By John Helmer, Moscow

The ancients were pretty sure that when Zeus tossed his lightning and thunder bolts, he wasn’t well-intentioned, let alone fair-minded. It’s that way too in Russia when electricity gets distributed between the big shots and ordinary folk. The ancients were also sure Zeus could be bought off, but obviously not by those who couldn’t afford the temple offerings.

Last month, when Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, followed by President Vladimir Putin, and then Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev announced that they are going to freeze Russian power tariffs for next year, in effect distributing electricity at a discount to big shots, but keeping in place the 12% increase in the tariff for ordinary citizens, implemented on July 1, they were rewarding those in a position to pay off.
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by John Helmer - Monday, September 30th, 2013
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By John Helmer, Moscow

If the US Government and Congress believe they have the right to impose sanctions on Russian individuals and companies for conduct that is legal in Russian and international law, what would happen if the boot were on the other foot – if the Russian Government imposed sanctions on US individuals and corporations for violating Russian law?

The question arises often, very often. Two weeks ago, for instance, a group of US Senators told the US Treasury that VTB, Vnesheconombank and Gazprombank should be penalized for violating “international sanctions by enabling Syria to pay for imports and receive funds for exports. This assistance eases much of the financial burden on the Assad regime, allowing it to continue military purchases and pay the soldiers that sustain the war in Syria.” For background on Russia’s legal position toward the Syrian conflict, read this.
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by John Helmer - Sunday, September 29th, 2013
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By John Helmer, Moscow

If the common Russian opinion of who runs the country matches the evidence of who really runs Russia, that’s a reliable test of a democratic culture.

There’s a catch. If just one man and a handful of his trusties run the country, and noone else, not even the very rich or very honest, can improve on their reputation for trust, capability, or popularity, then this must be a democracy without competition. Compared to democracies like the United Kingdom, United States, Italy, or France, where those who run the country are untrusted, incapable, and unpopular, and where the power elite buys election results, respectability, lordships, freedom from taxation, and immunity from prosecution, Russia must be a model of something unusual in politics.
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by John Helmer - Wednesday, September 25th, 2013
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By John Helmer, Moscow

This week it’s hot and humid in Conakry, capital of the west African Republic of Guinea. It will hit 30 degrees in the day; the humidity will be 100%. Until Saturday, when the much-postponed, much-rigged parliamentary elections will be held, there will be occasional thunderstorms, sunny spells, and an inch of rain per day.

But there’s not enough water to douse the allegations that the President of Guinea, Alpha Conde, took payoffs through go-betweens to rig the presidential elections of June and November 2010; put up Guinea’s mining concessions for a fresh round of corrupt awards; and let Rusal off the hook of a billion-dollar compensation order by the Guinean Government and local courts.
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by John Helmer - Tuesday, September 24th, 2013
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By John Helmer, Moscow

How many angels can dance on the point of a pin was a trick question for medieval scholars: that’s because, theologically speaking, angels have no substance. So the correct answer is that an infinity of them can sit on the point. Alternatively, since Thomas Aquinas (d. March 7, 1274) claimed two angels cannot occupy the same space, the answer is only one angel.

Fill a modern room on the bank of Lake Valdai last week with a couple of hundred academicians and reporters, most of them from states bent on regime change in Russia, and the headline question they want to debate is: will President Vladimir Putin (standing figure centre) run for re-election in 2018?
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by John Helmer - Monday, September 23rd, 2013
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By John Helmer, Moscow

If QIWI, the Russian electronic payments operator, is such a good thing, why did the market cut the stock price the minute QIWI announced this week that it’s planning to sell off more of the control shareholders’ shares?

QIWI was co-founded by Alisher Usmanov’s internet portal company, Mail.ru, and Usmanov continues to be one of QIWI’s biggest clients and sources of cashflow. In May, QIWI launched an initial public offering (IPO) of 12.5 million shares on the US Nasdaq exchange. Usmanov was the biggest seller at the time. Through Mail.ru, he started with 21.4% of the issued share capital, and ended up with 19.4% of the voting shares. He was followed by Andrei Romanenko, QIWI’s board chairman and one of the co-founders, who started with 12.7%, and ended with 8.6%. For the May 3, 2013, prospectus, read this.
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by John Helmer - Friday, September 20th, 2013
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By John Helmer, Moscow

The last time President Vladimir Putin publicly criticized Oleg Deripaska, chief executive of United Company Rusal and Russia’s most indebted man, it was at Pikalevo, Leningrad region, in June of 2009. Putin tossed his pen at Deripaska, told him to sign a back-pay agreement, and demanded his pen back. Referring to the failure to pay wages to the town’s alumina and cement factory workers, Putin told Deripaska: “Why has your factory been so neglected? They’ve turned it into a rubbish dump. Why was everyone running around like cockroaches before my arrival? Why was no one capable of taking decisions?..you’ve made thousands of residents of Pikalevo hostages of your ambition, your nonprofessionalism and maybe your greed. Thousands of people. It’s totally unacceptable.”

The pen-tossing and televised chastisement of Deripaska were followed by substantial new state bank and budget funds to cover Deripaska’s payouts at Pikalevo. In September, after everyone had taken their summer holidays, Deripaska claimed Putin hadn’t meant what he seemed on camera to be doing. “The problem”, said Deripaska, “was that the reality of the meeting event and the picture, which was transmitted by the television channels, did not coincide. This was a simple case of editing. Actually, everything went in another way. What happened at the meeting was very productive; the decisions taken to revive manufacture have been implemented.”
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by John Helmer - Thursday, September 19th, 2013
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By John Helmer, Moscow

Diamond prices have been growing in the global market since January, but depending on your choice of accounting period, the growth rate is either not much; or not at all; or negative since July. Alrosa, the state-owned diamond miner directed by Fyodor Andreyev (image left), reported its latest financial results this week, noting “positive dynamics in the diamond markets in H1 2013, which resulted in a 7% growth of rough diamond prices since the beginning of 2013.”

The company is hoping to make a start selling 14% of its shares on the Moscow Stock Exchange next month, so it’s putting its best foot forward. A bloc of 7% will come from the 51% shareholding of the federal government; another 7% bloc will come from the Sakha republic’s 32% holding. The regional authorities want the privatization to go no further; so they won’t be too unhappy if share sale demand fails to reach Andreyev’s top of the range valuation at $15 billion. Vladimir Potanin, who was interested in taking over the company in the late 1990s, announced this week he isn’t interested in buying shares, and for good measure accused the federal government of artificially stoking demand.
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by John Helmer - Wednesday, September 18th, 2013
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By John Helmer, Moscow

The international ratings agency Fitch has downgraded its assessment of the Ukrainian pipemaking group Interpipe, owned by Victor Pinchuk, warning that Russian action since July to impose penalty duties on Ukrainian pipe imports is causing a serious loss of sales and a grave shortage of cash for Interpipe. If that continues, a release from Fitch says, the company “is unlikely to be able to meet its scheduled debt repayments.” The Fitch report was issued in London on Monday. It comes just three months after the agency had reported that the outlook for Interpipe as stable, confirming at the time Interpipe’s B- rating.

In the latest action Fitch says it is downgrading Interpipe to CCC. Sources close to recent talks between Fitch and Interpipe describe the triple-C rating as indicating, according to the Fitch methodology, the high probability of default.
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by John Helmer - Tuesday, September 17th, 2013
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By John Helmer, Moscow

The takeover announced at the start of this month by Global Ports Investments (GPI) of the National Container Company (NCC) gives control of more than 72% of container transportation volume in Russia’s west, including the Black and Baltic Seas; and more than 82% of Russian box volume in the northwest, from the Gulf of Finland to the Arctic. Calculations by Moscow maritime expert Alexei Bezborodov indicate that with accumulated capacity of 1.7 to 1.8 million Teu per annum, Global Ports is taking “a monopoly position in the market”. Teu stands for twenty-foot equivalent unit, a measure of container length and of cargo capacity roughly equal to 22.6 tonnes.

As of August 31, the volume of the total Russian market stands at 3.5 million Teu. In the Russian Fareast, volume is currently 1 million Teu.
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by John Helmer - Sunday, September 15th, 2013
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