounded by “the most deluded and most ideologically driven members of Putin’s entourage”; and speechifying “a set of unbelievably illiterate  conspiracy clichés…especially when the former Marxists in the Kremlin sincerely believed that inexorable historical forces were on their side.”

There is no question in Matthews’s diagnosis of who is in the madhouse, and who is superior. “By the time I met [Vladimir] Zelensky in Kyiv in July [2022] he cut a profoundly impressive figure – hard-eyed, emphatic in his speech.”

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by Editor - Sunday, September 3rd, 2023
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On August 24, 1991, Marshal Sergei Fyodorovich Akhromeyev committed suicide. He had returned from his holiday at Sochi responding to the attempted removal of Mikhail Gorbachev from power. According to the reports of the time, he hanged himself in his Kremlin office, leaving behind a note. One version of what it said was: “I cannot live when my fatherland is dying and everything that has been the meaning of my life is crumbling. Age and the life that I have lived give me the right to step out of this life. I struggled until the end.”

by Editor - Thursday, August 24th, 2023
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

The month of August is also for dead-heading the roses, so there will be fresh blooms before winter. It is the time to charge empty vessels (lead image, rear).

Plato was mistaken to claim that empty vessels make the loudest noise; this depends not only on the vessels but on the implement and the force used to strike them. Jesus Christ, who isn’t known to have read the old Greek, corrected his mistake by pointing out that instead of banging on as Plato did, the empty vessel can be filled with something handy,  like the spirit of God; in Jesus’s case, referring to the empty Paul of Damascus, Jesus meant Himself.  

Bears are more modest. This bear (lead image, front) prefers the company of readers, disclaiming disciples, state propaganda organs, substacks, and podcasters calling themselves judging freedom.  Accordingly, this bear recommends the usefulness of clear water to fill the vessel as a coolant when the heat of the day is at its peak.   

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by Editor - Sunday, July 30th, 2023
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

In the advertising Hall of Fame, three of the all-time winning slogans are “Just do it”; “Where’s the beef?”; and  “Good to the last drop”.  

Three Ukrainian army soldiers and a military press officer from Kiev  have pressed all three on the Financial Times of London, and they just hit the money, so to speak.

“Rather than dart across Russian minefields aiming to punch through enemy lines with Nato armour,” the newspaper is reporting, “Ukrainian forces have moved their focus to pounding Russian defensive positions with heavy artillery fire. Artillery gunners operating multiple-launch rocket systems and howitzers, some loaded with US-supplied cluster munitions, aim to clear pathways for small teams of sappers and infantry units. These troops then attempt to advance methodically on foot, moving forward one narrow tree line at a time in a select few spots along the 1,000-kilometre front line…  The painstaking strategy has raised questions in western capitals about whether Ukraine will be able to maintain it for long, or produce the kind of military breakthrough that would bring Moscow to the negotiating table… But in the short term, the tactic has reduced Ukrainian losses. Casualties and the number of prized western battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles lost in battle are down compared with the first two weeks of the counteroffensive, while Ukraine has made small but steady gains.” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Wednesday night praised ‘very good results’ on the frontline”, the newspaper added.  

This is the advertising to keep the US, the NATO allies, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) just doing it — continuing the $41.3 billion in military beef and $115 billion in cash to the last drop.

The battlefield outcome in measurable Russian military terms cannot be a winning tagline because it is irrelevant to advertising success in public and political terms on the US and NATO side. “The so-called counteroffensive,” President Vladimir Putin told a reporter on Thursday, “this broad counteroffensive, started on June 4, 2023. This is an obvious fact, demonstrated, among other things, by the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have engaged their so-called strategic reserves. As for the past few days, we can confirm that combat action has entered its intensive phase, to a significant extent. The clashes are primarily concentrated in what they call in the West the direction of the main attack – the Zaporozhye sector. Yesterday, there was serious military action within the area of responsibility of the 810th brigade of the Black Sea’s Naval Infantry and the 71st Regiment from the 42nd division of the Southern Military District’s 58th Army…The enemy has not succeeded in any of the sectors of combat activity. All attempts at the counteroffensive have been stopped. The enemy has been forced to retreat with substantial losses. Today, they tried to recover the damaged assets, as well as pick up the wounded and casualties after leaving them on the battlefield yesterday but were also dispersed. This is the current situation as of this moment.”  

The men and the materiel are being lost, but not the money. The latter is winning; the former is losing but doesn’t count.

There is also a process of the “Ukraine gaining admission to NATO piecemeal”, as the Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko described it to Putin on July 23.  “Tearing off this western piece of Ukraine: under the guise of NATO accession, to mislead the population. They want to chop off western Ukraine and join it to Poland. This is the payment for the active participation of the Poles in this operation, against the forces of the Russian Federation, of course. This is supported by the Americans. I told you this a long time ago, we witnessed this six months ago and discussed it preliminarily. Why am I telling you all this? It is unacceptable to us, Mr Putin. It is unacceptable to tear off western Ukrainian, dismember Ukraine and hand over these lands to Poland. And if, naturally, the western population of Ukraine needs this, we will be supporting them, of course.”

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by Editor - Friday, July 28th, 2023
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

When the Ukrainian and NATO forces have lost their war in eastern Ukraine by Christmas, what will happen to the rump of western Ukraine?

The Russian warning, issued last Friday at the Security Council by President Vladimir Putin,  is that the Russian Army will defend western Ukraine, known as Galicia, from any attempt at intervention by Polish forces under either a NATO “peacekeeping” formula, or a bilateral defence arrangement between the Kiev regime and Warsaw to slip Galicia under NATO Article Five protection.

Putin’s warning was concrete, explicit, geographically limited. It applied to the current western borders of the Ukraine, the eastern border of Poland, and the Polish-Belarus border. “I would also like to remind you what Poland’s aggressive policy led to. It led to the national tragedy of 1939, when Poland’s Western allies threw it to the German wolf, the German military machine. Poland actually lost its independence and statehood, which were only restored thanks in a large measure to the Soviet Union. It was also thanks to the Soviet Union and thanks to Stalin’s position that Poland acquired substantial territory in the west, German territory. It is a fact that Poland’s western lands are a gift from Stalin. Have our Warsaw friends forgotten this? We will remind them.”  

The Warsaw friends weren’t the only audience Putin intended. His warning is also addressed to the Berlin friends, the Baltic friends, the Paris, Brussels, and Budapest friends, and of course, the Washington friends.  In December 2021, they were offered the terms of mutual security and non-aggression in Europe in treaties for the US and NATO tabled by the Russian Foreign Ministry.  They were dismissed in diplomatic negotiations lasting less than a month.  

By Christmas of this year, as Putin has just pointed out, the Ukrainian army and the NATO forces will have expended their capacities to continue the fight. “The whole world sees that the vaunted Western, supposedly invulnerable, military equipment is on fire”, he added. What can happen next is “an extremely dangerous game, and the authors of such plans should think about the consequences.”

This is a warning that if the Poles move east, the Germans will be motivated to move east as well, in order to recover the Prussian territories Germany lost in its defeat and capitulation at the end of World War II. Hungary too will be motivated to change its northeastern border in order to rescue the ethnic Hungarian population of Transcarpathia in southwest Ukraine.

In short, Putin was announcing that “Stalin’s gift”, as he called it, was the stability of the post-1945 territorial settlement. Now, in defeating NATO’s attempt to destroy the Russians east of Kiev, the Russians are warning afresh that if NATO attempts to change its defence lines west of Kiev,  the Russian army will dictate an entirely new territorial settlement in which NATO will be an even bigger loser of military capacity and territorial extension than the non-aggression treaties of December 17, 2021, offered.

The 1990 promise of not one inch eastward for NATO  is reversing by one thousand kilometres westward.  

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by Editor - Wednesday, July 26th, 2023
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

President Vladimir Zelensky has enough fingers to count that $115 billion is worth almost three times more than $41.3 billion.

The first number is the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) calculation of  “external support over 2023–27 involving sizable official financing in the form of grants and concessional loans, as well as debt relief.”  This includes “SDR [Special Drawing Rights] 11.608 billion (577.01 percent of quota, about US$15.6 billion).” No IMF member state has ever been allowed to take a six-times multiple of its borrowing quota at this money volume except for the Ukraine. Nor has any IMF member state ever been authorised by the IMF board of directors to stop new domestic bank lending and postpone all borrowing obligations (“current debt standstill”) for at least another three years from this Christmas.

The resulting money pile the IMF calls “the wartime liquidity surplus”.

Converting this into the Ukrainian banks’ profit line and diverting that into individual cash and assets, Kiev officials have told Reuters to report as the “Ukraine banks’ robust health.” “Across the banking sector,” the New York-based propaganda agency reports,    “deposits are as abundant as they’ve ever been, and the country’s lenders have found ways to remain profitable.”  This is being done, they explain,  by borrowing more and more in government bonds at a 25% interest rate guaranteed by more IMF money flowing into the central bank; lending less and less to zero for customers; and ignoring the increasing pile-up of defaulted, non-performing,  or fraud loans.

This is Zelensky’s pyramid, even Reuters and its Ukrainian banker sources imply, though the IMF staff cannot bring themselves to say so. “In the current context, Ukrainian bankers note, the choice makes sense. “’We will only survive if the government survives,’ [Privatbank chief executive Gerhard] Boesch sums up.”  

The big money number dwarfs the Pentagon’s most recent estimate  that “the Biden administration has committed more than $41.3 billion in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of Russia’s invasion in February 2022.” The new July 7 number includes deliveries of Patriot missiles, HIMARS rockets, cluster bombs, and “dual-purpose improved conventional munitions, or DPICM”. Using the banker’s term, the Pentagon announcement declared “the Ukrainian forces have effectively leveraged assistance…So we will continue to provide Ukraine with the urgent capabilities that it needs to meet the moment, as well as what it needs to keep itself secure for the long term from Russian aggression.”

When President Zelensky’s hands reach for his pockets, the calculation of “leverage” applies a liquidity risk discount for goods compared to cash; arms and ammunition cannot be diverted with the same profitability as cash. This is also because Pentagon delivery controls are more closely enforced on the ground than the IMF can follow the cashflow once it leaves the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) and enters the oligarch banks now nominally nationalised.

It is thus clear that Zelensky’s pyramid is much more lucrative than the Ukrainian Defense Ministry and General Staff  pyramid. This is why the war on the battlefields of the east is also a war of the two pyramids in Kiev.  

To manage this war, the IMF uses its hands to pull the other leg. In the current IMF staff  report it calls the war of the pyramids “progress in governance, anti-corruption, and rule of law reforms.”

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by Editor - Tuesday, July 25th, 2023
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Russia’s warning to Poland not to send troops into the western Galician region of the Ukraine has fallen on deaf ears in Warsaw. Instead, electioneering ahead of an October national parliamentary vote has dictated different priorities for the governing party, the main opposition party, and the rising Konfederacja (“Confederation”) party.

No major politician in the country has commented. The government downplayed by summoning the Russian ambassador to the Foreign Ministry in Warsaw on Saturday to be told that Poland “strongly condemn[s] the threats and unjustified questioning of [Poland’s] borders.”  

Speaking from Washington, Radoslaw Sikorski, now a Polish member of the European Parliament under financial investigation, said Putin “is clearly up to something. He’s provoking Poland. Wagner’s mercenaries are in Belarus… He’s clearly preparing some kind of provocation, probably to draw Belarus into the war. I don’t expect him to attack NATO [Poland] because clearly Russia would lose… Let me be absolutely clear. Poland has zero territorial designs on anybody. This is just looking for some kind of provocation. Mr Putin’s war is not doing well. Umm, yee, perhaps he’s trying to scare us into, errr, us self-deterring so to speak.”   

To capture or hold the votes of Poles already concerned at the impact on the country of unrestricted Ukrainian and muslim refugees, and the losses to farmers of dumping of Ukrainian grain exports, Putin’s warning is not triggering public debate, or exposing significant differences between the government and the opposition parties.  

Independent Polish political analyst Stanislas Balcerac comments “there’s not much coverage, Poland is more concerned about Wagner in Belarus. There are other topics – the election campaign, toxic waste fire in Zielona Gora.    Confederation may be stealing some of the younger voters from the PiS [Law and Justice, the government party], but it is unclear how the PiS wants to deal with it between now and the election date.”

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by Editor - Sunday, July 23rd, 2023
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Soldiers lay down smoke on the battlefield to conceal their movements, advancing or retreating, from the troops on the other side.

In the US Army manuals for warfighting with smoke, there are four kinds for the battlefield (lead image) – obscuring smoke which is aimed at blinding the enemy so he can’t see what you have coming for him; screening smoke which is laid down between you and your enemy, so he can’t see what you are doing in your positions; protecting smoke which is aimed at disrupting the laser and other targeting systems of the other side’s artillery and rockets; and marking smoke whose purpose is either to pinpoint targets for air attackers or rear artillery, or identify safety positions on a rapid-movement battlefield.    

With the White House in the lead, in the war the NATO allies are fighting against Russia to the last Ukrainian, an entirely new kind of smoke has been used – it’s the blowback smoke which blinds its users. On the Ukrainian battlefield this smokescreen conceals nothing from the Russians. Instead, it is being used to deceive the NATO country media, voters,  and parliaments which must agree to subscribe the money to pay the Ukrainians to fight, and supply them with NATO ammunition, weapons, intelligence, and support services, including credits and cash. Vladimir Zelensky, the Ukrainian president best known for career comic turns — the most famous of which was playing  a piano with his penis (screened, protected, marked)  —   is the  master of the blowback smoke on the present battlefield.

A day ago, he told the Ukrainian deputy prime minister of Canada, Chrystia Freeland: “we are approaching a moment when relevant actions can gain pace because we are already going through some mines locations and we are demining these areas.”   The calculated ambiguities – “moment”, “approaching”, “relevant”, “can”, “pace”, “some” – are the smoke. The blowback was started by Freeland who told Zelensky that how his counteroffensive was going against the Russians is “the question in the minds of everyone here [and] the preoccupation of all of your friends in the world”.  Zelensky’s smoke was invited by Freeland to blind the world, especially their friends.

In this week’s War of the Worlds discussion with Swiss Army Colonel Jacques Baud, this tactic is exposed, and in its place evidence revealed of the French and other allied general staffs trying to find their way off the battlefield, as Zelensky forces are destroyed, along with the best of US, French, British and other NATO weapons. The programme was pre-recorded on Thursday.

Less than twenty-four hours later at a virtual session of the Russian Security Council, President Vladimir Putin made an unusual introduction to the closed-door plans of his military, security and intelligence chiefs.  “It is clear today,” Putin said, referring to the Americans, French, Germans, and British, “that the Western curators of the Kiev regime are certainly disappointed with the results of the counteroffensive that the current Ukrainian authorities announced in previous months. There are no results, at least for now.”

 “The whole world sees that the vaunted Western, supposedly invulnerable, military equipment is on fire, and is often even inferior to some of the Soviet-made weapons in terms of its tactical and technical characteristics.”  

Then on the topic of Poland and Galicia,   Putin makes the most important statement by a Russian leader in more than a hundred years.  Putin warns the Polish government, together with the Lithuanians, not to make a troop move on Galicia’s capital Lvov,  as the Germans had done in 1941. He also warns Berlin not to imagine they can recover the old Prussian or the more recent Third Reich sway in those territories.

Between the lines also,  Putin issued an invitation to two of the ruling factions in Kiev – the military command and the Lvov Banderites  – that they should remove Zelensky quickly,  before they lose what will be left of their territory,  after the Russian Army goes on the offensive. If they want to keep Galicia, “this, I repeat”, Putin said, “is in the end their business. If they want to relinquish or sell off something in order to pay their bosses, as traitors usually do, that’s their business. We will not interfere in this.”

Putin’s smoke signal carried a subliminal meaning. He didn’t identify the Biden administration. Instead, he implied that Zelensky is the Americans’ underboss;  and that if the Ukrainians want to survive the war in which everything made in America is “on fire”, the Ukrainians don’t have long.

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by Editor - Saturday, July 22nd, 2023
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

Officially speaking, the Russians ended the year-long Black Sea Grain Initiative by refusing to renew it on July 17.

Practically, it has been doomed for weeks.  The Ukrainian attacks on the Togliatti-Odessa ammonia pipeline (June 8) and the Taman ship-loading terminal (June 2); Ukrainian efforts to use the grain carriers in the United Nations-supervised sea corridor to conceal imports of weapons and the launch of naval drones aimed at the Crimean Bridge, Russian Black Sea fleet vessels,  and other shore targets; the refusal of the NATO states to lift their sanctions against the Russian trade to implement the terms of the original UN agreement — at the same time as they are stopping Ukrainian exports from entering the European Union (EU) at dumping prices – this is what killed the deal.

That it had benefitted the Ukraine and the EU states more than it benefited Russia has not been an obstacle to Russian renewal of the terms until now, but too embarrassing for the EU states to admit, and their media to report.    

President Vladimir Zelensky’s spokesman said the Russians are now attempting “to destroy the ability to supply food to the countries of the global south”.   This line of Russia at war with the world was picked up by Josep Borrell, the EU’s foreign minister: “If this grain is not only stopped but [also] destroyed . . . this is going to create a huge food crisis in the world…The ministers will have to discuss how to proceed, but there is only one solution: to increase the military support to Ukraine. If they are being bombed, we have to provide anti-aerial capacities.”  “Hundreds of thousands of people, not to say millions, urgently need the grain from Ukraine,” echoed the German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, “which is why we are working with all our international partners so that the grain in Ukraine does not rot in silos in the next few weeks, but reaches the people of the world who urgently need it.”  

The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres repeated that Russia’s war in the Ukraine was a war against food supplies, low wheat prices,  and survival from starvation worldwide. “Today’s decision by the Russian Federation will strike a blow to people in need everywhere.”  “Struggling people everywhere and developing countries don’t have a choice. Hundreds of millions of people face hunger and consumers are confronting a global cost-of-living crisis. They will pay the price.”

White House officials claimed the Russians are weaponizing food. “Russia’s decision to resume its effective blockade of Ukrainian ports and prevent this grain from getting to markets will harm people all over the world,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said at a White House briefing.  

These claims aren’t true. They are “clashes with shippers’ reality”, a Bloomberg report acknowledged.  Like almost every scheme the corruptly clever Zelensky (lead image, left) and the corruptly stupid Joseph Biden (right) have devised in the current war, the conversion of the fight for Odessa and Ukraine’s other Black Sea ports into a war to starve the hungriest peoples of the world is failing.

Instead, the battle for Odessa has begun where the electric war to turn off the city’s lights left off.   The end of the Black Sea grain initiative will profit the Russian grain and fertilizer exporters by a big margin, compared to the past year; the neediest country importers will gain from direct Russian shipments at low to zero price;  and the Ukraine will lose, not only its remaining ports and their trading and shipping infrastructure, but also its sea lanes southward.

At the same time, Ukraine’s neighbours in the European Union (EU) are closing the river lanes, roads,  and rail lines to Ukrainian grain exports northward and westward. That’s weaponizing food – but the Europeans are doing it to protect their own farmers.

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by Editor - Thursday, July 20th, 2023
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By John Helmer, Moscow
  @bears_with

On the battlefield the Ukraine has pioneered the Mosquito Tactic – that’s sending units of dozens of soldiers running towards Russian defence fortifications in several swarms at the same time, across a half-dozen salients up and down the line of contact. In parallel, in the air and on the sea President Vladimir Zelensky and his general staff have devised the Bloody Pinprick Tactic – that’s drones exploding on Russian targets like the Crimean Bridge or the Kremlin Senate Dome.

The purpose of both, mosquitoes and pinpricks, is warmaking as public relations, Zelensky is advertising the illusion that the Ukrainian army can win its offensive against Russia, no matter  how great the loss in Ukrainian men and materiel; notwithstanding how little the impact on Russian forces.

The real target of this bloody PR isn’t the Russians. It is Zelensky’s NATO allies and paymasters who secretly warned him during the July 11-12 NATO summit meeting that the cashflow and the enthusiasm are already running down,  and may be cut by Christmas. The tactic of bloody PR means making daily defeat look like  imminent victory, with conditions: NATO fighter-bombers  pretending to be Ukrainian; Polish troops around Lvov pretending to be the revival of the Polish-Lithuanian union of 1386;  and grain carriers as warships on the Black Sea, pretending to feed the hungriest populations of the world.

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by Editor - Tuesday, July 18th, 2023
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